Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z ...Southern California... A very dry air mass will persist across southern CA on Day 3/Friday, though offshore winds will be gradually subsiding during this time. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible along wind-prone mountains/valleys, critical conditions are not currently expected. Thereafter, onshore flow will favor increasing moisture and precipitation chances across the region for this weekend into early next week -- generally reducing fire-weather concerns through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ...Southern Plains and Southwest... On Day 3/Friday, dry/breezy return flow will develop across the southern Plains, aided by a deepening lee cyclone over the High Plains. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, generally marginal fuels should limit the potential for critical conditions. By Day 4/Saturday, strong southerly surface winds and low RH will develop across portions of the Southwest ahead of an approaching midlevel trough. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible, though critical conditions are not currently expected -- precluding Critical probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were extended westward to the Malibu Coast and to the coast in Orange County. For both areas, high-resolution guidance depicts 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH -- especially during the morning into afternoon hours. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, localized extremely critical conditions are possible over terrain-favored areas, though these conditions still appear too localized for an upgrade to Extremely Critical at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were extended westward to the Malibu Coast and to the coast in Orange County. For both areas, high-resolution guidance depicts 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH -- especially during the morning into afternoon hours. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, localized extremely critical conditions are possible over terrain-favored areas, though these conditions still appear too localized for an upgrade to Extremely Critical at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were extended westward to the Malibu Coast and to the coast in Orange County. For both areas, high-resolution guidance depicts 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH -- especially during the morning into afternoon hours. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, localized extremely critical conditions are possible over terrain-favored areas, though these conditions still appear too localized for an upgrade to Extremely Critical at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were extended westward to the Malibu Coast and to the coast in Orange County. For both areas, high-resolution guidance depicts 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH -- especially during the morning into afternoon hours. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, localized extremely critical conditions are possible over terrain-favored areas, though these conditions still appear too localized for an upgrade to Extremely Critical at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were extended westward to the Malibu Coast and to the coast in Orange County. For both areas, high-resolution guidance depicts 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH -- especially during the morning into afternoon hours. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, localized extremely critical conditions are possible over terrain-favored areas, though these conditions still appear too localized for an upgrade to Extremely Critical at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA... The Critical highlights were extended westward to the Malibu Coast and to the coast in Orange County. For both areas, high-resolution guidance depicts 20+ mph sustained east-northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid single-digit to lower teens RH -- especially during the morning into afternoon hours. As mentioned in the previous discussion below, localized extremely critical conditions are possible over terrain-favored areas, though these conditions still appear too localized for an upgrade to Extremely Critical at this time. ..Weinman.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... Conditions favorable for rapid wildfire spread will continue into tomorrow (Thursday) along coastal portions of southern California, particularly in terrain-favoring areas. Model guidance consensus suggests that the surface pressure gradient will be strongest shortly after 12Z Thursday morning. During the morning, offshore sustained winds should exceed 20 mph on a widespread basis. Furthermore, some high-resolution guidance suggests that brief instances of sustained winds well over 50 mph (with higher gusts approaching 70 mph) may occur over the higher terrain of the San Gabriel to Laguna Mountain ranges. These very strong winds amid 10 percent RH will support high-end Critical conditions, with at least locally Extremely Critical conditions likely in spots. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the valid outlook. High pressure is supporting cold and dry conditions over much of the eastern and western US. Offshore flow over the eastern seaboard and Gulf Coast will preclude thunderstorm development. See the prior outlook for additional information. ..Lyons.. 01/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper troughing currently in place across much of the CONUS is expected to persist throughout the day, reinforced by a shortwave trough forecast to move southward across the Four Corner and into NM and another shortwave trough that is expected to move southward through the northern Rockies late tonight/early tomorrow. At the surface, expansive and cold high pressure, currently centered over western PA, will gradually shift eastward, while maintain offshore flow along the East and Gulf Coasts. Cold high pressure is also in place across the western CONUS. This area of high pressure will likely strengthen throughout the period, potentially exceeding 1050 mb over eastern ID tomorrow morning. Dry and stable conditions promoted by these features will preclude thunderstorm development. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast for Friday. ...Synopsis... Expansive surface high pressure and cold temperatures are forecast across much of the CONUS. Continental trajectories will remain offshore, resulting in a dearth of boundary layer moisture and instability. As a result, thunderstorms are not expected through early Saturday morning. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Jan 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast on Thursday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough near the Four Corners will shift east toward the Lower MS Valley and western Gulf vicinity on Thursday. A swath of strong southwesterly mid/upper flow accompanying this system will overspread much of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity. Strong, sprawling surface high pressure and cold temperatures will envelop much of the CONUS, resulting in a dry and stable boundary layer. This will preclude thunderstorm activity on Thursday. ..Leitman.. 01/22/2025 Read more