Aggregator

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential will remain very low through tonight. ...20Z Update... Minimal changes were made to the ongoing forecast based on current observations. ..Wendt.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... A 500 mb cyclone will meander across the Southwest as a mid-level trough deepens across the Northeast, reinforcing surface high pressure and subsidence across most of the CONUS, where thunderstorm development should remain limited. One exception is the Lower Colorado Basin region. Here, cooler temperatures aloft with the mid-level low will promote enough buoyancy (albeit scant) and lift to support isolated thunderstorms across far southeast CA today into western and central AZ tonight. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS.... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with isolated large hail and severe gusts, will be possible across parts of the southern Plains from late Wednesday afternoon through early Thursday morning. An upper low currently over southern CA will track eastward and be positioned over the Four-Corners region by Wednesday. Meanwhile, strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread much of TX. A deepening surface low over west TX and northern Mexico will strengthen southerly low-level winds and help draw a moist and marginally unstable air mass northward into much of central/east TX. This will result in increasing potential for showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday night. Forecast soundings across this region show favorable deep layer and low-level shear for convective organization, but lapse rates and overall instability will be limited. Most 12z model guidance suggests thunderstorms will grow in coverage through the afternoon and evening, with potential MCS development. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two are the main concerns as this activity tracks across parts of central TX. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1059 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/27/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will linger across parts of southeast Arizona and far west/southwest New Mexico this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across portions of the central Plains, but fire concerns are limited due to modest fuel status. ...Arizona/New Mexico... A pronounced upper-level low will continue to gradually shift east towards western AZ over the next 24 hours. Early-morning water-vapor imagery and upper-air analyses depict a mid-level jet overspreading northwest Mexico and southwest AZ. The eastward translation of these features through the day will support surface pressure falls across the Southwest - especially along the AZ/NM border. Recent deterministic solutions continue to suggest sustained winds near 15 mph are likely across this region. Deep mixing through 700 mb will facilitate downward momentum transfer as 850-700 mb winds strengthen with the approach of the mid-level jet. This will promote gusts upwards of 20-30 mph, especially within the higher terrain of southeast AZ into southwest NM. Some moisture recovery has been noted across southern AZ in 48-hour meteograms, but the air mass remains anomalously dry for late January with dewpoints in the single digits. Consequently, afternoon RH minimums between 10-20% are likely. Combined with the breezy conditions and receptive fuels (ERCs generally between the 80th-90th percentile), elevated fire weather conditions appear likely. ...Central Plains... Surface winds are forecast to increase through late afternoon across much of the Plains and the Midwest as a surface low currently south of Hudson Bay intensifies ahead of a progressive upper trough moving southeast across Canada. While the Plains will be well displaced from the strongest winds, west/northwesterly low-level trajectories emanating out of the High Plains (where dewpoints are in the single digits) will promote breezy and dry conditions this afternoon. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible - especially across NE where the best overlap of 15-25% RH and 15-20 mph winds is anticipated. However, fuels across this region are only modestly dry with ERCs generally between the 60-80th percentiles, which should modulate the overall fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms may affect northwest Arizona on Tuesday. Relatively dry and stable conditions are expected to prevail across the continental United States on Tuesday, precluding thunderstorms in most areas. One exception will be over the mountains of northwest AZ, where a cold upper low will be centered. Forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and weak-but-sufficient CAPE for some risk of isolated afternoon/evening thunderstorms. ..Hart.. 01/27/2025 Read more