Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain throughout the day into the overnight period. After midnight, lift along the western edge of the low-level jet may be conducive to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, instability is forecast to remain weak and no severe threat expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain throughout the day into the overnight period. After midnight, lift along the western edge of the low-level jet may be conducive to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, instability is forecast to remain weak and no severe threat expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain throughout the day into the overnight period. After midnight, lift along the western edge of the low-level jet may be conducive to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, instability is forecast to remain weak and no severe threat expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible in parts of central and east Texas Saturday night. ...DISCUSSION... West to west-southwest mid-level flow will be in place across the southern U.S from Saturday into Saturday night. Beneath this flow, a belt of strong low-level flow will be in place across parts of central and east Texas. In response, low-level moisture return is forecast to take place across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain throughout the day into the overnight period. After midnight, lift along the western edge of the low-level jet may be conducive to isolated to scattered thunderstorm development. However, instability is forecast to remain weak and no severe threat expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Discussion... Multiple continental surges have overspread the CONUS the last few days. Resultant deep offshore flow has forced any semblance of low-level moisture/buoyancy well east and south of the Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. Deep convection is not expected. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm threat is negligible tonight. ...01z Update... Continental air mass dominates the majority of the CONUS this evening. Offshore flow and stable conditions will prevent deep convection along with any threat for lightning. ..Darrow.. 01/24/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jan 23 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 311200Z On Day 3/Saturday, west-southwesterly deep-layer flow will gradually strengthen across the Southwest, southern Great Basin, and inland southern CA ahead of a midlevel trough. As a result, dry/breezy conditions will develop across the region, with locally elevated fire-weather conditions possible -- especially across portions of southern/central AZ and the inland mountains of southern CA. By Day 3/Saturday evening/night, precipitation will likely overspread much of southern CA and persist through the weekend. This should reduce fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. From Day 4/Sunday through Day 6/Tuesday, locally dry/breezy conditions will be possible across the Southwest into the southern Rockies each afternoon, as the midlevel trough/low (and strong flow aloft) continues slowly east-southeastward. Similar conditions will be possible across the southern High Plains on Days 7-8/Wednesday-Thursday. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, though mostly marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Weinman.. 01/23/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more