Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CST Mon Jan 27 2025 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not forecast across the continental U.S. Tuesday or Tuesday night. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low is forecast to remain over northern Arizona on Tuesday as flow becomes more southwesterly across western parts of the southern Plains. In response, low-level moisture advection will take place across parts of southern and central Texas from Tuesday into Tuesday night. The moist sector will remain largely void of precipitation, except toward the end of the period when shower development will be possible near the Red River along the northern edge of the stronger low-level flow. Instability is expected to be insufficient for thunderstorm development. Elsewhere across the continental U.S., thunderstorms are not expected Tuesday and Tuesday night. ..Broyles.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Lingering isolated thunderstorms are likely this morning across the lower Mississippi River Valley with more persistent, though still isolated, thunderstorms chances across southern California into portions of the lower Colorado Valley. Severe weather potential remains quite low. ...Synopsis... A broad upper-level trough remains in place from the Great Lakes region through the Southwest with a more pronounced upper low just off the southern CA coast based on late-evening water vapor imagery and 00 UTC RAOBs. This synoptic regime is expected to largely remain in place for today as the trough slowly migrates southeast. At the surface, a frontolytic cold front extending from the upper OH River Valley into the lower MS River Valley and TX Gulf Coast will continue to push east/southeast, resulting in largely offshore flow along much of the central Gulf Coast by late this afternoon. Before this occurs, weak ascent along the boundary, coupled with very modest - but sufficient - buoyancy ahead of the front (sampled best by the 00 UTC LCH sounding), should support isolated thunderstorms from the start of the period (12 UTC) through around 16-18 UTC. Further west, cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of the upper low will overspread the lower CO Valley through the day. A modest influx of Pacific moisture coupled with steepening lapse rates and weak ascent will promote sporadic thunderstorm development through much of the day and possibly into the overnight hours. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight hours along the southern CA coast and across parts of the south-central U.S. An upper wave evident in water-vapor imagery along the SoCal coast will gradually shift east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley through 12 UTC Monday. Cold temperatures aloft within the upper trough axis, combined with broad-scale ascent, will continue to support adequate buoyancy for isolated, transient thunderstorms. Further east, weak ascent along a diffuse frontal zone and within the right-entrance of an upper-level jet will continue to promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the upper TX coast into the lower MS River Valley and parts of western AL. 00 UTC soundings from SHV and LCH sampled buoyancy that is sufficient for deep convection (MUCAPE between 100-200 J/kg), but likely inadequate to pose a robust severe threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight hours along the southern CA coast and across parts of the south-central U.S. An upper wave evident in water-vapor imagery along the SoCal coast will gradually shift east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley through 12 UTC Monday. Cold temperatures aloft within the upper trough axis, combined with broad-scale ascent, will continue to support adequate buoyancy for isolated, transient thunderstorms. Further east, weak ascent along a diffuse frontal zone and within the right-entrance of an upper-level jet will continue to promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the upper TX coast into the lower MS River Valley and parts of western AL. 00 UTC soundings from SHV and LCH sampled buoyancy that is sufficient for deep convection (MUCAPE between 100-200 J/kg), but likely inadequate to pose a robust severe threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0629 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue through the overnight hours along the southern CA coast and across parts of the south-central U.S. An upper wave evident in water-vapor imagery along the SoCal coast will gradually shift east/southeast towards the lower CO River Valley through 12 UTC Monday. Cold temperatures aloft within the upper trough axis, combined with broad-scale ascent, will continue to support adequate buoyancy for isolated, transient thunderstorms. Further east, weak ascent along a diffuse frontal zone and within the right-entrance of an upper-level jet will continue to promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms from the upper TX coast into the lower MS River Valley and parts of western AL. 00 UTC soundings from SHV and LCH sampled buoyancy that is sufficient for deep convection (MUCAPE between 100-200 J/kg), but likely inadequate to pose a robust severe threat. ..Moore.. 01/27/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Jan 26 22:17:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jan 26 22:17:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z An upper-level low will linger across the western US through D5/Thursday, bringing breezy conditions but also increasing potential for precipitation. On D3/Tuesday across central South Dakota and Nebraska, breezy and dry conditions will be possible as the Great Lakes trough deepens with enhanced northwesterly flow aloft moving out of Canada. Though downslope warming and drying are forecast, latest guidance in this region suggests fuels are marginal. Later in the period next weekend, the upper-level low across the western US will eject into the Plains, bringing potential for windy/dry conditions across portions of the High Plains and Southern Plains. This may favor periods of elevated fire-weather conditions, particularly across southwestern and western Texas where freeze cured grasses may support risk for fire spread. Elsewhere, marginal fuels and chances for additional precipitation should limit the potential for critical conditions. ..Thornton.. 01/26/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected. See the prior forecast for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected. See the prior forecast for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0156 PM CST Sun Jan 26 2025 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. Scattered elevated thunderstorms ongoing over the ArkLaTex should continue northeastward within the pronounced low-level warm advection regime through tonight. Additional storm development and lightning potential, albeit lower probability, will remain possible this evening over eastern TX with weak low and mid-level ascent continuing for another few hours. Likewise, isolated lightning flashes will remain possible over parts of the central Valley and coastal CA beneath a deep upper low. Severe storms are not expected. See the prior forecast for more info. ..Lyons.. 01/26/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Jan 26 2025/ ...Synopsis... The latest satellite and observational data show a stacked cyclone over central CA, which is poised to continue drifting southward through the remainder of the period per latest guidance consensus. Scant buoyancy, driven by cooler temperatures aloft within the stacked cyclone core, will foster the potential for a couple of lightning flashes across central into southern CA today into tonight. Meanwhile, low-level warm-air and moisture advection are in progress across portions of eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley, with scattered thunderstorm development already underway. Latest thinking is that persistent warm-air advection will support an increase in thunderstorm coverage through the day across eastern TX, with a greater coverage of thunderstorms into the Lower MS Valley tonight. Across eastern TX this afternoon, elevated buoyancy, driven by an 8+ C/km mid-level lapse rate plume, may contribute to small hail potential with some of the stronger, more persistent updrafts. Read more