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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more

MD 0734 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE MS/AL GULF COAST
Mesoscale Discussion 0734 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Areas affected...the MS/AL Gulf Coast Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071508Z - 071645Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe wind gusts are possible along the MS/AL Gulf Coast this morning. DISCUSSION...A bowing line segment developed across southeastern Louisiana this morning with measured wind gusts of 50 knots at KNEW and 51 knots at KNBG. As this line segment moves along the coast, strong to isolated severe wind gusts are possible along the immediate coastal areas. However, expect this line of storms to slowly weaken as it moves into decreasing instability with eastward extent. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29808956 29918960 30178966 30438962 30498929 30598823 30558787 30378757 30258759 30078794 29988855 29808956 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks to the Gulf Coast. ...Coastal/south-central Texas to middle Gulf Coast... A cluster of previously severe storms (overnight) across Deep South Texas is now over the western Gulf, with substantial effective-boundary-reinforcing elevated convection spanning the upper Texas coast to coastal Louisiana and the Mobile Bay vicinity. The more intense convection should focus offshore today, but areas along the immediate coast, such as southern Louisiana, may have some lingering severe risk pending the disposition of existing early day outflow and convection, ahead of what will likely be an upscale-growing MCS over the northwest to north-central Gulf. Farther to the west, considerable uncertainty exists with later-day deep convective potential across south-central/southeast Texas given the impacts of the overnight storms, with ramifications on lapse rates, source region moisture etc., even with a nearly full diurnal cycle for potential air mass adjustments/recovery. These thermodynamic trends are also in the context of weak height rises and larger-scale subsidence regionally. While some severe storms could develop later today into peak heating under a more optimistic airmass-recovery scenario, any such severe potential would likely remain isolated and marginal overall. ...Southern Plains to Ozarks/Ark-La-Tex.. The mid/upper-level low will progress eastward from the south-central Plains toward the Ozarks/Lower Missouri Valley by tonight, accompanied by a 50+ kt belt of west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. Only a subtle surface low/features and weak convergence will exist, but weak inhibition is expected by afternoon as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (-13C to -18C at 500mb), with upwards of 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible. Some of the semi-lower-topped storms could be strong or locally severe with hail and wind gusts possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening, and funnel/brief tornado potential might also diurnally exist given ambient vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/07/2025 Read more

MD 0733 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 237... FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0733 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Areas affected...Deep South Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237... Valid 070900Z - 071030Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 237 continues. SUMMARY...Some increase in severe-wind potential is possible before storms move offshore, in addition to a continued large hail threat. DISCUSSION...A small but occasionally intense thunderstorm complex has evolved across Deep South TX early this morning. Earlier 00Z soundings from CRP and BRO depicted very rich low-level moisture (with 1 km mean mixing ratios greater than 18 g/kg) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates, resulting in strong instability. Strong deep-layer shear and elongated hodographs were also observed with these soundings, which aided in earlier intense supercell development that resulted in giant hail in San Ygnacio, TX. Some recent upscale growth has been noted, with smaller cells forming within a low-level warm advection regime to the east of the initial supercell cluster. It remains uncertain if substantial cold pool development can occur prior to storms moving offshore, but some increase in the severe-wind threat is possible, in addition to a continued hail threat. If a more organized MCS does develop, there will likely be some tendency for it to propagate east-northeast near an outflow-influenced surface front, within the buoyancy gradient and along the northern periphery of warmer 700 mb temperatures and stronger capping. ..Dean.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 27819915 28689647 28809605 28199578 27429653 26999697 26379734 26359840 26449883 26559915 26869899 27239881 27499906 27819915 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more