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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0637 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery loop indicates a split flow upper-air pattern over North America with a closed mid- to upper-level low meandering over the Desert Southwest. A few showers associated with the upper low may become convectively augmented and yield a couple of lightning flashes. Otherwise, docile conditions will prevail across the remainder of the Lower 48 from a thunderstorm perspective. Deep, cyclonic flow will encompass the Upper Midwest southeastward into the Appalachians/Eastern Seaboard and maintain seasonably cool/stable air via continental trajectories. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/28/2025 Read more

MD 0055 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR NORTH AND WESTERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Areas affected...North and western New York Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 280623Z - 281130Z SUMMARY...Brief, but intense, snow showers along a strong cold front will move into northern and western New York through the overnight hours. Ahead of the front, heavy snowfall rates up to 1-2 inches/hour are possible along the northeastern shores of the Lower Great Lakes. DISCUSSION...A strong cold front, evident by a pronounced leading band of heavy snow showers, has been pushing southeast out of Ontario/Quebec over the past several hours. Higher reflectivity values (up to 30 dBz) and occasional lightning flashes have been noted along portions of the front, indicative of the deep convective nature of the snow bands. Wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph have also been noted with the passage of the front across Ontario/Quebec, as well as occasional visibility reductions. Similar conditions are possible as the snow bands cross the Lower Great Lakes and move into northern and western NY. A combination of rapidly falling temperatures along/behind the front, bursts of heavy snow within the stronger bands, and winds gusting up to 25 mph will support snow squall conditions across northern/western NY, and possibly into central NY, over the next several hours. Prior to the passage of the front, southwesterly winds oriented along Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will continue to support moderate to heavy lake effect snow bands on the northeastern shores of both lakes. Recent surface observations have reported visibility reductions between 1/4 to 3/4 of a mile. Despite 20-30 mph winds, blowing snow model output suggests that these visibility reductions are attributable to moderate to heavy snowfall rates. Recent guidance supports this idea and hints that rates up to 1-2 inches/hour are possible prior to the passage of the front. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...CLE... LAT...LON 42287757 42067847 41987899 41977948 42047976 42197993 42337993 42407972 42617936 42877914 43097911 43237913 43387891 43517827 43417754 43457705 43567674 43827654 44107653 44357633 44807553 45007507 45067476 45077399 45067354 45037338 44897327 44657319 44427333 44217352 43997380 43697430 42337741 42287757 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models forecast steady eastward progression of a cold front across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region Day 4/Friday, as a mid-level low devolves into a fast-moving open wave that is expected to cross the Appalachians Friday night, exiting the East Coast states prior to the start of the Day 5 period. While non-zero severe potential will likely exist ahead of the cold front across southern portions of the central Gulf Coast states, it appears at this time that instability will remain meager at best, limiting overall severe potential. After the front moves offshore, lingering only across the Florida Peninsula Day 5/Saturday, severe weather is not expected. Models begin to diverge Day 6/Sunday, with the GFS maintaining a low-amplitude, quasi-zonal flow regime through much of the remainder of the period. While the ECMWF undergoes a gradual trend of slightly greater amplification toward more pronounced eastern U.S. troughing and central U.S. ridging, prevalence of surface high pressure/cold continental air east of the Rockies precludes severe potential through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more