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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the current D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited across the country on Thursday, though some concerns may emerge across the Big Bend region of southern Texas depending on fuel trends over the next 48 hours. The upper low currently over the Southwest is expected to eject into the southern Plains through late Thursday. Surface cyclogenesis is expected to become more pronounced Thursday afternoon across the central Plains, resulting in strengthening pressure gradient winds across much of TX. Westerly winds between 15-25 mph will be common, and dry air advection, coupled with deep boundary-layer mixing, will promote RH reductions down to 15-20% across the greater Big Bend region. Recent ensemble guidance shows reasonably high probabilities for sustained elevated fire weather conditions across this region with low to moderate probabilities (30-50%) for critical conditions. While confidence in reasonably high for at least elevated fire weather conditions, fuels across this region are not overly receptive with ERCs generally below the 80th percentile and 10-hour fuel moisture values above the 50th percentile. Fire weather highlights may be needed in future forecast updated if fine fuels can sufficiently dry by Thursday afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... A positively tilted upper trough will move from the MS Valley vicinity to just offshore the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of this system will overspread much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, southerly low-level winds ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will spread low/mid 60s F dewpoints northward across southern AL/GA and parts of FL, with 50s dewpoints extending northeast into the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing just ahead of the cold front Friday morning from the Ohio/TN Valley to the central Gulf coast. A narrow corridor of higher surface dewpoints and modest elevated instability will be in place downstream from this early activity across southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Isolated strong thunderstorms, mainly capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts, will be possible within this zone of overlapping strong vertical shear and weak elevated instability during the afternoon. Overall severe potential should remain limited due to poor low-level lapse rates/thermodynamics, and will diminish quickly with north and east extent. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... A positively tilted upper trough will move from the MS Valley vicinity to just offshore the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of this system will overspread much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, southerly low-level winds ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will spread low/mid 60s F dewpoints northward across southern AL/GA and parts of FL, with 50s dewpoints extending northeast into the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing just ahead of the cold front Friday morning from the Ohio/TN Valley to the central Gulf coast. A narrow corridor of higher surface dewpoints and modest elevated instability will be in place downstream from this early activity across southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Isolated strong thunderstorms, mainly capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts, will be possible within this zone of overlapping strong vertical shear and weak elevated instability during the afternoon. Overall severe potential should remain limited due to poor low-level lapse rates/thermodynamics, and will diminish quickly with north and east extent. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... A positively tilted upper trough will move from the MS Valley vicinity to just offshore the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of this system will overspread much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, southerly low-level winds ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will spread low/mid 60s F dewpoints northward across southern AL/GA and parts of FL, with 50s dewpoints extending northeast into the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing just ahead of the cold front Friday morning from the Ohio/TN Valley to the central Gulf coast. A narrow corridor of higher surface dewpoints and modest elevated instability will be in place downstream from this early activity across southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Isolated strong thunderstorms, mainly capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts, will be possible within this zone of overlapping strong vertical shear and weak elevated instability during the afternoon. Overall severe potential should remain limited due to poor low-level lapse rates/thermodynamics, and will diminish quickly with north and east extent. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... A positively tilted upper trough will move from the MS Valley vicinity to just offshore the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of this system will overspread much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, southerly low-level winds ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will spread low/mid 60s F dewpoints northward across southern AL/GA and parts of FL, with 50s dewpoints extending northeast into the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing just ahead of the cold front Friday morning from the Ohio/TN Valley to the central Gulf coast. A narrow corridor of higher surface dewpoints and modest elevated instability will be in place downstream from this early activity across southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Isolated strong thunderstorms, mainly capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts, will be possible within this zone of overlapping strong vertical shear and weak elevated instability during the afternoon. Overall severe potential should remain limited due to poor low-level lapse rates/thermodynamics, and will diminish quickly with north and east extent. