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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms with isolated severe gusts will be possible this afternoon across parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Central Gulf Coast... A mid-level trough will move across the Ozarks and eastern parts of the southern Plains today, as a 90 to 110 mid-level jet translates east-northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. At the surface, a trough will move through the central Gulf Coast states. Surface dewpoints ahead of the trough will be in the 60s F from the Florida Panhandle northeastward into southeast Mississippi and southwest Alabama. Due to extensive cloud cover, instability will remain weak across the moist sector, with MLCAPE likely peaking below 500 J/kg in most areas. In spite of this, scattered thunderstorms appear likely to develop ahead of the trough, aided by large-scale ascent within the right entrance region of the mid-level jet. This feature will contribute lift and strong deep-layer shear that may be sufficient for marginally severe storms this afternoon. Isolated rotating storms will be possible, the stronger of which could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. The severe threat is expected to progress eastward across the central Gulf coast during the afternoon, affecting parts of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Lyons.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 310100Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts will be possible this evening into tonight across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley. ...Lower Mississippi Valley... In the mid-levels, the latest water vapor imagery shows a low over the southern High Plains with southwest flow located over much of the south-central U.S. A surface trough is analyzed from the Ozarks southward into the Sabine River Valley. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are in the 60s F but surface heating has remained limited today with temperatures only reaching the lower 70s F. This is due to widespread cloud cover and shower activity spread out across much of the moist sector. Within this weakly unstable airmass, a strong shear environment is present. RAP forecast soundings from southeast Louisiana into south-central Mississippi have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity between 350 and 450 m2/s2. The shear should enable some of the cells to rotate. Any of these cells could produce isolated severe gusts. A brief tornado could also occur. Due to the weak buoyancy, the severe threat is expected to remain marginal. The duration of the threat could persist into the late evening and early overnight period. ..Broyles.. 01/31/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 30 23:46:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 30 23:46:02 UTC 2025.

A fire in McDowell County blackened 250 acres and forced the evacuation of a community. WSOC-TV ABC 9 Charlotte (N.C.), Jan 30, 2025

MD 0059 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0059 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0317 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Areas affected...parts of northern Louisiana and southern Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 302117Z - 302345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A gradual increase in thunderstorms is expected through this evening. Isolated severe storms capable of gusty winds or a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to push across eastern TX, and now into southwest AR and northwest LA. Ahead of this front, persistent southerly winds have allowed for marginal destabilization via advection with MUCAPE over 500 J/kg as far north as southeast AR. Heating remains limited due to extensive pre-frontal clouds, and scattered showers over the warm sector. Although low to midlevel lapse rates are not particularly steep, lightning activity has increased over the last hour, suggesting the deepening moist boundary layer has breached the stable/capping layer. As such, increasing storm coverage is anticipated along and ahead of the cold front through this evening. Shear profiles favor supercells and tornado potential, with effective SRH now over 300 m2/s2, and, deep-layer shear vectors oriented with substantial component across the cold front. With time, a few of the storms could attain supercell characteristics, with a conditional risk of a brief tornado and/or damaging gusts. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several hours. ..Jewell/Hart.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV... LAT...LON 34719118 34539097 34109085 33569100 32609153 32019221 31729311 31979324 32259324 33309278 34289244 34759176 34719118 Read more

The eastern flank of the Wade’s Gap wildfire was roughly 70% contained, while the western flank was fully contained. The blaze has burned from 550 to 600 acres. One home was destroyed by the fire. The mandatory evacuation order has been lifted. Franklin County was mostly abnormally dry with a strip of moderate drought in the southeastern corner of the county. WDBJ7 (Roanoke, Va.), Jan 30, 2025

Washington County commissioners have asked residents to conserve water and to fast and pray for rain to ease the severe drought. Since the start of the water year on Oct. 1, Washington County has received .34 inches of rain, making this the third driest water year on record thus far. The Salt Lake Tribune (Utah), Jan 29, 2025

Dubuque, Winneshiek and Hardin counties have enacted burn bans due to the uptick in grass, brush and field fires over the past two weeks. The Independence Fire Department has experienced a historic number of field fires, having had eight this year, compared to none at this time last year. Across the county, they have dealt with more than a dozen field fires. KCRG (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), Jan 30, 2025

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more