Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a severe threat area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a severe threat area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a severe threat area at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 281200Z - 021200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tuesday/Day 4, a mid-level low will likely be in the Desert Southwest. This low is forecast to move southward into northwest Mexico on Wednesday/Day 5, and then eject eastward across the southern Plains from Thursday/Day 6 into Friday/Day 7. This system is forecast to reach the Mississippi Valley late Friday night into early Saturday/Day 8. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture is forecast to return northward into parts of southern and central Texas, where surface dewpoints could reach the 60s F. The models suggest that destabilization will remain rather weak as the system approaches Thursday evening. However, strong lift and deep-layer shear could be enough for organized convection Thursday evening into Thursday night over parts of south and central Texas. The main uncertainty is instability, with the models currently having a wide variance of solutions. The timing of the system is also questionable, which is forecast to move into the southern Plains early in the day on Friday. Due to the uncertainties, will not add a severe threat area at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of southern California on Monday, as a mid-level low moves from near the California coast into the Desert Southwest. Instability in southern Louisiana and southern California is forecast to be very weak, with no severe threat expected. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of southern California on Monday, as a mid-level low moves from near the California coast into the Desert Southwest. Instability in southern Louisiana and southern California is forecast to be very weak, with no severe threat expected. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of southern California on Monday, as a mid-level low moves from near the California coast into the Desert Southwest. Instability in southern Louisiana and southern California is forecast to be very weak, with no severe threat expected. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of southern California on Monday, as a mid-level low moves from near the California coast into the Desert Southwest. Instability in southern Louisiana and southern California is forecast to be very weak, with no severe threat expected. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of southern California on Monday, as a mid-level low moves from near the California coast into the Desert Southwest. Instability in southern Louisiana and southern California is forecast to be very weak, with no severe threat expected. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday from southern Louisiana into far southeast Texas, and in southern California, but no severe threat is expected. ...Synopsis... At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move through the lower Mississippi Valley on Monday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the morning near the front, mainly across southern Louisiana. Additional thunderstorms could develop near the coast of southern California on Monday, as a mid-level low moves from near the California coast into the Desert Southwest. Instability in southern Louisiana and southern California is forecast to be very weak, with no severe threat expected. ..Broyles.. 01/25/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to linger across parts of southeastern and eastern Arizona on Sunday, but will remain limited elsewhere across the country. An upper wave that is in the early stages of amplification along the northern CA coast is forecast to continue deepening through the weekend as is migrates south/southeast towards the SoCal coast. This will maintain a swath of strong mid-level winds across much of AZ for the next 24-48 hours. At the surface, the greatest pressure falls will likely reside along the SoCal coast in proximity to the deepening upper wave and across portions of northern Mexico, resulting in a somewhat muted pressure gradient compared to today/Saturday. Consequently, winds will likely be weaker, but most solutions suggest sustained winds around 15 mph are still probable across southeast AZ where a deep boundary layer will aid in downward mixing of stronger mid-level winds, and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim. Limited moisture return into the region will maintain RH minimums generally between 10-15%. Combined with antecedent dry fuels and breezy conditions, this should promote another day of at least elevated fire weather conditions. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Jan 25 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF EASTERN ARIZONA... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA... ...Synopsis... Critical fire weather concerns are expected today across portions of southern and east-central Arizona. Early-morning water-vapor imagery shows a deepening upper trough off the northern CA coast with additional impulses embedded within the mean southwesterly flow ahead of the primary upper trough axis. These features are expected to shift east/southeast into the lower CO River Valley and Southwest through today, resulting in surface pressure falls from central CA into the Four Corners region. The low-level mass response will induce south/southwesterly winds across much of AZ and adjacent portions of NM, CA, and southern NV with 15-25 mph winds likely. Recent ensemble guidance continues to suggest the strongest winds will likely reside across south-central AZ and along the northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim where sustained winds of at least 20 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible. Despite an increase in cloud cover, a very dry air mass currently in place across southern AZ (characterized by nocturnal RH values in the single digits to low teens) will spread north and promote widespread RH minimums near 10-15% by mid/late afternoon. Consequently, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon. Substantial 30-day rainfall deficits have resulted in receptive fuels across much of the region with ERCs generally around the 80th percentile, which is sufficient to support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/25/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more