Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 23:57:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 21:27:02 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292343
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jun 29 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Flossie, located in the eastern Pacific basin a couple of
hundred miles south-southwest of Acapulco, Mexico.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles offshore of
southwestern Mexico late this week. Some gradual development of this
system is possible thereafter while it moves generally
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under WMO
header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Flossie are issued under
WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 23:42:45 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Jun 2025 21:27:02 GMT

Issued at 600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 292342 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Flossie Intermediate Advisory Number 3A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062025 600 PM CST Sun Jun 29 2025 ...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.7N 100.7W ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM SE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Southwest coast of Mexico from Zihuatanejo to Cabo Corrientes A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Flossie. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Flossie was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 100.7 West. Flossie is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A west-northwest to northwestward motion should continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the system is expected to become a hurricane late Monday or Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Flossie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Flossie is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Oaxaca, Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through early this week. This rainfall may lead to areas of life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Flossie, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast within the watch area late Monday and Tuesday. SURF: Swells generated by Flossie will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...FLOSSIE EXPECTED TO BRING AREAS OF HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM CST Sun Jun 29 the center of Flossie was located near 13.7, -100.7 with movement WNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

MD 1516 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479... FOR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
Mesoscale Discussion 1516 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0609 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Central High Plains Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479... Valid 292309Z - 300115Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479 continues. SUMMARY...Scattered strong-severe thunderstorms will continue this evening. Hail and wind remain the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Mid-level flow has increased a bit within the base of the northern Plains upper trough. Latest data suggests 6km flow is around 30-35kt across northern portions of ww479, but noticeably weaker into northern CO. Over the next several hours, this flow should gradually veer into the northwest, and ongoing convection is expected to more readily advance downstream across the central High Plains, well north of a front that is draped across northwestern KS into northeast CO. While any semblance of a LLJ will remain confined to western KS, this activity appears to be aided in part by the upper trough. Latest radar data exhibits at least 4-5 longer-lived updrafts from southwestern SD into extreme northern CO. Most of these are generating severe hail. With time this activity should advance downstream into north central NE where a new severe thunderstorm watch may be warranted later this evening. ..Darrow.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 43960495 43950255 39110273 39120498 43960495 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 1515 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... FOR SOUTHERN WISCONSIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1515 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0544 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Southern Wisconsin Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477... Valid 292244Z - 300015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477 continues. SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development will remain possible along and south of an aggregate outflow boundary, but the threat for wind damage will become more marginal with time. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are ongoing along an aggregate outflow boundary that is moving slowly southward into southern WI. Vertical shear is quite weak and little storm organization/persistence is expected, but the stronger storms could still produce isolated wind damage given precipitation loading and steep low-level lapse rates along and south of the outflow. The limited severe threat appears to be covered by the current watch configuration, and no additional watches/extensions appear needed this evening. ..Thompson.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX... LAT...LON 42768932 42679043 42899109 43259105 43468968 43838870 44228804 44108781 43808802 43158875 42768932 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

MD 1514 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478... FOR SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...SOUTHEAST KANSAS...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 1514 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0528 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Areas affected...Southwest Missouri...southeast Kansas...northwest Arkansas and northeast Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478... Valid 292228Z - 300000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 478 continues. SUMMARY...A thunderstorm cluster and associated cold pool will spread southward toward northwest Arkansas, and additional storm development is possible along the trailing outflow boundary into southeast Kansas. DISCUSSION...A thunderstorm cluster produced an outflow gust of 55 kt at Springfield MO in the past 30 minutes, and local radar radar suggest a continuation of the severe-wind threat to the southeast of Springfield. The storms will likely be strongest near and just northeast of the merger of two cold pools across Christian/Taney County, and the larger-scale cold pool will continue southward into northwest AR by 2230-23z. Strong buoyancy is present south of the ongoing storms where vertical shear is weak, so the cluster will tend toward more outflow dominance over time. In the interim, a few severe gusts will be possible and could spread a little south of the watch into AR, though the need for a downstream watch is uncertain. Farther west, some convection is attempting to deepen along the northwest edge of the cold pool, coincident with a small/remnant MCV from near and just north of Wichita KS. Surface temperatures in the low 90s with dewpoints near or above 70 F are supporting MLCAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg with minimal convective inhibition. Isolated severe storm development may occur in the next 1-2 hours as the MCV interacts with the outflow boundary, in an environment with marginally sufficient vertical shear for semi-organized clusters and/or some marginal supercell structure. The watch may need to be extended in area by a tier of counties to the west if the KS convection shows signs of intensification. ..Thompson.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 36659346 37099258 36889213 36439215 36079259 35999346 35989446 36249554 36629634 37239684 37649703 37899704 37969655 37949630 37469596 36879502 36679432 36659346 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-039-069-073-075-087-095-115-121-123- 292340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER ELBERT LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-292340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-292340- Read more

