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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening from parts of Indiana and Ohio into Pennsylvania and New York. ...Midwest into PA/NY... A northwesterly mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the Midwest on Thursday as an upper low remains centered over Hudson Bay and Ontario. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Quebec through the period. The strongest mid-level height falls/ascent should generally remain north of the international border. But, low-level convergence along a southeastward-moving front should be sufficient to initiate storms through the day across parts of the Midwest into PA/NY. Isolated convection may be ongoing Thursday across the lower Great Lakes along the cold front. Cloud debris from these early morning storms and modest mid-level lapse rates may temper destabilization somewhat ahead of the cold front, especially with northward extent in NY. Even so, strengthening mid-level winds atop a moist low-level airmass and at least modest diurnal heating will contribute to a sufficiently unstable and sheared environment to support organized storms. Relatively greater storm coverage will probably occur from central OH into western/central PA and western NY where low-level convergence along the front is strongest. Multicell clusters will probably be the dominant storm mode with around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, but some marginal supercell structures could also occur. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat with these storms as they spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, with hail being more isolated due to modest mid-level lapse rates. ...Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley... Aided by low-level warm air advection, numerous storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of KS into western MO. These storms should weaken through the mid morning as a southwesterly low-level jet slowly weakens. Potential redevelopment from eastern OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley remains unclear in the wake of the morning convection. Regardless, around 25-30 kt of mid-level west-northwesterly flow should remain across this region, and occasional storm organization could occur Thursday afternoon along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary if sufficient instability develops. Isolated strong/gusty winds would be the main threat across these areas. Additional storms may form from late Thursday afternoon into the evening along the surface boundary across northern OK/southern KS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest cores, and occasional strong downdraft winds may also be noted. Farther west, at least a marginal severe threat should develop across parts of the High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak upslope low-level flow will transport low to mid 50s dewpoints westward along the I-25 corridor, with low to mid 60s further east. Strong heating will result in at least scattered storm development over higher terrain by early afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively modest, but effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg should support sporadic strong cells capable of both large hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening from parts of Indiana and Ohio into Pennsylvania and New York. ...Midwest into PA/NY... A northwesterly mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the Midwest on Thursday as an upper low remains centered over Hudson Bay and Ontario. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Quebec through the period. The strongest mid-level height falls/ascent should generally remain north of the international border. But, low-level convergence along a southeastward-moving front should be sufficient to initiate storms through the day across parts of the Midwest into PA/NY. Isolated convection may be ongoing Thursday across the lower Great Lakes along the cold front. Cloud debris from these early morning storms and modest mid-level lapse rates may temper destabilization somewhat ahead of the cold front, especially with northward extent in NY. Even so, strengthening mid-level winds atop a moist low-level airmass and at least modest diurnal heating will contribute to a sufficiently unstable and sheared environment to support organized storms. Relatively greater storm coverage will probably occur from central OH into western/central PA and western NY where low-level convergence along the front is strongest. Multicell clusters will probably be the dominant storm mode with around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, but some marginal supercell structures could also occur. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat with these storms as they spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, with hail being more isolated due to modest mid-level lapse rates. ...Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley... Aided by low-level warm air advection, numerous storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of KS into western MO. These storms should weaken through the mid morning as a southwesterly low-level jet slowly weakens. Potential redevelopment from eastern OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley remains unclear in the wake of the morning convection. Regardless, around 25-30 kt of mid-level west-northwesterly flow should remain across this region, and occasional storm organization could occur Thursday afternoon along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary if sufficient instability develops. Isolated strong/gusty winds would be the main threat across these areas. Additional storms may form from late Thursday afternoon into the evening along the surface boundary across northern OK/southern KS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest cores, and occasional strong downdraft winds may also be noted. Farther west, at least a marginal severe threat should develop across parts of the High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak upslope low-level flow will transport low to mid 50s dewpoints westward along the I-25 corridor, with low to mid 60s further east. Strong heating will result in at least scattered storm development over higher terrain by early afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively modest, but effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg should support sporadic strong cells capable of both large hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDWEST INTO PA/NY... