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MD 0735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0735 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Areas affected...northern parts of the Florida Peninsula into extreme southeast Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071822Z - 071945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A strong wind gust or instance of hail cannot be ruled out with any of the stronger storms. The severe threat should be quite isolated at best, precluding a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop and/or intensify amid a destabilizing airmass, with surface temperatures warming to over 90 F, boosting MLCAPE to over 500 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates are quite poor, and regional VADS depict short hodographs, which indicate mediocre vertical wind shear. As such, the severe threat should remain quite sparse, with no WW issuance expected. Still, strong enough surface heating and associated low-level lapse rates may foster organized strong thunderstorms that may produce a strong wind gust or brief instance of hail. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28198195 28628226 29478244 30558227 30888205 30928163 30488141 29858135 29208100 28808082 28408098 28148120 28058146 28198195 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1135 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PORTIONS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks, the central Gulf Coast, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. ..Gleason/Squitieri.. 05/07/2025 Read more