Aggregator

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE FYV TO 5 WSW JBR TO 5 NE POF. ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-023-031-035-037-055-063-067-077-093-095-107-111-117-123- 141-145-147-072100- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLEBURNE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE INDEPENDENCE JACKSON LEE MISSISSIPPI MONROE PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE ST. FRANCIS VAN BUREN WHITE WOODRUFF MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-072100- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN TATE TUNICA MOC023-069-155-072100- Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
000-072100- STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ILG TO 20 W TTN TO 20 NE ABE TO 15 SSW MSV TO 30 NNW POU TO 45 SSE UCA TO 35 E UCA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668 ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...GYX...BGM...CTP...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-072100- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC001-003-005-072100- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-015-029-035-041-072100- MD Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SOP TO 5 E RWI TO 35 W ORF TO 5 NW RIC TO 35 WSW DCA TO 20 NW DCA TO 30 NE BWI. ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...MHX...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-072100- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-009-017-019-025-033-037-039-045-047-072100- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER HARFORD PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NCC013-015-029-031-037-041-049-051-053-055-061-065-073-079-085- 091-093-095-101-103-105-107-117-125-133-137-139-143-147-153-163- 165-177-187-191-195-072100- NC Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST...AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing both wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains through tonight. Additional storms, and associated risk for isolated damaging wind gusts, will continue from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been nudged southward to include more of north-central OK. A outflow boundary from earlier convection across MO/KS has stalled across this area, with the 18Z LMN sounding showing around 30 kt of northwesterly flow at 500 mb and a well-mixed boundary layer. Any storm that can form in this environment would be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and large hail given the strong instability present along with sufficient shear. Based on radar and observational trends, only minor changes have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas extending from the Carolinas to the Northeast. Damaging wind gusts should continue to be the main threat with ongoing storms through this evening, although isolated marginally severe hail may also occur. See Mesoscale Discussions 1667 and 1668 for more information on the near-term severe threat across these regions. The Marginal and Slight Risk area across southern/central MO have been trimmed as a loosely organized clusters of storms continues southward into AR and western TN this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds will continue to be the main threat with these storms. ..Gleason.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST...AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing both wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains through tonight. Additional storms, and associated risk for isolated damaging wind gusts, will continue from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been nudged southward to include more of north-central OK. A outflow boundary from earlier convection across MO/KS has stalled across this area, with the 18Z LMN sounding showing around 30 kt of northwesterly flow at 500 mb and a well-mixed boundary layer. Any storm that can form in this environment would be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and large hail given the strong instability present along with sufficient shear. Based on radar and observational trends, only minor changes have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas extending from the Carolinas to the Northeast. Damaging wind gusts should continue to be the main threat with ongoing storms through this evening, although isolated marginally severe hail may also occur. See Mesoscale Discussions 1667 and 1668 for more information on the near-term severe threat across these regions. The Marginal and Slight Risk area across southern/central MO have been trimmed as a loosely organized clusters of storms continues southward into AR and western TN this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds will continue to be the main threat with these storms. ..Gleason.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST...CAROLINAS TO NORTHEAST...AND CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID-SOUTH... ...SUMMARY... Strong to locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing both wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains through tonight. Additional storms, and associated risk for isolated damaging wind gusts, will continue from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast through this evening. ...20Z Update... The Marginal Risk has been nudged southward to include more of north-central OK. A outflow boundary from earlier convection across MO/KS has stalled across this area, with the 18Z LMN sounding showing around 30 kt of northwesterly flow at 500 mb and a well-mixed boundary layer. Any storm that can form in this environment would be capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts and large hail given the strong instability present along with sufficient shear. Based on radar and observational trends, only minor changes have been made to the Marginal and Slight Risk areas extending from the Carolinas to the Northeast. Damaging wind gusts should continue to be the main threat with ongoing storms through this evening, although isolated marginally severe hail may also occur. See Mesoscale Discussions 1667 and 1668 for more information on the near-term severe threat across these regions. The Marginal and Slight Risk area across southern/central MO have been trimmed as a loosely organized clusters of storms continues southward into AR and western TN this afternoon. Isolated damaging winds will continue to be the main threat with these storms. ..Gleason.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The ISODRYT area has been extended into portions of northeastern Washington. Some potential exists for a storm or two to develop during the afternoon. Aside from a lightning ignition risk, a very dry boundary layer will promote gusty outflow winds from any storm. Given the potential impact to the ongoing Williams Flats fire, this extension seems prudent. Scattered coverage of storms still is possible in portions of west-central Nevada and points northward. Too much uncertainty remains as to how dry storms will be to introduce a SCTDRYT area at this time. For more details, please see the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper ridge across the Southwest into the Intermountain West is expected to shift slowly eastward on Thursday, as a deep upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Gradually increasing moisture in advance of the upper trough will continue to support at least isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Great Basin and interior Northwest. ...Central/northern NV into the interior Northwest... Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase compared to D1/Wednesday across central/northern NV into the interior Northwest on Thursday, as moisture gradually increases and the deep upper trough impinges on the region. Given the presence of potentially scattered thunderstorms overlapping regions of receptive fuels, lightning-related ignitions will again be possible, though there will also be greater potential for rainfall compared to D1/Wednesday. The greatest thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be over central/northern NV, but due to lingering uncertainty regarding convective evolution and potentially greater rainfall with any thunderstorm activity, the ISODRYT area is maintained in this outlook with no upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The ISODRYT area has been extended into portions of northeastern Washington. Some potential exists for a storm or two to develop during the afternoon. Aside from a lightning ignition risk, a very dry boundary layer will promote gusty outflow winds from any storm. Given the potential impact to the ongoing Williams Flats fire, this extension seems prudent. Scattered coverage of storms still is possible in portions of west-central Nevada and points northward. Too much uncertainty remains as to how dry storms will be to introduce a SCTDRYT area at this time. For more details, please see the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper ridge across the Southwest into the Intermountain West is expected to shift slowly eastward on Thursday, as a deep upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Gradually increasing moisture in advance of the upper trough will continue to support at least isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Great Basin and interior Northwest. ...Central/northern NV into the interior Northwest... Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase compared to D1/Wednesday across central/northern NV into the interior Northwest on Thursday, as moisture gradually increases and the deep upper trough impinges on the region. Given the presence of potentially scattered thunderstorms overlapping regions of receptive fuels, lightning-related ignitions will again be possible, though there will also be greater potential for rainfall compared to D1/Wednesday. The greatest thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be over central/northern NV, but due to lingering uncertainty regarding convective evolution and potentially greater rainfall with any thunderstorm activity, the ISODRYT area is maintained in this outlook with no upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The ISODRYT area has been extended into portions of northeastern Washington. Some potential exists for a storm or two to develop during the afternoon. Aside from a lightning ignition risk, a very dry boundary layer will promote gusty outflow winds from any storm. Given the potential impact to the ongoing Williams Flats fire, this extension seems prudent. Scattered coverage of storms still is possible in portions of west-central Nevada and points northward. Too much uncertainty remains as to how dry storms will be to introduce a SCTDRYT area at this time. For more details, please see the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper ridge across the Southwest into the Intermountain West is expected to shift slowly eastward on Thursday, as a deep upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Gradually increasing moisture in advance of the upper trough will continue to support at least isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Great Basin and interior Northwest. ...Central/northern NV into the interior Northwest... Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase compared to D1/Wednesday across central/northern NV into the interior Northwest on Thursday, as moisture gradually increases and the deep upper trough impinges on the region. Given the presence of potentially scattered thunderstorms overlapping regions of receptive fuels, lightning-related ignitions will again be possible, though there will also be greater potential for rainfall compared to D1/Wednesday. The greatest thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be over central/northern NV, but due to lingering uncertainty regarding convective evolution and potentially greater rainfall with any thunderstorm activity, the ISODRYT area is maintained in this outlook with no upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z The forecast generally remains on track. The ISODRYT area has been extended into portions of northeastern Washington. Some potential exists for a storm or two to develop during the afternoon. Aside from a lightning ignition risk, a very dry boundary layer will promote gusty outflow winds from any storm. Given the potential impact to the ongoing Williams Flats fire, this extension seems prudent. Scattered coverage of storms still is possible in portions of west-central Nevada and points northward. Too much uncertainty remains as to how dry storms will be to introduce a SCTDRYT area at this time. For more details, please see the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... The upper ridge across the Southwest into the Intermountain West is expected to shift slowly eastward on Thursday, as a deep upper trough approaches the Pacific Coast. Gradually increasing moisture in advance of the upper trough will continue to support at least isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Great Basin and interior Northwest. ...Central/northern NV into the interior Northwest... Thunderstorm coverage will likely increase compared to D1/Wednesday across central/northern NV into the interior Northwest on Thursday, as moisture gradually increases and the deep upper trough impinges on the region. Given the presence of potentially scattered thunderstorms overlapping regions of receptive fuels, lightning-related ignitions will again be possible, though there will also be greater potential for rainfall compared to D1/Wednesday. The greatest thunderstorm coverage is forecast to be over central/northern NV, but due to lingering uncertainty regarding convective evolution and potentially greater rainfall with any thunderstorm activity, the ISODRYT area is maintained in this outlook with no upgrade at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FYV TO 20 NW ARG TO 15 NW POF. ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC021-023-031-035-037-055-063-065-067-075-077-087-093-095-101- 107-111-117-121-123-129-135-137-141-143-145-147-072040- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY CLEBURNE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LEE MADISON MISSISSIPPI MONROE NEWTON PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-072040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE COAHOMA DESOTO MARSHALL PANOLA QUITMAN TATE TUNICA Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW RDU TO 15 NW RWI TO 15 SW RIC TO 35 WSW DCA TO 20 NNW DCA TO 25 NE BWI. ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...MHX...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-072040- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-009-017-019-025-027-031-033-037-039-045-047-510-072040- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL CALVERT CHARLES DORCHESTER HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
000-072020- STATUS REPORT ON WW 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CXY TO 15 W MSV TO 15 E BGM. ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...PHI...GYX...BGM...CTP...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 561 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-072020- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC001-003-005-072020- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX MDC011-015-029-035-041-072020- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL KENT Read more

