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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. Another day of dry conditions is expected across the southern High Plains as a surface low tracks across the OH Valley tomorrow (Friday). Sustained westerly surface winds should remain generally under 15 mph, and when also considering the marginal receptiveness of finer fuels, fire weather highlights have been withheld. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Fire officials urge the public to exercise extreme caution with any open burning or controlled burns. The Bremer County Sheriff’s Office and Bremer County Emergency Management Agency reported a total of seven controlled burns getting out of control on Wednesday, January 29, with six of the blazes occurring within about an hour. Firefighters with Marble Rock Fire Department and the Rockford Fire Department agreed that open burning was unwise. The Cresco Fire Department also responded to at least five grass fires that stemmed from controlled burns. KCHA 95.9 FM (Charles City, Iowa), Jan 30, 2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1107 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM FAR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA INTO FAR SOUTHWEST GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central/eastern Gulf Coast... An upper low/trough from the Mid-MS Valley to the southern Plains will shift east to the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the Southeast ahead of the trough. Meanwhile, a cold front will develop east/southeast across the region through early Saturday. A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Friday morning from the TN Valley toward far southeast LA. While vertical shear will be quite favorable for organized convection, poor lapse rates and a relatively cool/capped boundary-layer will limit destabilization. Where deeper boundary-layer moisture is evident closer to the coast, some potential for an isolated strong storm or two may evolve during the late morning into the afternoon from near the mouth of the MS to far southwest GA. Gusty winds will be the main hazard with any stronger storm that can develop. However, very near the coast, if any weak surface-based instability can develop, favorable low-level shear could result in a tornado. Overall, severe potential appears to be quite limited by poor thermodynamics. ...TN/OH Valley vicinity... Isolated shallow convection may develop within the colder core of the upper low during the afternoon/early evening. Cooling midlevel temperatures will support steepening midlevel lapse rates, contributing to weak MUCAPE. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat dry midlevels, though some moistening may occur and low-topped convection could produce a few lightning strikes or even small, sub-severe hail for a few hours. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more