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms capable of isolated large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible Thursday afternoon and evening from parts of Indiana and Ohio into Pennsylvania and New York. ...Midwest into PA/NY... A northwesterly mid/upper-level jet will overspread much of the Midwest on Thursday as an upper low remains centered over Hudson Bay and Ontario. A shortwave trough embedded within the upper trough is expected to move across the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Quebec through the period. The strongest mid-level height falls/ascent should generally remain north of the international border. But, low-level convergence along a southeastward-moving front should be sufficient to initiate storms through the day across parts of the Midwest into PA/NY. Isolated convection may be ongoing Thursday across the lower Great Lakes along the cold front. Cloud debris from these early morning storms and modest mid-level lapse rates may temper destabilization somewhat ahead of the cold front, especially with northward extent in NY. Even so, strengthening mid-level winds atop a moist low-level airmass and at least modest diurnal heating will contribute to a sufficiently unstable and sheared environment to support organized storms. Relatively greater storm coverage will probably occur from central OH into western/central PA and western NY where low-level convergence along the front is strongest. Multicell clusters will probably be the dominant storm mode with around 25-35 kt of effective bulk shear, but some marginal supercell structures could also occur. Damaging wind gusts appear to be the main threat with these storms as they spread eastward through the afternoon and early evening, with hail being more isolated due to modest mid-level lapse rates. ...Plains into the Lower/Mid MS Valley... Aided by low-level warm air advection, numerous storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of KS into western MO. These storms should weaken through the mid morning as a southwesterly low-level jet slowly weakens. Potential redevelopment from eastern OK into parts of the lower/mid MS Valley remains unclear in the wake of the morning convection. Regardless, around 25-30 kt of mid-level west-northwesterly flow should remain across this region, and occasional storm organization could occur Thursday afternoon along/south of a convectively reinforced boundary if sufficient instability develops. Isolated strong/gusty winds would be the main threat across these areas. Additional storms may form from late Thursday afternoon into the evening along the surface boundary across northern OK/southern KS as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. Marginally severe hail may occur with the strongest cores, and occasional strong downdraft winds may also be noted. Farther west, at least a marginal severe threat should develop across parts of the High Plains Thursday afternoon and evening. Weak upslope low-level flow will transport low to mid 50s dewpoints westward along the I-25 corridor, with low to mid 60s further east. Strong heating will result in at least scattered storm development over higher terrain by early afternoon. Mid-level flow will be relatively modest, but effective shear of 30-40 kt and MLCAPE up to 1500 J/kg should support sporadic strong cells capable of both large hail and perhaps locally damaging gusts during the afternoon and early evening. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 08/07/2019 Read more

MD 1665 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR EASTERN NEW YORK...VERMONT...AND NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 1665 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...Far eastern New York...Vermont...and New Hampshire Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071726Z - 071900Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to occasionally severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening. Damaging winds will be the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Morning cloud cover has slowed heating across eastern New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire so far today. However, cloud cover is becoming less numerous and thus surface heating has increased across the area in the last 1 to 2 hours. Visible satellite is starting to show surface based cumulus development suggesting that instability is increasing. Currently MLCAPE is around 1000 J/kg across this region, but additional surface heating/moistening will increase instability to 1500 to 2000 J/kg by later this afternoon. As instability increases, expect storm coverage to increase through the afternoon. Weak mid-level lapse rates (5.5-6 C/km), and effective shear around 25 knots will limit the overall severe weather threat, but given the instability and storm coverage expected, a few severe storms are possible. A watch may be needed if storms are more intense/organized than expected, but current thinking is that a watch will not be needed across this region. ..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF... LAT...LON 45197391 44897557 43977551 43187541 42887364 42707220 42707110 43667111 44857092 45497106 45197391 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 071716
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Aug 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

No watches are valid as of Wed Aug 7 17:04:01 UTC 2019.

