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Cattle ranchers in the Arizona strip, the land in Arizona north of the Colorado River, do not have enough feed for their cattle due to the lack of rain. FOX 13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), Jan 31, 2025

A farmer and rancher near Hurricane has not yet planted his alfalfa, hay, wheat and oats because the ground was too dry. The crops are usually planted in January. No significant rain has fallen since spring 2024. FOX 13 (Salt Lake City, Utah), Jan 31, 2025

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible tonight from parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a trough will move toward the southern part of the Eastern Seaboard. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the mid-level trough and near the surface trough this evening into tonight. Additional storms may occur near the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington ahead of a shortwave trough. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 02/01/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0654 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms will be possible tonight from parts of the Tennessee Valley to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, and along parts of the West Coast. No severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough will move through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys this evening. At the surface, a trough will move toward the southern part of the Eastern Seaboard. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the mid-level trough and near the surface trough this evening into tonight. Additional storms may occur near the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington ahead of a shortwave trough. No severe threat is expected through tonight across the continental U.S. ..Broyles.. 02/01/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Jan 31 23:59:01 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Jan 31 23:59:01 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Upper-level flow will be primarily zonal across the U.S. to begin the extended period. Early next week, ridging aloft will increase across much of the U.S. east of the Divide ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. Broad but moderate to strong cyclonic flow will then develop across the West into the Plains. Embedded shortwave troughs are also expected within the broader flow, but predictability of those features is low. At the surface, lee troughing in the southern High Plains will be a steady feature. Fuels will continue to dry in those areas under this regime. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions are possible early to mid next week with the lee troughing expected. At present, wind speeds for much of that period appear too low to warrant any critical probabilities. By Wednesday into Thursday, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a deeper lee trough/low is possible in the region. Though the intensity of the surface winds will depend on the strength/timing of any shortwave trough feature, this pattern will favor an increase in dry and windy conditions in areas that will have increasing dry fuels by this point in time. The probability of critical fire weather is 40% on Wednesday afternoon. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Upper-level flow will be primarily zonal across the U.S. to begin the extended period. Early next week, ridging aloft will increase across much of the U.S. east of the Divide ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. Broad but moderate to strong cyclonic flow will then develop across the West into the Plains. Embedded shortwave troughs are also expected within the broader flow, but predictability of those features is low. At the surface, lee troughing in the southern High Plains will be a steady feature. Fuels will continue to dry in those areas under this regime. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions are possible early to mid next week with the lee troughing expected. At present, wind speeds for much of that period appear too low to warrant any critical probabilities. By Wednesday into Thursday, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a deeper lee trough/low is possible in the region. Though the intensity of the surface winds will depend on the strength/timing of any shortwave trough feature, this pattern will favor an increase in dry and windy conditions in areas that will have increasing dry fuels by this point in time. The probability of critical fire weather is 40% on Wednesday afternoon. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 081200Z Upper-level flow will be primarily zonal across the U.S. to begin the extended period. Early next week, ridging aloft will increase across much of the U.S. east of the Divide ahead of a trough approaching the West Coast. Broad but moderate to strong cyclonic flow will then develop across the West into the Plains. Embedded shortwave troughs are also expected within the broader flow, but predictability of those features is low. At the surface, lee troughing in the southern High Plains will be a steady feature. Fuels will continue to dry in those areas under this regime. ...Southern High Plains... At least modestly dry and windy conditions are possible early to mid next week with the lee troughing expected. At present, wind speeds for much of that period appear too low to warrant any critical probabilities. By Wednesday into Thursday, deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest a deeper lee trough/low is possible in the region. Though the intensity of the surface winds will depend on the strength/timing of any shortwave trough feature, this pattern will favor an increase in dry and windy conditions in areas that will have increasing dry fuels by this point in time. The probability of critical fire weather is 40% on Wednesday afternoon. ..Wendt.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected across the United States through tonight. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of the Marginal risk area over the central Florida Panhandle and vicinity. Recent radar, satellite, and lightning trends all indicate weakening thunderstorms along the eastward-moving front, owing to very marginal lapse rates/instability and limited deeper-layer forcing for ascent. While strong background flow and earlier heating could still support locally strong gusts with showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon, the potential for organized severe storms appears low. For details on any remaining low-end/isolated risk for strong convective gusts, reference MCD #61. ..Weinman.. 01/31/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1006 AM CST Fri Jan 31 2025/ ...Southeast AL/Southwest GA/FL Panhandle... A large, positively tilted upper trough/low is over the Mid MS Valley today, with an associated surface cold front sweeping eastward across AL/GA/FL. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front have weakened considerably from yesterday, limiting the northward transport of Gulf moisture. Dewpoints in the 50s and lower 60s are common ahead of the front, but this only results in MUCAPE values less than 250 J/kg. One small area of slightly greater instability may occur later this afternoon over the central FL Panhandle and vicinity where visible satellite imagery shows broken clouds and more heating potential. This area remains in the MRGL risk. Later tonight, the cold front will sweep eastward across GA and the Carolinas. A combination of weak instability and limited forcing in the warm sector suggests any deep convection that can form will be along, and more likely behind, the front. Read more

MD 0061 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FL PANHANDLE...SOUTHEAST AL...SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0061 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Areas affected...FL Panhandle...southeast AL...southwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 311845Z - 312115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A low-topped convective band is moving eastward across parts of southeast AL and the FL Panhandle early this afternoon, with somewhat deeper convection noted near the immediate coast and just offshore. With only weak midlevel lapse rates in place and stronger large-scale ascent expected to remain generally displaced north of the richer low-level moisture, convection may tend to remain disorganized. However, modest diurnal heating of a relatively moist airmass has resulted in MLCAPE increasing into the 250-500 J/kg range downstream of ongoing convection, and effective shear (as depicted on the KEVX VWP) remains rather strong. Modest intensification remains possible with time this afternoon, and localized strong/damaging gusts cannot be ruled out in areas where relatively stronger heating and steepening of low-level lapse rates can continue. ..Dean/Hart.. 01/31/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30388674 31518579 31958527 31868470 31348444 30828465 30478489 30078512 29628522 29758540 30048578 30148622 30388674 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 PM CST Fri Jan 31 2025 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm activity is forecast to be minimal across the U.S. on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A low-amplitude westerly upper flow regime will persist across the CONUS on Sunday. Surface low pressure over the central Plains will result in some modest baroclinicity across the southern Plains. The resulting southerly low-level flow will transport modest Gulf moisture northward across TX, but deeper moisture will remain confined to the coast. Further north, a cold front will develop south across the northern Intermountain region and northern Plains. Cold Arctic air and strong surface high pressure will build south in the wake of the front. Given poor boundary-layer moisture and little upper-level support, thunderstorm potential appears low. ..Leitman.. 01/31/2025 Read more