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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. ..Squitieri.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will meander slowly east across southern CA into northwest AZ during the period. A belt of strong upper flow will extend from Baja California east across the southern U.S. while a split flow regime is maintained with troughing over the Great Lakes. In the low levels, a frontal zone will slide southward into the northern Gulf from the central Gulf Coast. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible mainly this morning over the central Gulf Coast, before the focus for isolated thunderstorms focuses farther west over the Mojave Desert into western AZ today. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions will prevail across much of the remainder of the CONUS. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/27/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move into the southern High Plains on Thursday/Day 4, as an associated jet streak moves across Texas. Widespread convection appears likely to be ongoing at the start of the period, related to an MCS along the western edge of the moist sector. It appears the MCS will move into central and northeast Texas during the afternoon, where surface dewpoints should be in the 60s F. This moist and unstable airmass will make strong to severe thunderstorms be possible in the afternoon as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward across the region. Supercells with isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. The mid-level system is forecast to move across the Ark-La-Tex on Friday/Day 5, as a cold front advances eastward into the central Gulf Coast states. Thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front during the day, and a marginal severe threat may develop near the central Gulf Coast. ...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8... The cold front is forecast to move quickly eastward into the Atlantic by Saturday as surface high pressure settles over the eastern U.S. A west-northwest flow mid-level pattern is forecast in the central and eastern U.S. on Sunday/Day 7 and Monday/Day 8. This could help to limit moisture return, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S. Read more