MD 1664 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 1664 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1202 PM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...The mid-Atlantic into portions of the Northeast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071702Z - 071830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected this afternoon and evening with a threat for large hail and damaging winds. A watch is likely. DISCUSSION...Numerous storms have started to develop from the Mid-Atlantic into portions of the Northeast in an environment with temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Effective shear around 30 knots will support multicell clusters and lines capable of both large hail and damaging winds. Mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 to 7 C/km will support a greater threat for large hail in this region than farther south across Virginia and North Carolina. The greatest threat for both large hail and damaging winds will be from central Maryland northeast into far southeast New York where storm coverage, instability, and shear will be maximized ahead of an MCV currently out of far eastern West Virginia. A watch will be issued soon. ..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 41417612 42407495 42957379 43037164 42517087 42137012 41576996 41237099 41047222 40627298 39907399 39077453 38127498 37867533 37747602 37837684 37977744 38457775 38987784 39847771 41077665 41417612 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS VICINITY... Overall, the forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made. Consideration was given to including portions of northeast Nevada and adjacent southern Idaho in an ISODRYT area, but cloud cover and the weak shortwave trough moving out of the region introduces too much uncertainty with regard to storm development. Portions of the higher terrain in central Idaho may also see a few drier thunderstorms. Coverage appears too localized to introduce an area, however. Further details can be found in the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... Some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the Southwest and Great Basin is expected today, as the upper low off of the Pacific coast gradually shifts eastward and smaller-scale shortwave troughs move around the periphery of the ridge. Moisture will gradually increase into portions of the Great Basin, supporting a threat of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. ...Interior Northwest into northwest NV... At least isolated thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon into tonight across portions of the interior Northwest into northwest NV, with some potential for scattered coverage across portions of northeast OR and also across northwest NV. While some increase in moisture is forecast compared to Tuesday, substantial rainfall is generally not expected across the region, and thunderstorm activity will pose a risk of ignitions given the presence of receptive fuels. The greatest confidence in the development of scattered thunderstorms amidst dry fuels is over portions of northeast OR, where a scattered dry-thunderstorm delineation has been included. A separate area across northwest NV may require an upgrade in the Day 1 update if confidence increases in storm coverage across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS VICINITY... Overall, the forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made. Consideration was given to including portions of northeast Nevada and adjacent southern Idaho in an ISODRYT area, but cloud cover and the weak shortwave trough moving out of the region introduces too much uncertainty with regard to storm development. Portions of the higher terrain in central Idaho may also see a few drier thunderstorms. Coverage appears too localized to introduce an area, however. Further details can be found in the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... Some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the Southwest and Great Basin is expected today, as the upper low off of the Pacific coast gradually shifts eastward and smaller-scale shortwave troughs move around the periphery of the ridge. Moisture will gradually increase into portions of the Great Basin, supporting a threat of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. ...Interior Northwest into northwest NV... At least isolated thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon into tonight across portions of the interior Northwest into northwest NV, with some potential for scattered coverage across portions of northeast OR and also across northwest NV. While some increase in moisture is forecast compared to Tuesday, substantial rainfall is generally not expected across the region, and thunderstorm activity will pose a risk of ignitions given the presence of receptive fuels. The greatest confidence in the development of scattered thunderstorms amidst dry fuels is over portions of northeast OR, where a scattered dry-thunderstorm delineation has been included. A separate area across northwest NV may require an upgrade in the Day 1 update if confidence increases in storm coverage across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS VICINITY... Overall, the forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made. Consideration was given to including portions of northeast Nevada and adjacent southern Idaho in an ISODRYT area, but cloud cover and the weak shortwave trough moving out of the region introduces too much uncertainty with regard to storm development. Portions of the higher terrain in central Idaho may also see a few drier thunderstorms. Coverage appears too localized to introduce an area, however. Further details can be found in the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... Some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the Southwest and Great Basin is expected today, as the upper low off of the Pacific coast gradually shifts eastward and smaller-scale shortwave troughs move around the periphery of the ridge. Moisture will gradually increase into portions of the Great Basin, supporting a threat of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. ...Interior Northwest into northwest NV... At least isolated thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon into tonight across portions of the interior Northwest into northwest NV, with some potential for scattered coverage across portions of northeast OR and also across northwest