Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1239 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of eastern/southeastern Arizona and into far western/southwestern New Mexico for today. 06 UTC surface observations continue to sample a very dry air mass across the southwestern states with dewpoints between -15 to 5 F and nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens across much of southern to central AZ. Negligible moisture return into the region will promote another day of widespread 10-15% RH minimums. Aloft, an increasingly pronounced upper low along the central CA coast will gradually shift southward over the next 24 hours, maintaining a broad swath of strong southwesterly winds over AZ. Surface pressure falls will be concentrated across southern CA today resulting in weaker pressure gradient winds - generally around 15 mph - compared to yesterday/Saturday; however, the deep dry layer near the surface will facilitate downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, resulting in gusts upwards of 25-35 mph by early afternoon. Recent guidance continues to suggest the windiest conditions will reside on the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim as well as across much of southeast AZ into far southwest NM. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated fire weather conditions remains highest across these regions where fuels remain receptive amid persistent dry/breezy conditions. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. ..Squitieri.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid/upper-level low over CA. A split-flow pattern is located downstream over the central U.S. with southwesterly flow over the Desert Southwest, and northwesterly flow over the Upper Midwest in association with large-scale troughing centered over Hudson Bay. Cold mid-level temperatures associated with the CA upper low will yield intermittent pockets of weak buoyancy from the central valley into southern coastal CA. As a result, weak convection may yield a few sporadic lightning flashes mainly today into this evening. Farther east, persistent low-level warm/moist advection, via the warm conveyor atop a slowly modifying CP airmass along the northwest Gulf Coast, will favor showers and eventually scattered thunderstorm development over east TX into the lower MS Valley. Despite strong mid to high-level westerly flow, limited storm organization is forecast due primarily to weak instability. A vigorous updraft or two cannot be ruled out over east TX on the eastern periphery of steeper 700-500 mb lapse rates (reference 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX raob; 8.7 deg C/km). Yet, gradual moistening of the mid troposphere via convection will act to hinder a localized Marginal hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/26/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5... A mid-level low is forecast to move eastward across the Desert Southwest from Wednesday/Day 4 into Thursday/Day 5. Low-level moisture advection will take place ahead of the system across the southern Plains on Wednesday into Wednesday night, with surface dewpoints increasing into the 60s F across parts of the southern Plains. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms appear likely to develop across the western part of the moist sector Wednesday night across much of central and northern Texas, as large-scale ascent increases ahead of the approaching system. This, combined with increasing instability, and strong deep-layer shear along the western edge of the moist sector should result in a severe threat late Wednesday night. A cluster of strong and potentially severe storms may develop in west-central Texas, with the severe threat persisting into Thursday, as an MCS moves eastward across the southern Plains. Supercells with isolated large hail and wind damage will be possible. There is some concern that moisture return could be slower than forecast. However, the strength of the system could help to overcome instability concerns, and it appears a severe threat will be possible as the mid-level jet ejects northeastward into the southern Plains from Wednesday night into Thursday. ...Friday/Day 6 and Sunday/Day 8... The mid-level trough is forecast to move across the southern Plains on Friday/Day 6, as a cold front advances eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. On Saturday/Day 7 and Sunday/Day 8, this front is forecast to move across the eastern U.S. Although thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, instability is forecast to be very weak suggesting a severe threat will be unlikely. Read more