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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241300Z - 251200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows an upper trough extending from the lower OH Valley southwestward into the northwest Gulf Coast. This upper feature will quickly move east ahead of an amplifying trough over the West. Cool/stable conditions as the result of surface high pressure influencing a large part of the Lower 48 will prove hostile to thunderstorm development through tonight. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/24/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 271200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Monday/Day 4, a shortwave ridge is forecast over the south-central U.S. The overall pattern is forecast to gradually amplify on Tuesday/Day 5 and Wednesday/Day 6, as a mid-level low moves slowly eastward across the Desert Southwest. Ahead of the system, moisture return is expected across the southern Plains in the early to mid week, as mid-level flow becomes southwesterly. A moist airmass is forecast to become established across the southern Plains by Wednesday, with scattered thunderstorms likely to develop in the afternoon and evening across parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The potential for convective development is expected to continue into Thursday/Day 7 and Thursday night as the mid-level system approaches and moves into the southern Plains. At this time, model forecasts suggest that instability, lift and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat in parts of Texas and possibly southern Oklahoma, from Wednesday evening into Thursday. However, there is still substantial variance among solutions concerning this system, and confidence is low concerning magnitude and spacing. At this time, it appears the overall severe threat will remain marginal. On Friday/Day 8, the potential for convection is forecast to move eastward into parts of the Southeast, where little instability is forecast. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore, but surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F from the Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and a severe threat is not expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore, but surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F from the Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and a severe threat is not expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore, but surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F from the Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and a severe threat is not expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore, but surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F from the Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and a severe threat is not expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible from Sunday into Sunday night from the Texas Coastal Plain into the lower Mississippi Valley, but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... Westerly mid-level flow will be in place across the southeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move to the western Gulf Coast. Ahead of the front, a moist airmass will remain mostly offshore, but surface dewpoints could reach the lower 60s F from the Texas coast into far southwest Louisiana. Thunderstorms could develop during the day near the front across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain northeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. Instability is forecast to remain weak, and a severe threat is not expected to develop. ..Broyles.. 01/24/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to emerge across portions of Arizona by Saturday afternoon as low-level winds increase in response to a deepening upper wave along the West Coast. The breakdown of an upper ridge over the West Coast is underway ahead of an approaching trough based on recent water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses. Broad surface pressure falls are anticipated across the greater inter-mountain West/High Plains over the next 24 hours, but will intensify over the Southwest through Saturday as the upper wave deepens along the southern CA coast. Recent forecast guidance suggests south/southeasterly winds between 15-25 mph will be likely - especially in the lee/northern slopes of the Mogollon Rim and across south-central AZ by late afternoon. Extensive mid/high-level cloud cover is anticipated through much of the day as mid-level isentropic ascent increases ahead of the deepening upper trough. However, 07 UTC surface observations sampled a very dry air mass across southern to central AZ characterized by dewpoints between -5 to -15 F. Consequently, even muted diurnal heating should promote RH reductions into the single digits to low teens, which will support elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. Recent fuel analyses show ERC values generally near/above the 80th percentile - likely the result of 30-day rainfall totals between 2 to 5% of normal, which should support the fire weather concern. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 AM CST Fri Jan 24 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough migrating southeastward out of southwestern Canada will support widespread surface pressure falls across the inter-mountain West and central High Plains. Breezy conditions are expected along the southern CA coast and southern Plains in response to the broad-scale, low-level mass response with an attendant increase in fire weather potential. ...Southern California Coast... 06 UTC surface observations show a 1030-1036 mb surface high over parts of the Great Basin, which is promoting a moderate offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast. Areas of 15-25 mph are expected to persist through the early morning hours and into the afternoon before diminishing through late afternoon/evening as the surface high weakens amid surface pressure falls related to the approaching upper wave. While the strongest winds may be temporally offset from peak diurnal heating, a prolonged period of offshore/downslope winds has resulted in very low (5-15%) RH along the coast, which will support fire weather concerns through the morning and early afternoon. ...Southern Plains... Surface high pressure currently over southern TX (as of 06 UTC) is expected to shift east over the next 12 hours. Concurrently, surface pressure falls along the central High Plains ahead of a weak cold front will promote strengthening pressure gradient wind across the southern Plains. 15-25 mph southwest winds are likely across much of western TX into southwest OK with RH reductions generally between 15-25%. Elevated fire weather conditions are likely, and a few locations may experience periods of critical conditions. However, recent ERC analyses suggest that fuels are only modestly receptive (between the 50-80th percentiles), which should limit fire spread potential outside of areas with heavy loading of 1 and 10-hour fuels. ..Moore.. 01/24/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more