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0124 PM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A couple of strong/potentially severe storms may occur over parts of the central/eastern Gulf Coast region Friday. ...Central Gulf Coast Vicinity... A positively tilted upper trough will move from the MS Valley vicinity to just offshore the Atlantic coast on Friday. Strong southwesterly deep-layer flow ahead of this system will overspread much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, southerly low-level winds ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will spread low/mid 60s F dewpoints northward across southern AL/GA and parts of FL, with 50s dewpoints extending northeast into the coastal Carolinas/southeast VA. Showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing just ahead of the cold front Friday morning from the Ohio/TN Valley to the central Gulf coast. A narrow corridor of higher surface dewpoints and modest elevated instability will be in place downstream from this early activity across southern AL/southwest GA and the FL Panhandle. Isolated strong thunderstorms, mainly capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts, will be possible within this zone of overlapping strong vertical shear and weak elevated instability during the afternoon. Overall severe potential should remain limited due to poor low-level lapse rates/thermodynamics, and will diminish quickly with north and east extent. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

MD 0057 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA...FAR EASTERN NEW YORK...MASSACHUSETTS...VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE
Mesoscale Discussion 0057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1039 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Areas affected...portions of extreme northeast Pennsylvania...far eastern New York...Massachusetts...Vermont...New Hampshire Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 291639Z - 291845Z SUMMARY...Occasional snow-squall conditions are possible in stronger portions of a snow band over the next few hours. A rapid onset of moderate snow, gusty winds, and reduced visibility may all occur. DISCUSSION...A low-topped, progressive convective snow band has recently materialized, with a 10 F surface temperature drop, moderate snowfall rates, and half-mile visibility reductions noted on surface observations over the past couple of hours. This band is being driven by a progressive cold front and rapidly ejecting mid-level trough, which is also preceded by at least partially clearing skies. 16Z mesoanalysis shows up to 8 C/km low-level lapse rates downstream of the snow band, suggesting that snow squall potential may increase this afternoon in stronger convective cells. Bouts of at least moderate snowfall rates, as well as a 10 F temperature drop, 25+ kt gusts, and visibility reduced to a quarter mile, may occur with this band until it moves offshore. ..Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM... LAT...LON 41657666 42767392 44517271 45077227 45297141 45007096 44297103 43157069 42667073 42357092 42067231 41747391 41617466 41617538 41657666 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...East TX into the Lower MS Valley... Overall limited changes have been made to the categorical/probabilistic outlooks lines with the Day 2 update. A mid/upper low and attendant positively tilted trough will develop east/northeast from the southern Rockies/Plains toward the MS Valley on Friday. An intense 500 mb southwesterly jet streak (near 100 kt) ahead of this feature, with a broader swath of 50-80 kt southwesterly flow in the mid/upper levels, will move across the southern Plains and Mid/Lower MS Valley. A 40+ kt southerly low-level jet will aid in strong warm advection from east TX into the Mid-South/Lower MS Valley. While surface cyclogenesis will be modest, the larger mass response will aid in northward transport of Gulf moisture across the region, with 60s F dewpoints generally remaining near/south of the I-20 corridor. A cold front will track east through the period, with a line of convection in advance of this feature bringing some potential for strong to severe thunderstorms. While very favorable vertical wind profiles will be in place across the region, characterized by vertically veering/strengthening winds resulting in enlarged low-level hodographs becoming straight/elongated above 2-3 km, poor thermodynamics will limit a larger severe risk. Mid-60s F dewpoints are expected to remain south of the I-20 corridor, with the more favorable warm sector becoming increasingly pinched off with north and east extent through the evening hours. Poor low-level lapse rates and only modest surface heating will likely preclude much in the way of surface-based instability. Nevertheless, elevated instability will be sufficient for organized line segments/clusters within the favorably sheared environment. This should support a risk for isolated strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps some hail. This risk will be greatest over parts of southeast TX into LA and far southwest MS from around 21-02z as ongoing morning convection moves into a somewhat more moist/unstable airmass. While non-zero, the tornado risk appear limited by the lack of surface-based instability and poor low-level lapse rates. However, given a favorable shear environment, if boundary-layer instability is greater than forecast guidance/soundings indicate, a tornado or two may occur. With loss of daytime heating, strong ascent becoming displaced to the north after dark, and decreasing instability with eastward extent, the severe risk should fairly quickly diminish across MS during the late evening. ..Leitman.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more