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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms, and associated/isolated risk for damaging gusts, may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Bentley.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms, and associated/isolated risk for damaging gusts, may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Bentley.. 08/07/2019 Read more

MD 1662 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MO...NORTHEAST AR...WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...southern MO...northeast AR...western TN...northern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071635Z - 071830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Renewed storm development along the gust front from an ongoing MCS is possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an MCS moving southeast across the Ozarks with a well-defined gust front trailing westward into northeast OK and arcing northwestward into south-central KS. An MCV is now being identified across west-central MO and this feature will continue to move to the southeast across the Ozarks early this afternoon. Temperatures are warming through the upper 80s over northeast AR into northern MS with surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s. The 12z Little Rock raob showed 2300 J/kg MLCAPE with around 60kt north-northwesterly flow around 250mb. The additional heating has resulted in around 3400 J/kg MLCAPE at Little Rock according to the latest RAP forecast sounding. The latest expectation is for the ongoing MCS to continue southeast into northeast AR while intensifying over the next few hours. The potential for damaging gusts will correspondingly increase with the storm intensification. It is uncertain whether the swath for damaging gust potential is greatest with the storms moving southeast from Rolla, MO or if additional development further southwest occurs. Regardless, convective trends will be monitored in the short term for a possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance. ..Smith.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 37409168 35998908 34788860 34609002 36209314 37409168 Read more

The Five Fire started at 12:52 PM on August 3rd. The fire started on the North Bound side of Interstate 5 - two miles north of Templin Highway. As of 3:32 PM, it is 150 acres with 20% containment. The cause of the fire is under investigation. At this time, there are no evacuations or structures threatened. Angeles National Forest and Los Angeles County Fire have responded to the incident. Angeles has committed 250 firefighters to the incident. California Highway Patrol (CHP) has reopened all lanes of the Northbound I-5. At 1 PM (8/5), the #4 lane will be closed briefly so firefighters may retrieve fire hose from the incident. Please contact CHP for additional road closure information.

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EMP TO 30 WSW TOP TO 20 S TOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-031-111-139-071420- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE COFFEY LYON OSAGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 558 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 070905Z - 071600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday morning from 405 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An area of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move southeastward from southeastern Nebraska into eastern Kansas for several more hours. The storms will move along a northwest to southeast gradient of instability. Relatively fast storm movement along with moderate deep-layer shear will be adequate for a damaging-wind threat through mid to late morning. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Concordia KS to 60 miles north of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32035. ...Broyles Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move across western Ontario and the upper Mississippi Valley today as northwest mid-level flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front in northern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota will advance southeastward reaching Upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and eastern Nebraska this afternoon. As surface heating takes place ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the instability gradient near the front during the mid to late afternoon. Convection is first expected to initiate in Upper Michigan ahead of the upper-level trough with storms developing west-southwestward into northern Wisconsin. It is uncertain how far west convection can develop but at least a few storms will be possible in southern Minnesota. RAP forecast soundings along the axis of instability late this afternoon show 0-6 km shear near 35 kt, steep lapse rates in the lowest 1 km AGL and veered west-southwesterly winds just ahead of the front. This setup should be sufficient for damaging wind gusts with the multicell line segments that organize and move southeastward during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible with convection that develops in the strongest instability. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... Northwest mid-level flow will remain in place today across the central states as a couple of minor shortwave troughs move southeastward across the region. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to move into the lower Missouri Valley today. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this feature in eastern Kansas. Substantial uncertainty exists concerning how long the severe threat with the MCS will be maintained. Some models suggest that the MCS will become marginally severe by the time it reaches southeast Kansas. Some of the same models regenerate storms by afternoon near the instability axis in south-central Nebraska and move this new convection southeastward into central Kansas. Deep-layer shear along this corridor along with steepening low-level lapse rates could result in the development of another cold pool. If that happens, then a wind-damage threat can be expected to redevelop late this afternoon into early this evening from north-central Kansas southeastward into far northeast Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri. ...Eastern Seaboard... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern states today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly southeastward across the lower Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough will deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be in the upper 60s F to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, a corridor of instability will develop from the eastern Carolinas northward to eastern New York and western New England. As the upper-level trough approaches, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop west of the strongest instability with convection moving east-northeastward across the region. