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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN TEXAS INTO WESTERN MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... Strong/isolated severe storms will be possible Thursday from eastern Texas eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper low initially forecast to lie over the central/southern High Plains area will shift eastward across Kansas/Oklahoma Thursday, and across the Ozarks Thursday night. As this occurs, a weak surface low is forecast to evolve/shift north-northeastward out of northeastern Texas into Arkansas during the first half of the period, and then on northeastward to Illinois overnight. A trailing front will shift eastward out of eastern Texas into Arkansas/Louisiana with time, and then across the Lower Mississippi Valley to the Lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys and central Gulf Coast states through the end of the period. ...East Texas to Mississippi... As the surface low shifts north-northeastward with time, and a cold front begins to advance eastward, persistent southerly low-level flow will advect partially modified Gulf air northward into southeastern Texas and Louisiana. Though lapse rates will remain weak, low-level moistening should be sufficient to allow very weak/tall/skinny surface-based CAPE to develop ahead of the advancing front. Elevated convection should be ongoing at the start of the period, moving out of the Hill Country and into East Texas. As the low-level moistening gradually allows storms to become surface-based, potential for damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes will increase through the afternoon, likely maximizing during the early evening hours and expanding into/across Louisiana. Despite the weak CAPE which should hinder the overall risk, very favorable low-level and deep-layer shear will characterize the warm sector, with southerlies increasing and veering substantially with height through the lower half of the troposphere. The main storm mode is expected to be rotating storms embedded within linear bands, spreading eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley through the evening before weakening overnight ..Goss.. 01/28/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited for Wednesday across the country. The upper low currently over western Arizona will shift into the southern Plains through Wednesday evening. Widespread rain chances will overspread the southern Plains and Southwest regions through the day limiting fire weather potential for most areas. One exception is West Texas and south-central NM where rainfall should be limited. While breezy southwest winds are likely, recent guidance suggests the probability of reaching elevated RH thresholds is low. Elsewhere across the country, cool temperatures, weak winds, and/or recent rain/snowfall preclude fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0107 AM CST Tue Jan 28 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns appear limited for today across the country, though localized elevated conditions may emerge across parts of the central Plains and southwest New Mexico. Early-morning water vapor imagery depicts a de-amplifying upper low over western AZ. This feature is expected to meander east through the day, resulting in modest surface pressure falls across western NM and maintaining 30-40 knot mid-level winds over the region. While pressure gradient winds are expected to be modest (10-15 mph) diurnal heating of a very dry low-level air mass (well sampled by the 00 UTC EPZ sounding) will support deep mixing and downward momentum transfer of the stronger mid-level winds, manifesting as 20-30 mph gusts at the surface. With afternoon RH minimums in the teens expected again for today, localized elevated fire weather conditions may emerge across southwest NM where these stronger gusts are most likely to occur based on recent ensemble guidance. Across the Plains, a clipper low moving southeastward out of the Canadian Prairies will maintain a moderate pressure gradient over the central to northern Plains. Winds between 15-20 mph are expected, with some RH reductions into the 20-35% range possible as a dry air mass (currently upstream over the High Plains) overspreads the region. Confidence in sustained/widespread elevated conditions remains limited, and fuels remain only modestly dry. These concerns preclude highlights at this time, but localized elevated conditions are possible across portions of NE and SD. ..Moore.. 01/28/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more