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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS in the wake of the trough departing the East Coast D2/Saturday. Increasing flow aloft will support strengthening winds and a deepening low over parts of the Plains. This could allow for some localized fire-weather risk. ...Southern Plains... As flow aloft, and several embedded shortwave troughs, pass over the central Rockies Saturday, a lee low should intensify south/southwesterly flow over parts of the southern High Plains. Mild temperatures and the downslope trajectories should support some overlap of winds greater than 15 mph and RH below 20%. While intermittent and localized elevated conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire-weather conditions are unlikely over much of the CONUS today and tonight. Broad troughing over the eastern third of the US will support the potential for widespread wetting rainfall. While to the west, low-amplitude ridging is expected over the Rockies and Plains. Cooler temperatures and weak winds are expected beneath the ridge. With little overlap of strong winds, low humidity and receptive fuels, fire-weather potential is limited. ..Lyons.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... As an upper short-wave trough moves off the East Coast early in the period, flow aloft will trend quasi-zonal across the U.S. through Sunday morning. Emanating from a low over the southwestern Canada coast, several short-wave features are expected to eject eastward across the northern U.S. within the evolving/fast westerly flow regime. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to shift eastward across southern Canada, as the aforementioned short-wave energy shifts eastward. A trailing cold front associated with this low will shift southeastward across the northern Intermountain region through the period. Elsewhere, cold frontolysis will occur over the Florida Peninsula, as trailing portion of the cold front crossing the western Atlantic sags southward with time. With largely cool/stable air across most of the country, little thunder potential is evident. A flash or two may occur across parts of the northwestern U.S., within an area of showers across this region. A flash or two may occur offshore from Florida, but lightning is not expected inland. Overall, any lightning over the U.S. should remain well below 10% coverage thresholds, and thus no thunder areas will be included for this forecast. ..Goss.. 01/31/2025 Read more

Southern Nevada has not received measurable rain in the past 200 days and missed the monsoonal rains in 2024. To provide water for wildlife, the Nevada Department of Wildlife and partners hauled 37,000 gallons of water to 10 existing guzzling stations in the mountains of Southern Nevada in late December. Resources have become scarce and were reaching emergency levels for wildlife. NDOW anticipated having to haul water to 20 herds in February, but the animals still do not have forage to eat. Hay cannot be brought in for the bighorn sheep because they cannot digest hay. Something must be done or hundreds of animals will die, according to an NDOW sheep biologist. Nevada Current (Carson City, Nev.), Jan 27, 2025

MD 0060 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF MS/LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0060 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1006 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...central/southern portions of MS/LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 310406Z - 310600Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally strong gusts and a brief tornado should be the main threats into the early morning hours as broken thunderstorm clusters spread quickly east-northeast. DISCUSSION...The onset of mid-level height falls has aided in gradually deepening convection from southwest LA into southwest MS along a weak cold front. Despite strong low-level shear ahead of the front, instability remains quite limited with poor lapse rates evident in 00Z observed soundings. This is yielding meager buoyancy. Still, given the presence of pronounced mid/upper-level speed shear, in conjunction with the strengthening large-scale ascent, modestly organized clusters should rapidly spread east-northeast through about 08-09Z. Greater organizational structures may be subdued by orientation of the clusters paralleling the deep-layer shear vector. Locally strong gusts may occur, along with potential of a brief embedded tornado. ..Grams/Mosier.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 31849130 32889045 33218953 33058909 32328903 31029005 30269123 30089182 30099232 30209261 30639252 31849130 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more