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range in much of the eastern states, steep low-level lapse rates will make conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts with the better-organized multicell line segments. The severe threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move across western Ontario and the upper Mississippi Valley today as northwest mid-level flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front in northern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota will advance southeastward reaching Upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and eastern Nebraska this afternoon. As surface heating takes place ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the instability gradient near the front during the mid to late afternoon. Convection is first expected to initiate in Upper Michigan ahead of the upper-level trough with storms developing west-southwestward into northern Wisconsin. It is uncertain how far west convection can develop but at least a few storms will be possible in southern Minnesota. RAP forecast soundings along the axis of instability late this afternoon show 0-6 km shear near 35 kt, steep lapse rates in the lowest 1 km AGL and veered west-southwesterly winds just ahead of the front. This setup should be sufficient for damaging wind gusts with the multicell line segments that organize and move southeastward during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible with convection that develops in the strongest instability. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... Northwest mid-level flow will remain in place today across the central states as a couple of minor shortwave troughs move southeastward across the region. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to move into the lower Missouri Valley today. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this feature in eastern Kansas. Substantial uncertainty exists concerning how long the severe threat with the MCS will be maintained. Some models suggest that the MCS will become marginally severe by the time it reaches southeast Kansas. Some of the same models regenerate storms by afternoon near the instability axis in south-central Nebraska and move this new convection southeastward into central Kansas. Deep-layer shear along this corridor along with steepening low-level lapse rates could result in the development of another cold pool. If that happens, then a wind-damage threat can be expected to redevelop late this afternoon into early this evening from north-central Kansas southeastward into far northeast Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri. ...Eastern Seaboard... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern states today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly southeastward across the lower Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough will deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be in the upper 60s F to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, a corridor of instability will develop from the eastern Carolinas northward to eastern New York and western New England. As the upper-level trough approaches, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop west of the strongest instability with convection moving east-northeastward across the region. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range in much of the eastern states, steep low-level lapse rates will make conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts with the better-organized multicell line segments. The severe threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move across western Ontario and the upper Mississippi Valley today as northwest mid-level flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front in northern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota will advance southeastward reaching Upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and eastern Nebraska this afternoon. As surface heating takes place ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the instability gradient near the front during the mid to late afternoon. Convection is first expected to initiate in Upper Michigan ahead of the upper-level trough with storms developing west-southwestward into northern Wisconsin. It is uncertain how far west convection can develop but at least a few storms will be possible in southern Minnesota. RAP forecast soundings along the axis of instability late this afternoon show 0-6 km shear near 35 kt, steep lapse rates in the lowest 1 km AGL and veered west-southwesterly winds just ahead of the front. This setup should be sufficient for damaging wind gusts with the multicell line segments that organize and move southeastward during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible with convection that develops in the strongest instability. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... Northwest mid-level flow will remain in place today across the central states as a couple of minor shortwave troughs move southeastward across the region. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to move into the lower Missouri Valley today. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this feature in eastern Kansas. Substantial uncertainty exists concerning how long the severe threat with the MCS will be maintained. Some models suggest that the MCS will become marginally severe by the time it reaches southeast Kansas. Some of the same models regenerate storms by afternoon near the instability axis in south-central Nebraska and move this new convection southeastward into central Kansas. Deep-layer shear along this corridor along with steepening low-level lapse rates could result in the development of another cold pool. If that happens, then a wind-damage threat can be expected to redevelop late this afternoon into early this evening from north-central Kansas southeastward into far northeast Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri. ...Eastern Seaboard... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern states today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly southeastward across the lower Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough will deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be in the upper 60s F to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, a corridor of instability will develop from the eastern Carolinas northward to eastern New York and western New England. As the upper-level trough approaches, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop west of the strongest instability with convection moving east-northeastward across the region. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range in much of the eastern states, steep low-level lapse rates will make conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts with the better-organized multicell line segments. The severe threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move across western Ontario and the upper Mississippi Valley today as northwest mid-level flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front in northern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota will advance southeastward reaching Upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and eastern Nebraska this afternoon. As surface heating takes place ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the instability gradient near the front during the mid to late afternoon. Convection is first expected to initiate in Upper Michigan ahead of the upper-level trough with storms developing west-southwestward into northern Wisconsin. It is uncertain how far west convection can develop but at least a few storms will be possible in southern Minnesota. RAP forecast soundings along the axis of instability late this afternoon show 0-6 km shear near 35 kt, steep lapse rates in the lowest 1 km AGL and veered west-southwesterly winds just ahead of the front. This setup should be sufficient for damaging wind gusts with the multicell line segments that organize and move southeastward during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible with convection that develops in the strongest instability. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... Northwest mid-level flow will remain in place today across the central states as a couple of minor shortwave troughs move southeastward across the region. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to move into the lower Missouri Valley today. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this feature in eastern Kansas. Substantial uncertainty exists concerning how long the severe threat with the MCS will be maintained. Some models suggest that the MCS will become marginally severe by the time it reaches southeast Kansas. Some of the same models regenerate storms by afternoon near the instability axis in south-central Nebraska and move this new convection southeastward into central Kansas. Deep-layer shear along this corridor along with steepening low-level lapse rates could result in the development of another cold pool. If that happens, then a wind-damage threat can be expected to redevelop late this afternoon into early this evening from north-central Kansas southeastward into far northeast Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri. ...Eastern Seaboard... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern states today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly southeastward across the lower Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough will deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be in the upper 60s F to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, a corridor of instability will develop from the eastern Carolinas northward to eastern New York and western New England. As the upper-level trough approaches, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop west of the strongest instability with convection moving east-northeastward across the region. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range in much of the eastern states, steep low-level lapse rates will make conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts with the better-organized multicell line segments. The severe threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0726 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...CENTRAL PLAINS AND EASTERN SEABOARD... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with wind damage and isolated large hail will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms with isolated damaging wind gusts may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move across western Ontario and the upper Mississippi Valley today as northwest mid-level flow remains over the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a cold front in northern Minnesota and eastern South Dakota will advance southeastward reaching Upper Michigan, northern Wisconsin, southern Minnesota and eastern Nebraska this afternoon. As surface heating takes place ahead of the front, surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will contribute to an axis of moderate instability. Thunderstorm development will be possible along the instability gradient near the front during the mid to late afternoon. Convection is first expected to initiate in Upper Michigan ahead of the upper-level trough with storms developing west-southwestward into northern Wisconsin. It is uncertain how far west convection can develop but at least a few storms will be possible in southern Minnesota. RAP forecast soundings along the axis of instability late this afternoon show 0-6 km shear near 35 kt, steep lapse rates in the lowest 1 km AGL and veered west-southwesterly winds just ahead of the front. This setup should be sufficient for damaging wind gusts with the multicell line segments that organize and move southeastward during the late afternoon and early evening. Hail will also be possible with convection that develops in the strongest instability. ...Central Plains/Ozarks... Northwest mid-level flow will remain in place today across the central states as a couple of minor shortwave troughs move southeastward across the region. The southern shortwave trough is forecast to move into the lower Missouri Valley today. Thunderstorms are ongoing ahead of this feature in eastern Kansas. Substantial uncertainty exists concerning how long the severe threat with the MCS will be maintained. Some models suggest that the MCS will become marginally severe by the time it reaches southeast Kansas. Some of the same models regenerate storms by afternoon near the instability axis in south-central Nebraska and move this new convection southeastward into central Kansas. Deep-layer shear along this corridor along with steepening low-level lapse rates could result in the development of another cold pool. If that happens, then a wind-damage threat can be expected to redevelop late this afternoon into early this evening from north-central Kansas southeastward into far northeast Oklahoma and far southwest Missouri. ...Eastern Seaboard... An upper-level trough will move across the eastern states today as southwest mid-level flow remains in place ahead of the trough from the Mid-Atlantic into New England. At the surface, a cold front will advance slowly southeastward across the lower Great Lakes. A pre-frontal trough will deepen across the Eastern Seaboard. Surface dewpoints ahead of the pre-frontal trough will be in the upper 60s F to near 70 F. As surface temperatures warm today, a corridor of instability will develop from the eastern Carolinas northward to eastern New York and western New England. As the upper-level trough approaches, scattered to numerous thunderstorms should develop west of the strongest instability with convection moving east-northeastward across the region. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to be in the 20 to 30 kt range in much of the eastern states, steep low-level lapse rates will make conditions favorable for damaging wind gusts with the better-organized multicell line segments. The severe threat should be maximized in the mid to late afternoon. ..Broyles/Edwards.. 08/07/2019 Read more

MD 1661 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 558... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS AND EXTREME WESTERN MO.
