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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS INTO EXTREME SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...01z Update... Upper low is currently located along the northern AZ/NM border, ejecting northeast in line with earlier model guidance. Strongest mid-level flow will translate through the base of the trough over northern Mexico late tonight into far west TX. As a result, LLJ should strengthen after 06z, along the I35 corridor into north-central TX. Substantial cloud cover and cool boundary-layer temperatures have restricted surface-based buoyancy; however, 00z sounding from FWD does exhibit around 800 J/kg MUCAPE if lifting a parcel near 850mb. Scattered convection is expected to increase within the warm advection corridor ahead of the front later this evening. The majority of convection should remain elevated, but after 09z LCLs will lower as modified Gulf air mass continues to advance north. Some risk for near-surface based supercells are possible as this occurs. Earlier thoughts regarding severe continue. ..Darrow.. 01/30/2025 Read more

A mandatory water conservation notice that took effect on November 18 remained for those served by the Roaring Creek Water Plant, including the towns of Ralpho Township, Zerbe Township, Coal Township and Mount Carmel Township in Northumberland County; Conyngham Township and Centralia Borough in Columbia County; and Butler Township, Gordon Borough and Girardville Borough in Schuylkill County. The News-Item (Shamokin, Pa.), Jan 28, 2025

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 29 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 29 22:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. Zonal flow from a departing low pressure system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. Beyond the weekend, ridging will build in across the western and central US, bringing mostly light winds across the southwest and southern Plains, where the driest fuels are in place. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. Zonal flow from a departing low pressure system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. Beyond the weekend, ridging will build in across the western and central US, bringing mostly light winds across the southwest and southern Plains, where the driest fuels are in place. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. Zonal flow from a departing low pressure system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. Beyond the weekend, ridging will build in across the western and central US, bringing mostly light winds across the southwest and southern Plains, where the driest fuels are in place. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. Zonal flow from a departing low pressure system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. Beyond the weekend, ridging will build in across the western and central US, bringing mostly light winds across the southwest and southern Plains, where the driest fuels are in place. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 061200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the early part of the extended forecast. Zonal flow from a departing low pressure system will favor periods of enhanced westerly flow overspreading the southern Rockies through the weekend, with lee troughing redeveloping D4/Saturday and D5/Sunday. This will bring potential warm/dry downslope flow across portions of western Texas into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Some portion of this region will have seen recent rainfall. However, Elevated to locally Critical fire-weather concerns will be possible across far western Texas where less precipitation was received. For now, confidence is low in highlighting any specific areas. Beyond the weekend, ridging will build in across the western and central US, bringing mostly light winds across the southwest and southern Plains, where the driest fuels are in place. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and no appreciable changes were needed with this update. Widespread cloud coverage associated with a plume of low-level warm advection is inhibiting daytime heating/destabilization across the warm sector. However, continued moisture return and eventual steepening of midlevel lapse rates should result in modest near-surface-based instability into the overnight hours. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more