NV. While some increase in moisture is forecast compared to Tuesday, substantial rainfall is generally not expected across the region, and thunderstorm activity will pose a risk of ignitions given the presence of receptive fuels. The greatest confidence in the development of scattered thunderstorms amidst dry fuels is over portions of northeast OR, where a scattered dry-thunderstorm delineation has been included. A separate area across northwest NV may require an upgrade in the Day 1 update if confidence increases in storm coverage across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR OREGON BLUE MOUNTAINS VICINITY... Overall, the forecast remains on track with only minor modifications made. Consideration was given to including portions of northeast Nevada and adjacent southern Idaho in an ISODRYT area, but cloud cover and the weak shortwave trough moving out of the region introduces too much uncertainty with regard to storm development. Portions of the higher terrain in central Idaho may also see a few drier thunderstorms. Coverage appears too localized to introduce an area, however. Further details can be found in the discussion below. ..Wendt.. 08/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019/ ...Synopsis... Some dampening of the persistent upper ridge over the Southwest and Great Basin is expected today, as the upper low off of the Pacific coast gradually shifts eastward and smaller-scale shortwave troughs move around the periphery of the ridge. Moisture will gradually increase into portions of the Great Basin, supporting a threat of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms. ...Interior Northwest into northwest NV... At least isolated thunderstorm coverage is expected this afternoon into tonight across portions of the interior Northwest into northwest NV, with some potential for scattered coverage across portions of northeast OR and also across northwest NV. While some increase in moisture is forecast compared to Tuesday, substantial rainfall is generally not expected across the region, and thunderstorm activity will pose a risk of ignitions given the presence of receptive fuels. The greatest confidence in the development of scattered thunderstorms amidst dry fuels is over portions of northeast OR, where a scattered dry-thunderstorm delineation has been included. A separate area across northwest NV may require an upgrade in the Day 1 update if confidence increases in storm coverage across this region. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1663 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 1663 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...Eastern North Carolina and eastern Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071650Z - 071815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Strong to severe storms are expected through the afternoon and evening. A watch is possible. DISCUSSION...Storms have started to form along a surface cold front in central North Carolina. The airmass ahead of these storms is already very unstable with surface dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and temperatures approaching 90 yielding MLCAPE around 2000 to 2500 J/kg. Mid-level flow around 40 knots will provide sufficient shear for storm organization. Expect one or more multicell clusters/line segments to move across eastern North Carolina and southeast Virginia through the afternoon and early evening. While mid-level lapse rates are quite weak (~ 6 C/km), expect storms to have some hail threat given the expected storm organization in a very unstable environment. Low-level flow will be a limiting factor to wind damage, but internal thermodynamic processes in the hot and unstable airmass will support downdrafts that will be capable of damaging winds. ..Bentley/Goss.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 35888010 36507916 37397858 38137770 38467684 38447634 38167605 37847591 36817599 36117557 35417547 35137588 34707676 34317760 34137797 34167840 34527986 34688033 35158039 35888010 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms, and associated/isolated risk for damaging gusts, may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Bentley.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms, and associated/isolated risk for damaging gusts, may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Bentley.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms, and associated/isolated risk for damaging gusts, may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Bentley.. 08/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS SOUTHEAST TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OVER PORTIONS OF WISCONSIN/UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWARD TO NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Strong/locally severe thunderstorms, capable of producing wind damage and hail, will be possible across parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and central Plains today. Additional storms, and associated/isolated risk for damaging gusts, may occur from parts of the Carolinas northward into the Northeast. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging is forecast to remain across much of the western and south-central U.S. this period, upstream of a low/trough residing over the eastern Pacific/off the West Coast. Meanwhile, a second upper trough will shift gradually across the Appalachians/eastern U.S. today and tonight. At the surface, a trough to the lee of the Appalachians will focus diurnal showers and storms today, while farther west, a cold front will shift southeastward across the Upper Great Lakes, and south across the central Plains/mid Missouri Valley region through tonight. ...Western New England/eastern New York to the Carolinas... