Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be limited across the country on Friday. Widespread rain chances are expected to overspread the mid-MS and OH River Valleys on Friday as the upper trough currently moving into the southern Plains migrates east/northeast. A broad, but weak, surface ridge building across the Four Corners and southern High Plains will limit wind speeds within the driest air mass over the country. Consequently, the potential for fire weather concerns appears limited. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated this afternoon across parts of southern Texas. Elsewhere across the country, a combination of rain/snow chances and/or unreceptive fuels will limit additional concerns. ...Big Bend region of South Texas... 06 UTC surface observations show a dry air mass (characterized by dewpoints in the low teens) across eastern NM into far West TX. This air mass will spread east across western and southern TX through the afternoon amid strengthening westerly winds. While the strongest surface cyclogenesis will remain displaced to the north across KS/MO, secondary low development across the OK/TX Panhandles region, juxtaposed with a building surface ridge across northern Mexico, should result in sustained 20-25 mph winds across much of western and southern TX. Latest guidance suggests the best overlap of sub-20% RH and 20 mph winds resides across the Big Bend region of south TX. Recent fuel analyses continue to show fuels are not overly dry, and ongoing showers/thunderstorms will limit the east/northeastern extent of any fire concerns. However, several hours of dry/windy conditions may allow sufficient drying of 1- and 10-hour fuels to support at least low-end fire weather concerns, especially for areas that do not see early-morning rainfall. ..Moore.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Lower Mississippi Valley... Pronounced upper low over northern NM is forecast to eject into the central Plains early in the period as strong 500mb flow translates through the base of the trough into northwest TX/western OK. During the latter half of the period this mid-level speed max will intensify as it advances into the Ozarks, where speeds may approach 120kt. Latest model guidance suggests intense 12hr, mid-level height falls (150-180m) will spread across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley, with lesser forcing expected at lower latitudes. In response to this feature, a seasonally weak surface low should advance from northeast TX into southwest MO by late afternoon. It appears the trailing cold front will prove influential in thunderstorm development, initially across central/east TX, at daybreak, then along the boundary as it surges east through the period. Additionally, strong low-level warm advection will contribute to elevated convection, but this activity will not evolve within a particularly unstable environment due to modest mid-level lapse rates. Late this evening, a corridor of elevated convection has developed from the Hill Country of south-central TX into northwest AR. This corridor should advance east as the LLJ shifts downstream, in response to the progressive upper trough. Forecast soundings suggest near-surface based convection may evolve along the front early across central TX where surface dew points are rising through the mid 60s. This type of air mass will return to the lower MS Valley during the day but boundary-layer heating will prove marginal, and buoyancy is expected to remain minimal across the warm sector. Even so, some supercell risk is anticipated as forecast profiles exhibit strong shear with 0-3 SRH values in excess of 400 m2/s2. If sustained updrafts can materialize in this environment there is some risk for damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. However, poor lapse rates do not look especially favorable for appreciable destabilization. ..Darrow/Moore.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low is currently located along the northern AZ/NM border, ejecting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough over northern Mexico late tonight into far west TX. As a result, LLJ should strengthen after 06z, along the I35 corridor into north-central TX. Substantial cloud cover and cool boundary-layer temperatures have restricted surface-based buoyancy; however, 00z sounding from FWD does exhibit around 800 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Scattered convection is expected to increase within the warm advection corridor ahead of the front later this evening. The majority of convection should remain elevated, but after 09z LCLs will lower as modified Gulf air mass continues to advance north. Some risk for near-surface based supercells are possible as this occurs. Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low is currently located along the northern AZ/NM border, ejecting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough over northern Mexico late tonight into far west TX. As a result, LLJ should strengthen after 06z, along the I35 corridor into north-central TX. Substantial cloud cover and cool boundary-layer temperatures have restricted surface-based buoyancy; however, 00z sounding from FWD does exhibit around 800 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Scattered convection is expected to increase within the warm advection corridor ahead of the front later this evening. The majority of convection should remain elevated, but after 09z LCLs will lower as modified Gulf air mass continues to advance north. Some risk for near-surface based supercells are possible as this occurs. Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low is currently located along the northern AZ/NM border, ejecting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough over northern Mexico late tonight into far west TX. As a result, LLJ should strengthen after 06z, along the I35 corridor into north-central TX. Substantial cloud cover and cool boundary-layer temperatures have restricted surface-based buoyancy; however, 00z sounding from FWD does exhibit around 800 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Scattered convection is expected to increase within the warm advection corridor ahead of the front later this evening. The majority of convection should remain elevated, but after 09z LCLs will lower as modified Gulf air mass continues to advance north. Some risk for near-surface based supercells are possible as this occurs. Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2025 Read more