Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough over the West will become detached from the larger-scale upper trough over Canada, with an upper low moving south into central CA by Sunday morning. To the east, mostly westerly flow aloft will exist across much of the central and eastern, with a surface high over the Southeast. Southerly surface winds will bring moisture northward toward the TX Coast overnight, with elevated instability developing as far east as LA. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop late over eastern TX and toward the Sabine Valley within the warm advection regime. Low-level shear near this warm frontal zone will likely remain ineffective as far as severe weather potential given the relatively poor lapse rates. However, deepening moisture through 700 mb will likely lead to general thunderstorms in those areas. ..Jewell.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough over the West will become detached from the larger-scale upper trough over Canada, with an upper low moving south into central CA by Sunday morning. To the east, mostly westerly flow aloft will exist across much of the central and eastern, with a surface high over the Southeast. Southerly surface winds will bring moisture northward toward the TX Coast overnight, with elevated instability developing as far east as LA. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop late over eastern TX and toward the Sabine Valley within the warm advection regime. Low-level shear near this warm frontal zone will likely remain ineffective as far as severe weather potential given the relatively poor lapse rates. However, deepening moisture through 700 mb will likely lead to general thunderstorms in those areas. ..Jewell.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are not forecast for Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, an upper trough over the West will become detached from the larger-scale upper trough over Canada, with an upper low moving south into central CA by Sunday morning. To the east, mostly westerly flow aloft will exist across much of the central and eastern, with a surface high over the Southeast. Southerly surface winds will bring moisture northward toward the TX Coast overnight, with elevated instability developing as far east as LA. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop late over eastern TX and toward the Sabine Valley within the warm advection regime. Low-level shear near this warm frontal zone will likely remain ineffective as far as severe weather potential given the relatively poor lapse rates. However, deepening moisture through 700 mb will likely lead to general thunderstorms in those areas. ..Jewell.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the lower Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, and will quickly move to the East Coast by evening. Behind this trough, zonal flow will develop across much of central and southern CONUS, allowing warming aloft. High pressure will move from the Plains into the eastern states through the period, prolonging dry offshore winds across much of the Southeast. While southerly low-level flow will develop late across the western Gulf and into TX, instability supportive of thunderstorms is not forecast this early in the return cycle. Elsewhere, another large lobe of vorticity will rotate southward across the northern Rockies and Pacific NW during the day, into the Great Basin by Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft will be cold, but little instability is forecast to support any convection/lightning. ..Jewell.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the lower Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, and will quickly move to the East Coast by evening. Behind this trough, zonal flow will develop across much of central and southern CONUS, allowing warming aloft. High pressure will move from the Plains into the eastern states through the period, prolonging dry offshore winds across much of the Southeast. While southerly low-level flow will develop late across the western Gulf and into TX, instability supportive of thunderstorms is not forecast this early in the return cycle. Elsewhere, another large lobe of vorticity will rotate southward across the northern Rockies and Pacific NW during the day, into the Great Basin by Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft will be cold, but little instability is forecast to support any convection/lightning. ..Jewell.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the lower Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, and will quickly move to the East Coast by evening. Behind this trough, zonal flow will develop across much of central and southern CONUS, allowing warming aloft. High pressure will move from the Plains into the eastern states through the period, prolonging dry offshore winds across much of the Southeast. While southerly low-level flow will develop late across the western Gulf and into TX, instability supportive of thunderstorms is not forecast this early in the return cycle. Elsewhere, another large lobe of vorticity will rotate southward across the northern Rockies and Pacific NW during the day, into the Great Basin by Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft will be cold, but little instability is forecast to support any convection/lightning. ..Jewell.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1226 AM CST Thu Jan 23 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... An elongated positive-tilt upper trough will extend from the lower Great Lakes into the lower MS Valley Friday morning, and will quickly move to the East Coast by evening. Behind this trough, zonal flow will develop across much of central and southern CONUS, allowing warming aloft. High pressure will move from the Plains into the eastern states through the period, prolonging dry offshore winds across much of the Southeast. While southerly low-level flow will develop late across the western Gulf and into TX, instability supportive of thunderstorms is not forecast this early in the return cycle. Elsewhere, another large lobe of vorticity will rotate southward across the northern Rockies and Pacific NW during the day, into the Great Basin by Saturday morning. Temperatures aloft will be cold, but little instability is forecast to support any convection/lightning. ..Jewell.