Mesoscale Discussion 1661 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0657 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...portions of eastern KS and extreme western MO. Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 558... Valid 071157Z - 071400Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 558 continues. SUMMARY...An MCS continues to move southeastward across the watch area, offering the threat for occasionally severe/damaging gusts. Convective and instability trends have been fluctuating, and will be monitored for the possibility of an additional watch to the southeast into more of eastern KS and parts of western MO. DISCUSSION...The complex continues to more atop a relatively stable near-surface layer yielding 150-250 J/kg of MLCINH, which may be suppressing the potential for more than isolated severe gusts to reach surface. A near-severe gust (48 kt) was measured at MHK at 1054Z, with 42 kt at TOP at 1141Z. Slight weakening/disorganization has been noted in the past 1/2 to 1 hour in radar presentation and IR imagery (with some cloud-top warming), recent observed gusts have not been as intense as farther northwest in southern NE, and the surface isallobaric perturbation's magnitude has lessened in the last couple hours. While these trends additively indicate that the MCS may have peaked, at least for the time being, they are subtle, and additional strengthening may still occur. A very moist air mass and a zone of favorable baroclinicity continue to extend southeast of its location. 500-1500 J/kg MLCAPE and 1500-3000 J/kg MUCAPE are evident along the projected track near the frontal zone, which extends from the complex southeastward over west-central/ southwestern MO. Another watch across the KS/MO border region and more of eastern KS may be needed, especially if any re-intensification trends are noted that indicate strengthening forced ascent via internally driven cold-pool processes. ..Edwards.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT... LAT...LON 39479719 39139603 39339513 38849450 38349416 38059414 37929445 37829519 38029587 38439645 39479719 Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SLN TO 20 NNE CNK TO 35 ENE CNK TO 10 NNE MHK TO 20 ENE MHK TO 35 N TOP TO 25 SSE FNB. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING. ..EDWARDS..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-111-115-127-139-143- 149-157-161-169-177-197-201-071240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON MARION MORRIS OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW SLN TO 20 NNE CNK TO 35 ENE CNK TO 10 NNE MHK TO 20 ENE MHK TO 35 N TOP TO 25 SSE FNB. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING. ..EDWARDS..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-111-115-127-139-143- 149-157-161-169-177-197-201-071240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON MARION MORRIS OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071110
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the end of the week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
the development of this system over the weekend while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph and offshore of the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071109
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW CNK TO 35 NNW CNK TO 5 SSE FNB. ..EDWARDS..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC017-027-029-031-041-045-059-061-085-087-111-115-117-127-131- 139-143-149-157-161-169-177-197-201-071140- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHASE CLAY CLOUD COFFEY DICKINSON DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON LYON MARION MARSHALL MORRIS NEMAHA OSAGE OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE REPUBLIC RILEY SALINE SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0558 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0558 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more