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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0322 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z The long-wave pattern will be characterized by a cut-off low lingering across the western US, with periods of windy and dry conditions before potential for precipitation increases early next week. Late in the period, this system will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains an Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ...D3/Northern Arizona... Enhanced upper-level flow will remain across northern Arizona on Sunday, with potential for strong southwesterly surface winds to continue across the Mogollon Rim. Overlap of afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-20 percent with sustained southwesterly winds at 10-15 mph will be possible. Moisture will slowly increase D3/Sunday into D4/Monday across the region, with some increase in relative humidity across the western Mogollon Rim southward. This leads to uncertainty that relative humidity reductions will be widespread enough to warrant Critical highlights. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...20z Update... No changes, thunderstorms are unlikely over the CONUS. See the prior outlook for additional info. ..Lyons.. 01/24/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure and a stable airmass remain in place across the CONUS as mid-level troughs eject into the Atlantic and impinge on the West Coast, inhibiting thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...TX Coast to Lower MS Valley... A surface cold front is forecast to be located near the Texas Coast Sunday morning. This front will shift east over the western Gulf vicinity, becoming oriented from southwest AL into the western-central Gulf by Monday morning. Ahead of the front, modest moisture will return northward across southern LA/MS/AL, with low 60s F dewpoints remaining confined to the immediate coast. Weak elevated instability will be supported by steep midlevel lapse rates, though surface-based instability will be mitigated by poor lapse rates/cool boundary-layer temperatures. Modest ascent associated with the front and a weak shortwave impulse aloft may support isolated thunderstorms across portions of the TX coast to the Lower MS Valley. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 01/24/2025 Read more