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to continue developing into this afternoon, largely east of the Appalachian crest, and particularly near/east of a surface trough analyzed from eastern New York south to central North Carolina. Moderate, deep-layer westerly/southwesterly flow aloft resides across the area, which -- given the very moist/destabilizing airmass near and east of the aforementioned surface trough -- will contribute to weakly organized storms, and some potential for upscale growth into bands of convection. Locally gusty/potentially damaging winds will be the primary risk with the strongest storms through the afternoon, though hail will also be possible. Risk should diminish into the evening hours with the onset of diurnal cooling. ...Upper Great Lakes/upper Mississippi Valley area... Afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop near/ahead of a southeastward-moving cold front currently residing over western Lake Michigan and adjacent northwestern Wisconsin/southeast Minnesota. Moderately strong/unidirectional west-northwesterly flow above the boundary layer suggests that as the airmass destabilizes this afternoon, rather fast-moving, organized storms/storm clusters should evolve, particularly across the SLGT risk area. Gusty/locally damaging winds will be possible with the strongest storms, along with some risk for hail. Risk will gradually diminish after dark. ...Central Plains/Ozarks southeast to western Tennessee/northern Mississippi... A somewhat disorganized cluster of thunderstorms continues moving southeastward across eastern Kansas and southern Missouri at this time, which has been slightly elevated above the nocturnally stable boundary layer. However, some intensification of storms is indicated over south-central Missouri, as filtered sunshine through cirrus anvil blowoff permits gradual heating of the moist boundary layer. Clearer skies, and even higher surface dewpoints downstream into Arkansas and the mid Mississippi Valley area has already resulted in strong destabilization, with 2500 to 3500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE indicated. As the gradually strengthening storms continue shifting southeastward into the very unstable/favorable thermodynamic environment, continued organization of storms is expected -- aided by moderate northwesterly flow aloft. As such, risk for damaging winds is apparent, along with some hail risk. Therefore, the SLGT risk is being expanded southeastward across the Ozarks and into portions of western Tennessee/northern Mississippi to capture the evolving potential. Later this afternoon, and into the evening, storms developing over the central High Plains area should increase substantially in coverage across parts of southern Nebraska and into Kansas, as a low-level jet develops, and warm advection increases near a residual surface/outflow boundary. Large hail, and locally damaging winds, will be possible as the convection increases/expands through the evening and continues into the overnight hours. ..Goss/Bentley.. 08/07/2019 Read more

MD 1662 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHERN MO...NORTHEAST AR...WESTERN TN...NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1662 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed Aug 07 2019 Areas affected...southern MO...northeast AR...western TN...northern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 071635Z - 071830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Renewed storm development along the gust front from an ongoing MCS is possible. A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered. DISCUSSION...Radar imagery shows an MCS moving southeast across the Ozarks with a well-defined gust front trailing westward into northeast OK and arcing northwestward into south-central KS. An MCV is now being identified across west-central MO and this feature will continue to move to the southeast across the Ozarks early this afternoon. Temperatures are warming through the upper 80s over northeast AR into northern MS with surface dewpoints in the middle to upper 70s. The 12z Little Rock raob showed 2300 J/kg MLCAPE with around 60kt north-northwesterly flow around 250mb. The additional heating has resulted in around 3400 J/kg MLCAPE at Little Rock according to the latest RAP forecast sounding. The latest expectation is for the ongoing MCS to continue southeast into northeast AR while intensifying over the next few hours. The potential for damaging gusts will correspondingly increase with the storm intensification. It is uncertain whether the swath for damaging gust potential is greatest with the storms moving southeast from Rolla, MO or if additional development further southwest occurs. Regardless, convective trends will be monitored in the short term for a possible severe thunderstorm watch issuance. ..Smith.. 08/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 37409168 35998908 34788860 34609002 36209314 37409168 Read more

The Five Fire started at 12:52 PM on August 3rd. The fire started on the North Bound side of Interstate 5 - two miles north of Templin Highway. As of 3:32 PM, it is 150 acres with 20% containment. The cause of the fire is under investigation. At this time, there are no evacuations or structures threatened. Angeles National Forest and Los Angeles County Fire have responded to the incident. Angeles has committed 250 firefighters to the incident. California Highway Patrol (CHP) has reopened all lanes of the Northbound I-5. At 1 PM (8/5), the #4 lane will be closed briefly so firefighters may retrieve fire hose from the incident. Please contact CHP for additional road closure information.

WW 0558 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW EMP TO 30 WSW TOP TO 20 S TOP. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661 ..SMITH..08/07/19 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...GID...OAX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 558 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC003-017-031-111-139-071420- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON CHASE COFFEY LYON OSAGE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 558 SEVERE TSTM KS NE 070905Z - 071600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 558 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 405 AM CDT Wed Aug 7 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Kansas Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Wednesday morning from 405 AM until 1100 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 80 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...An area of strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to move southeastward from southeastern Nebraska into eastern Kansas for several more hours. The storms will move along a northwest to southeast gradient of instability. Relatively fast storm movement along with moderate deep-layer shear will be adequate for a damaging-wind threat through mid to late morning. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles either side of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Concordia KS to 60 miles north of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 32035. ...Broyles Read more