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move southeastward into the central U.S. today, as a large surface high settles in across much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move southeastward into the central U.S. today, as a large surface high settles in across much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move southeastward into the central U.S. today, as a large surface high settles in across much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move southeastward into the central U.S. today, as a large surface high settles in across much of the continental U.S. For this reason, thunderstorm development is not expected across the U.S. today and tonight. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale mid-level trough, from the Great Lakes southwestward into the central states, will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure associated with dry and stable air, will remain from the eastern U.S. into the Gulf Coast region. Further west into the central U.S., a front with cold and dry air in its wake will advance southward. Due to the dry and relatively stable conditions over the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected through daybreak Thursday. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale mid-level trough, from the Great Lakes southwestward into the central states, will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure associated with dry and stable air, will remain from the eastern U.S. into the Gulf Coast region. Further west into the central U.S., a front with cold and dry air in its wake will advance southward. Due to the dry and relatively stable conditions over the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected through daybreak Thursday. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected across the continental U.S. through tonight. ...DISCUSSION... A large-scale mid-level trough, from the Great Lakes southwestward into the central states, will move eastward into the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. At the surface, high pressure associated with dry and stable air, will remain from the eastern U.S. into the Gulf Coast region. Further west into the central U.S., a front with cold and dry air in its wake will advance southward. Due to the dry and relatively stable conditions over the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected through daybreak Thursday. ..Broyles.. 01/23/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Jan 22 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Jan 22 22:22:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Southern California... A very dry air mass will persist across southern CA on Day 3/Friday, though offshore winds will be gradually subsiding during this time. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible along wind-prone mountains/valleys, critical conditions are not currently expected. Thereafter, onshore flow will favor increasing moisture and precipitation chances across the region for this weekend into early next week -- generally reducing fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... On Day 3/Friday, dry/breezy return flow will develop across the southern Plains, aided by a deepening lee cyclone over the High Plains. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, generally marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. By Day 4/Saturday, strong southerly surface winds and low RH will develop across portions of the Southwest ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, though critical conditions are not currently expected -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Southern California... A very dry air mass will persist across southern CA on Day 3/Friday, though offshore winds will be gradually subsiding during this time. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible along wind-prone mountains/valleys, critical conditions are not currently expected. Thereafter, onshore flow will favor increasing moisture and precipitation chances across the region for this weekend into early next week -- generally reducing fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... On Day 3/Friday, dry/breezy return flow will develop across the southern Plains, aided by a deepening lee cyclone over the High Plains. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, generally marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. By Day 4/Saturday, strong southerly surface winds and low RH will develop across portions of the Southwest ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, though critical conditions are not currently expected -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Southern California... A very dry air mass will persist across southern CA on Day 3/Friday, though offshore winds will be gradually subsiding during this time. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible along wind-prone mountains/valleys, critical conditions are not currently expected. Thereafter, onshore flow will favor increasing moisture and precipitation chances across the region for this weekend into early next week -- generally reducing fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... On Day 3/Friday, dry/breezy return flow will develop across the southern Plains, aided by a deepening lee cyclone over the High Plains. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, generally marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. By Day 4/Saturday, strong southerly surface winds and low RH will develop across portions of the Southwest ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, though critical conditions are not currently expected -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Southern California... A very dry air mass will persist across southern CA on Day 3/Friday, though offshore winds will be gradually subsiding during this time. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible along wind-prone mountains/valleys, critical conditions are not currently expected. Thereafter, onshore flow will favor increasing moisture and precipitation chances across the region for this weekend into early next week -- generally reducing fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... On Day 3/Friday, dry/breezy return flow will develop across the southern Plains, aided by a deepening lee cyclone over the High Plains. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, generally marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. By Day 4/Saturday, strong southerly surface winds and low RH will develop across portions of the Southwest ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, though critical conditions are not currently expected -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more