Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Wednesday through D6/Monday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Late in period D6/Monday into D7/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Less precipitation is expected across portions of Arizona. Fuels in both of these regions are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. Some overlap of windy/dry conditions may extend into portions of western New Mexico as well. For now, model spread leads to low confidence in including areas. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OKLAHOMA INTO WESTERN ARKANSAS AND THE OZARKS...AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA INTO PARTS OF FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks, and separately over southeast Georgia into portions of Florida. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was the removal of severe-thunderstorm probabilities over the central Gulf Coast -- where a remnant MCS has moved offshore. ..Weinman.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Texas to the Central Gulf Coast... Extensive convection and related outflow has shunted greater low-level moisture and an effective front off most of the TX Coast this morning. Ongoing clusters/supercells just south of the LA Coast are generally expected to remain offshore this afternoon as they track eastward along/near the surface boundary. A small and somewhat separate cluster with a history of producing measured severe winds near New Orleans should track along/near the MS/AL Coast over the next few hours while weakening, as it will remain north of the outflow boundary/front. Even so, modest heating of a residually moist low-level airmass may support weak MUCAPE and an isolated threat for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado with this activity. The potential for renewed convective development this afternoon across TX appears low, as the upper low over OK moves northeastward towards the Ozarks. Neutral to weakly rising mid-level heights suggest nebulous large-scale forcing at best, and perhaps some subsidence through the day. While a strong thunderstorm or two may still develop across south-central TX and vicinity near the stalled front, the overall severe potential appears too low/conditional to maintain even Marginal Risk caliber severe probabilities with this update. ...Central/Eastern Oklahoma into Western Arkansas... A mid/upper-level low over KS/OK will progress eastward to the Ozarks/Lower MO Valley by tonight, accompanied by a belt of enhanced west-southwesterly mid-level winds on its southern periphery. A weak surface low and modest low-level convergence will exist this afternoon across central/eastern OK. But, weak instability is still expected to develop as cloud breaks occur under the mid-level cool pocket (around -13 to -18 C at 500mb), with around 500-800 J/kg MLCAPE plausible with peak afternoon heating. Some of the lower-topped convection that develops could become strong to locally severe with hail possible from mid/late afternoon into this evening. Brief funnel/tornado potential may also diurnally exist given ambient low-level vorticity/steep lapse rates in proximity to the upper low. This activity is expected to quickly weaken with eastward extent this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Florida/Coastal Georgia... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and early evening along and south of a front draped across coastal/southeast GA into parts of FL. Moderate instability and sufficient deep-layer shear should be present across these regions to support some updraft organization. Occasional severe hail and damaging winds may occur with the strongest cores. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more