Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1051 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291700Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 01/29/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to be limited today across the country, though localized concerns may emerge across the southern High Plains as well as across parts of the Mid-Atlantic. ...Southern High Plains... An upper low over the Southwest will continue to meander east into the southern Plains. While widespread rain is expected to overspread much of the southern Plains, portions of West Texas and far southern NM will likely remain dry while west/southwest winds strengthen through late afternoon. The eastward advection of a dry air mass (currently in place across southern AZ/southwest NM) coupled with some degree of downslope warming/drying will support RH reductions into the low 20s and teens. Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, but modestly receptive fuels (ERCs generally below the 80th percentile) should limit fire concerns. ...Mid-Atlantic... Further east, a strong low migrating across the Northeast will induce 15-20 mph westerly winds along the lee of the southern to central Appalachians. Downslope warming will likely support afternoon RH minimums between 20-30%. Elevated conditions appear likely across central to eastern VA and NC, but as with the southern High Plains, fuels are generally unreceptive. However, very fine (1-hour) fuels may see sufficient drying for localized fire weather concerns this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1041 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across central/north Texas into far southern Oklahoma tonight. ...Central/North Texas to southern Oklahoma... A prominent southern-stream upper low over the Southwest Deserts/southern Rockies and far northwest Mexico will shift generally east-northeastward, with the parent upper trough gradually taking on a more positive tilt over time. Dramatically strengthening southwesterly winds aloft will overspread a moistening boundary layer across much of southern/central/east Texas where lower 60s F dewpoints will become more common into tonight. Multi-layer overcast will tend to hinder heating and overall destabilization. Isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon over northeast Texas toward the ArkLaTex, but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, the arrival of stronger large-scale forcing for ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate increasing showers/thunderstorms from central/north Texas into southeast Oklahoma. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for severe hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight time frame as storms become oriented in a large band. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ...Southern New York/southern New England... Low-topped wintry convection may reach sufficient depths/mixed-phase to produce occasional lightning flashes through late afternoon or around sunset as a cold front spreads southeastward. Some convective influence to stronger wind gusts may occur as well. ..Guyer/Squitieri.. 01/29/2025 Read more

A farmer near Casa Grande doesn’t have enough water to irrigate all of her crops. 12 News (Phoenix, Ariz.), Jan 21, 2025

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the southern Great Plains tonight. ..Southern Great Plains... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a closed upper low over the Desert Southwest. This upper feature will gradually move eastward through daybreak Thursday reaching the Sangre de Cristos. Widespread cloud cover over central/eastern TX into OK will tend to limit diurnal heating today. Southerly low-level flow over south/coastal TX will slowly intensify as a still modifying airmass over the western Gulf of America moves inland into the TX Hill Country. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later this afternoon over northeast TX into AR but weak elevated instability will limit storm intensity. By mid to late evening, prior moistening during the day into the early evening will yield weak instability (250-1000 J/kg MUCAPE) from west-central TX north-northeastward into southern OK. The arrival of stronger large-scale ascent associated with the approaching upper low and Pacific cold front will facilitate the development of showers/thunderstorms from central TX into southern OK. Relatively cool 500-mb temperatures around -16 deg C will support a potential risk for large hail with a few of the stronger updrafts. Convective coverage is forecast to quickly increase during the late evening/overnight timeframe as storms become oriented in a large band. An accompanying risk for isolated strong to locally severe will likely continue through the overnight. A surface-based warm sector may eventually be encountered by storms on the southern portion of the band near the I-35 corridor overnight. A marginal risk for severe gusts and perhaps a tornado could develop with this activity. ..Smith/Kerr.. 01/29/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S. is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more zonal configuration. A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend), and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week). In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift gradually eastward across southern Canada. As this occurs, an Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the CONUS. With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low through the period. While some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front, minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at this time should hinder more robust convection through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S. is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more zonal configuration. A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend), and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week). In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift gradually eastward across southern Canada. As this occurs, an Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the CONUS. With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low through the period. While some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front, minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at this time should hinder more robust convection through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S. is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more zonal configuration. A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend), and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week). In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift gradually eastward across southern Canada. As this occurs, an Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the CONUS. With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low through the period. While some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front, minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at this time should hinder more robust convection through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S. is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more zonal configuration. A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend), and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week). In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift gradually eastward across southern Canada. As this occurs, an Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the CONUS. With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low through the period. While some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front, minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at this time should hinder more robust convection through the period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Jan 29 2025 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... As a short-wave trough continues shifting away from the U.S./across the western Atlantic early in the period, flow aloft across the U.S. is progged by medium-range models to gradually trend toward a more zonal configuration. A trough/low is forecast to shift eastward out of the Canadian Rockies and across the Prairie Provinces days 4-5 (this weekend), and then eastward across Ontario, Quebec, and eventually the Maritime Provinces days 5-7 (early next week). In tandem, an associated/deepening surface low will likewise shift gradually eastward across southern Canada. As this occurs, an Arctic cold front will evolve, shifting eastward across the Great Lakes and then the Northeast, while the trailing portion of the boundary sags southward in a more west-to-east orientation, roughly paralleling the zonal flow aloft prevailing by this time over the CONUS. With the zonal flow, and sagging west-to-east front, severe-weather potential appears likely to remain low through the period. While some convection will be possible near/south of the sagging front, minimal northward advection of low-level moisture and weak lapse rates suggest lack of appreciable instability, which it appears at this time should hinder more robust convection through the period. Read more