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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0736 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Areas affected...Central to eastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072345Z - 080115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Shallow convection developing across central to eastern Oklahoma will be capable of producing hail up to severe limits. This threat is expected to remain fairly isolated and short-lived; watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Weak thunderstorms have been percolating across central/northern OK over the past few hours, but have recently experienced a slight uptick in intensity as they migrate southeastward into a somewhat more strongly sheared environment. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates indicate that effective shear values around 35 knots are in place across eastern OK, which may allow for sufficient storm organization to produce hail stones of around one inch. The thermodynamic environment is largely being driven by diurnally-driven surface temperatures in the 70s beneath cold temperatures aloft associated with an upper low over the region. MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg will likely be the buoyancy zenith with a gradual reduction in MLCAPE expected with the onset of the early evening transition in the next 1-2 hours. Consequently, the overall severe threat is expected to remain relatively localized and short-lived, and will not require watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35919845 36019818 36619643 36759588 36689548 36429509 36189483 35849461 35459446 34979456 34729491 34719563 35379835 35629850 35919845 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An appreciable severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over eastern Kansas, with a long fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening from the vicinity of the low southeastward into part of the mid Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Additional storms will be possible this evening in parts of the Desert Southwest and from the central Rockies into the central High Plains. Organized severe convection is not expected through daybreak Thursday morning. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An appreciable severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over eastern Kansas, with a long fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening from the vicinity of the low southeastward into part of the mid Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Additional storms will be possible this evening in parts of the Desert Southwest and from the central Rockies into the central High Plains. Organized severe convection is not expected through daybreak Thursday morning. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An appreciable severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over eastern Kansas, with a long fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening from the vicinity of the low southeastward into part of the mid Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Additional storms will be possible this evening in parts of the Desert Southwest and from the central Rockies into the central High Plains. Organized severe convection is not expected through daybreak Thursday morning. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An appreciable severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over eastern Kansas, with a long fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening from the vicinity of the low southeastward into part of the mid Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Additional storms will be possible this evening in parts of the Desert Southwest and from the central Rockies into the central High Plains. Organized severe convection is not expected through daybreak Thursday morning. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... An appreciable severe threat is not expected across the continental United States through daybreak on Thursday. ...DISCUSSION... Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over eastern Kansas, with a long fetch of west-southwesterly flow from the southern Plains to the East Coast. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible this evening from the vicinity of the low southeastward into part of the mid Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Additional storms will be possible this evening in parts of the Desert Southwest and from the central Rockies into the central High Plains. Organized severe convection is not expected through daybreak Thursday morning. ..Broyles.. 05/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed May 7 23:48:01 UTC 2025.

MD 0736 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL TO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0736 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0645 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Areas affected...Central to eastern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072345Z - 080115Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Shallow convection developing across central to eastern Oklahoma will be capable of producing hail up to severe limits. This threat is expected to remain fairly isolated and short-lived; watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Weak thunderstorms have been percolating across central/northern OK over the past few hours, but have recently experienced a slight uptick in intensity as they migrate southeastward into a somewhat more strongly sheared environment. Recent RAP mesoanalysis estimates indicate that effective shear values around 35 knots are in place across eastern OK, which may allow for sufficient storm organization to produce hail stones of around one inch. The thermodynamic environment is largely being driven by diurnally-driven surface temperatures in the 70s beneath cold temperatures aloft associated with an upper low over the region. MLCAPE values of around 500 J/kg will likely be the buoyancy zenith with a gradual reduction in MLCAPE expected with the onset of the early evening transition in the next 1-2 hours. Consequently, the overall severe threat is expected to remain relatively localized and short-lived, and will not require watch issuance. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN... LAT...LON 35919845 36019818 36619643 36759588 36689548 36429509 36189483 35849461 35459446 34979456 34729491 34719563 35379835 35629850 35919845 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

Rain fell over most Coastal Bend counties, with reports ranging from trace amounts up to 3 inches. Drying conditions with warming temperatures and windy days continued to deplete topsoil moisture. Farmers with irrigation began irrigating corn last week. Corn was beginning to silk, and most fields looked good. Weeds became an issue with recent rains, and producers were working to get them under control. Pecan producers were scouting for pecan nut casebearer eggs, and some were applying insecticide accordingly. The first hay cutting was complete, but growth for the next cutting was slowed by limited rainfall. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to improve, with ample high-quality forage available on most operations, though areas that received little rain remained in poorer condition. Livestock were gaining body condition, and calves were gaining well. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), May 6, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed May 7 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more