MD 1667 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 560... FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1667 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560... Valid 071925Z - 072030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 560 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat continues in watch 560. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms has developed from northern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. These storms will continue to move east into an environment with around 2500 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective shear around 35-40 knots per area VWPs will continue to support storm organization. Relatively weak mid-level lapse rates should continue to limit the hail threat to only a few isolated reports. RAX and AKQ VWP show weak flow below 4 km which is likely why severe winds have also been somewhat limited up to this point. However, sub-severe damaging winds remain a threat through the afternoon and evening with an isolated threat for severe wind gusts from any stronger storms. ..Bentley.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH... LAT...LON 35607917 36487815 37817750 38247706 38457593 38087571 36247548 35807539 34917617 34697668 34627720 34937801 35607917 Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 560 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...MHX...RAH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 560 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-071940- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-009-013-017-019-021-025-027-031-033-037-039-045-047- 510-071940- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT CARROLL CHARLES DORCHESTER FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY Read more

WW 0559 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW HRO TO 20 NNE FLP TO 45 NE UNO. ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...MEG...PAH...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 559 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC005-009-015-021-023-031-035-037-049-055-063-065-067-075-077- 087-089-093-095-101-107-111-117-121-123-129-135-137-141-143-145- 147-071920- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAXTER BOONE CARROLL CLAY CLEBURNE CRAIGHEAD CRITTENDEN CROSS FULTON GREENE INDEPENDENCE IZARD JACKSON LAWRENCE LEE MADISON MARION MISSISSIPPI MONROE NEWTON PHILLIPS POINSETT PRAIRIE RANDOLPH ST. FRANCIS SEARCY SHARP STONE VAN BUREN WASHINGTON WHITE WOODRUFF MSC027-033-093-107-119-137-143-071920- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0561 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0561 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 1666 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 1666 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...Northern Wisconsin and the Upper Peninsula of Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071809Z - 072015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Additional storm development is expected through the afternoon/evening. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along a cold front from the eastern Upper Peninsula of Michigan westward into northern Wisconsin. The environment is only marginally favorable for severe storms at this time with MLCAPE around 500 to 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 20 to 25 knots. However, the environment will improve through across northern Wisconsin through the day as MLCAPE is expected to increase to near 2000 J/kg and mid-level flow is expected to increase from ~25 knots presently to ~40 knots by mid-evening. As the environment improves, expect storm organization and intensity to increase. The primary threats will be large hail and damaging winds. Storm trends will continue to be monitored for the next few hours and a watch may be possible. ..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...APX...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46339305 46719229 46929072 46709030 46968910 46818756 46688663 46838537 46768487 46438476 46128584 45968666 45488739 45158763 44928819 44818940 44689108 45059209 45179235 45419274 45779325 46339305 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071753
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A low pressure area is forecast to form a few hundred miles south
of the southern coast of Mexico by the end of the week. Thereafter,
environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat conducive for
development, and a tropical depression could form early next week
while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, within a couple
of hundred miles of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening from parts of Indiana and Ohio into Pennsylvania and New York. ...Midwest into PA/NY... A northwesterly mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the Midwest on Thursday as an upper low remains centered over Hudson Bay and Ontario. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Quebec through the period. The strongest mid-level height falls/ascent should generally remain north of the international border. But, low-level convergence along a southeastward-moving front should be sufficient to initiate storms through the day across parts of the Midwest into PA/NY. Isolated convection may be ongoing Thursday across the lower Great Lakes along the cold front. Cloud debris from these early morning storms and modest mid-level lapse rates may temper destabilization somewhat ahead of the cold front, especially with northward extent in NY. Even so, strengthening mid-level winds atop a moist low-level airmass and at least modest diurnal heating will contribute to a sufficiently unstable and sheared environment to support organized storms. Relatively greater storm coverage will probably occur from central OH into western/central PA and western NY where low-level convergence along the front is strongest. Multicell clusters will probably be the dominant storm mode with around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, but some marginal supercell structures could also occur. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat with these storms as they spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, with hail being more isolated due to modest mid-level lapse rates. ...Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley... Aided by low-level warm air advection, numerous storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of KS into western MO. These storms should weaken through the mid morning as a southwesterly low-level jet slowly weakens. Potential redevelopment from eastern OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley remains unclear in the wake of the morning convection. Regardless, around 25-30 kt of mid-level west-northwesterly flow should remain across this region, and occasional storm organization could occur Thursday afternoon along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary if sufficient instability develops. Isolated strong/gusty winds would be the main threat across these areas. Additional storms may form from late Thursday afternoon into the evening along the surface boundary across northern OK/southern KS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest cores, and occasional strong downdraft winds may also be noted. Farther west, at least a marginal severe threat should develop across parts of the High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak upslope low-level flow will transport low to mid 50s dewpoints westward along the I-25 corridor, with low to mid 60s further east. Strong heating will result in at least scattered storm development over higher terrain by early afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively modest, but effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg should support sporadic strong cells capable of both large hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 08/07/2019 Read more