WW 0479 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 479 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...BOU...CYS...LBF...UNR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 479 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC001-005-013-014-031-039-069-073-075-087-095-115-121-123- 292340- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS ARAPAHOE BOULDER BROOMFIELD DENVER ELBERT LARIMER LINCOLN LOGAN MORGAN PHILLIPS SEDGWICK WASHINGTON WELD NEC007-013-033-045-049-069-105-123-157-161-165-292340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANNER BOX BUTTE CHEYENNE DAWES DEUEL GARDEN KIMBALL MORRILL SCOTTS BLUFF SHERIDAN SIOUX SDC007-033-047-071-081-093-102-103-292340- Read more

WW 479 SEVERE TSTM CO NE SD WY 291945Z - 300300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 145 PM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Colorado Western Nebraska Southwest South Dakota Eastern Wyoming * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 145 PM until 900 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms will develop from eastern Wyoming into central Colorado this afternoon. These storms will spread eastward into western South Dakota/Nebraska through the evening. Damaging winds and large hail will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 85 miles north northwest of Chadron NE to 15 miles southwest of Limon CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 477...WW 478... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 28030. ...Hart Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jun 29 22:15:08 UTC 2025.

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CNU TO 15 NNW JLN TO 20 ENE SGF. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-292340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-043-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-292340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN GREENE JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY OKC035-105-115-292340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0478 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CNU TO 15 NNW JLN TO 20 ENE SGF. ..THOMPSON..06/29/25 ATTN...WFO...ICT...SGF...TSA... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 478 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC019-021-037-049-099-125-133-205-207-292340- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHAUTAUQUA CHEROKEE CRAWFORD ELK LABETTE MONTGOMERY NEOSHO WILSON WOODSON MOC009-043-077-097-109-119-145-209-213-292340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CHRISTIAN GREENE JASPER LAWRENCE MCDONALD NEWTON STONE TANEY OKC035-105-115-292340- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 478 SEVERE TSTM KS MO OK 291920Z - 300200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Kansas Southwest Missouri Northeast Oklahoma * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms has developed across east-central Kansas and western Missouri. These storms will track southeastward into a very warm/humid, and unstable air mass through the afternoon. Locally damaging wind gusts will be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 35 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Chanute KS to 15 miles northeast of Springfield MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 477... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Hart Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z ...Days 3-4/Tuesday-Wednesday... An increasing fire weather threat is expected across portions of the western U.S. as a mid-level low moves into California. Mid-level moisture and instability north of the low will support isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across the northern California into southern Oregon, primarily along and east of the Cascades. A mix of wet/dry thunderstorms will support new ignitions where over available dry fuels. 40-50 knot southerly mid-level flow over a dry/well-mixed boundary layer will support stronger south winds across southern Nevada Day 3/Tuesday. An upper-level short wave and increasing surface pressure gradients will bring enhanced west winds into the Columbia Basin Day 4/Wednesday. The upper-level trough, initial influx of deeper monsoon moisture into the Intermountain West and daytime instability will support isolated dry thunderstorms across the central Utah Mountains Day 3/Tuesday, with expanding thunderstorm coverage heading into Day 4/Wednesday to include western Wyoming/far southeastern Idaho as well as east-central Nevada. ...Days 5-8/Thursday-Sunday... Another mid-level short wave and associated stronger mid-level flow entering the western U.S. late in the week will increase fire weather concerns across the Great Basin on Day 6/Friday. Long term ensemble guidance does indicate at least a weak upper-level troughing pattern across the western U.S. but uncertainty remains in specific fire weather impacts in the long term. ..Williams.. 06/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more