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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/25/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025/ ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Discussion... Low amplitude nearly zonal westerlies will prevail over the majority of the CONUS to the east of an upper low centered over Nevada and northern California. Near this upper low, cold mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates could contribute to a few lightning flashes with weak convection late this afternoon into evening. Elsewhere, increasing warm/moist advection will lead to scattered elevated convection late tonight/early Sunday across east Texas into northern Louisiana and ArkLaTex, some of which could produce lightning. Severe storms are not expected given weak buoyancy. ..Guyer/Dean.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level low will evolve over central CA during the period with an accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to -28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening. Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby negating a severe hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level low will evolve over central CA during the period with an accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to -28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening. Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby negating a severe hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level low will evolve over central CA during the period with an accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to -28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening. Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby negating a severe hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level low will evolve over central CA during the period with an accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to -28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening. Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby negating a severe hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level low will evolve over central CA during the period with an accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to -28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening. Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby negating a severe hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States today or tonight. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a positive-tilt upper trough extending from the northern Rockies through central CA while zonal flow encompasses much of the central and southern U.S. A mid-level low will evolve over central CA during the period with an accompanying cold pocket yielding 500-mb temperatures around -26 to -28 deg C. Steep lapse rates in the mid levels may yield a few lightning flashes with isolated weak convection mainly this evening. Farther east over east TX into northern LA, the initial stage of moisture return from the Gulf into the coastal plain will act to weakly destabilize the airmass. Weak low-level warm/moist advection will be the primary mechanism for showers and isolated to widely scattered convective development tonight. The lack of a minor disturbance embedded within strong westerly mid to high-level flow suggests limited potential for robust elevated updrafts, thereby negating a severe hail risk. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/25/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a severe threat area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a severe threat area at this time. Read more