Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Generally zonal mid-level flow will become established over the CONUS until early next week, when a mid-level trough is poised to amplify over the western half of the U.S. Through the extended period, surface lee troughing will prevail across the Plains states, with multiple days of dry downslope flow likely across the southern High Plains. Medium range guidance consensus shows at least Elevated overlapping surface winds and RH across eastern New Mexico into western Texas nearly every day, from Saturday to next Wednesday. While intermittent Critical conditions may occur, fuel receptiveness is currently too marginal to support robust and widespread wildfire growth potential. Nonetheless, multiple successive days of prolonged dry and windy conditions should encourage the curing of fine (i.e. 1- to 10-h) fuels, so Critical probabilities or at least Elevated highlights (by the Days 1-2 time frame) may be needed by early next week. ..Squitieri.. 01/30/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 302000Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF LOUISIANA...SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible today into tonight from eastern portions of Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...20Z Update... The only change with this update was a minor northward expansion of the Slight risk into southeast Arkansas. Here, the warm front has progressed northward, with surface temperatures now in the lower 70s amid increasing boundary-layer moisture. This suggests surface-based storms will be possible amid the high helicity air already in place -- with an associated risk of a tornado and/or damaging gusts. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 01/30/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1008 AM CST Thu Jan 30 2025/ ...LA/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper low over southeast CO, with a band of strong southwesterly flow aloft extending across central TX. A cold front is sweeping eastward across east TX into a moist but only marginally unstable air mass across the ArkLaTex region. The result is likely to be a continued risk of showers and thunderstorms along/behind the front. Forecast soundings throughout the pre-frontal region show strong low-level and deep-layer shear, providing a favorable conditional environment for organized convection and updraft rotation. The primary concern is the weak forcing in the warm sector, and the weak thermodynamic profiles. These factors suggest storms along the immediate front may become strong/severe, but it is uncertain how long the storms can remain surface-based before being undercut by the front. Nevertheless, the strongest cells could produce damaging wind gusts or a tornado or two through the afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Thu Jan 30 2025 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential across the United States appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude, mostly zonal upper flow regime will emerge across the CONUS on Saturday. A baroclinic zone will weaken, while a surface front dissipates over the western Atlantic and FL Peninsula. A few showers are possible over the FL Peninsula, especially near the east coast as this occurs, but thunderstorm activity should be limited due to poor thermodynamics, and weakening ascent and vertical shear. Moist, onshore flow will stream over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies as a surface cold front develops east across the region. Showers/low-topped convection with a couple of lightning flashes may occur near coastal WA/OR into the northern Rockies given cold midlevel temperatures and steep lapse rates. However, coverage is expected to be less than 10 percent. ..Leitman.. 01/30/2025 Read more