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MD 0737 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN AR
Mesoscale Discussion 0737 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern AR Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080622Z - 080745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A threat for isolated hail and damaging wind may persist overnight. DISCUSSION...A small storm cluster with a history of producing isolated hail and wind damage has persisted across AR late tonight, with evolution into primarily a single supercell along a propagating outflow. This cluster appears to be located in the vicinity of a weak baroclinic zone, with slightly warmer temperatures and greater instability noted downstream into east-central AR. Deep-layer flow/shear is sufficient for storm organization, downstream of a midlevel cyclone centered over southeast KS. Ascent attendant to the midlevel cyclone and modestly favorable downstream instability could support maintenance of the ongoing small cluster through part of the overnight, with a continued threat of localized hail and damaging gusts. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 34969199 35139209 35309208 35539188 35739166 35719067 35659016 35349020 35069032 34889052 34899086 34869107 34879140 34889162 34969199 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States and southern Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A stronger upper-level trough in the Northeast will shear apart the elongated trough structure that has been present for the last few days in the East. A cutoff low will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley region. A diffuse surface cold front will be the primary focus for convection along with additional potential along the Gulf/Atlantic sea breeze boundaries in Florida. A belt of stronger mid-level winds near the Gulf/Atlantic coasts will promote modest storm organization. ...Southeast Virginia into North Carolina... Mid-level ascent will be greater in these areas. With a weak surface low and front moving through, there could be a greater concentration of storms than farther south. Models are consistent with at least modest early day precipitation occurring along with lingering cloud cover. Depending on afternoon destabilization, there could be a locally greater corridor of wind/hail potential. ...Southeast into eastern Florida Peninsula... Surface heating near a diffuse surface boundary (Atlantic sea breeze in Florida) will promote 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A belt of stronger mid-level winds across these areas will support at least isolated organized storms. Damaging winds will be possible and modest mid-level lapse rates will support some threat for large hail as well. ...Florida Panhandle... Depending on the track of an MCV within the Gulf, surface heating and the Gulf breeze boundary will be potential triggers for convection during the afternoon. Shear will be modest (25-30 kts), but a few stronger storms may produce damaging winds or marginally severe hail. Should the MCV track closer to the shore, surface heating would be more limited, but isolated wind damage could occur with any linear segments associated with the MCV. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States and southern Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A stronger upper-level trough in the Northeast will shear apart the elongated trough structure that has been present for the last few days in the East. A cutoff low will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley region. A diffuse surface cold front will be the primary focus for convection along with additional potential along the Gulf/Atlantic sea breeze boundaries in Florida. A belt of stronger mid-level winds near the Gulf/Atlantic coasts will promote modest storm organization. ...Southeast Virginia into North Carolina... Mid-level ascent will be greater in these areas. With a weak surface low and front moving through, there could be a greater concentration of storms than farther south. Models are consistent with at least modest early day precipitation occurring along with lingering cloud cover. Depending on afternoon destabilization, there could be a locally greater corridor of wind/hail potential. ...Southeast into eastern Florida Peninsula... Surface heating near a diffuse surface boundary (Atlantic sea breeze in Florida) will promote 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A belt of stronger mid-level winds across these areas will support at least isolated organized storms. Damaging winds will be possible and modest mid-level lapse rates will support some threat for large hail as well. ...Florida Panhandle... Depending on the track of an MCV within the Gulf, surface heating and the Gulf breeze boundary will be potential triggers for convection during the afternoon. Shear will be modest (25-30 kts), but a few stronger storms may produce damaging winds or marginally severe hail. Should the MCV track closer to the shore, surface heating would be more limited, but isolated wind damage could occur with any linear segments associated with the MCV. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States and southern Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A stronger upper-level trough in the Northeast will shear apart the elongated trough structure that has been present for the last few days in the East. A cutoff low will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley region. A diffuse surface cold front will be the primary focus for convection along with additional potential along the Gulf/Atlantic sea breeze boundaries in Florida. A belt of stronger mid-level winds near the Gulf/Atlantic coasts will promote modest storm organization. ...Southeast Virginia into North Carolina... Mid-level ascent will be greater in these areas. With a weak surface low and front moving through, there could be a greater concentration of storms than farther south. Models are consistent with at least modest early day precipitation occurring along with lingering cloud cover. Depending on afternoon destabilization, there could be a locally greater corridor of wind/hail potential. ...Southeast into eastern Florida Peninsula... Surface heating near a diffuse surface boundary (Atlantic sea breeze in Florida) will promote 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A belt of stronger mid-level winds across these areas will support at least isolated organized storms. Damaging winds will be possible and modest mid-level lapse rates will support some threat for large hail as well. ...Florida Panhandle... Depending on the track of an MCV within the Gulf, surface heating and the Gulf breeze boundary will be potential triggers for convection during the afternoon. Shear will be modest (25-30 kts), but a few stronger storms may produce damaging winds or marginally severe hail. Should the MCV track closer to the shore, surface heating would be more limited, but isolated wind damage could occur with any linear segments associated with the MCV. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States and southern Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A stronger upper-level trough in the Northeast will shear apart the elongated trough structure that has been present for the last few days in the East. A cutoff low will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley region. A diffuse surface cold front will be the primary focus for convection along with additional potential along the Gulf/Atlantic sea breeze boundaries in Florida. A belt of stronger mid-level winds near the Gulf/Atlantic coasts will promote modest storm organization. ...Southeast Virginia into North Carolina... Mid-level ascent will be greater in these areas. With a weak surface low and front moving through, there could be a greater concentration of storms than farther south. Models are consistent with at least modest early day precipitation occurring along with lingering cloud cover. Depending on afternoon destabilization, there could be a locally greater corridor of wind/hail potential. ...Southeast into eastern Florida Peninsula... Surface heating near a diffuse surface boundary (Atlantic sea breeze in Florida) will promote 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A belt of stronger mid-level winds across these areas will support at least isolated organized storms. Damaging winds will be possible and modest mid-level lapse rates will support some threat for large hail as well. ...Florida Panhandle... Depending on the track of an MCV within the Gulf, surface heating and the Gulf breeze boundary will be potential triggers for convection during the afternoon. Shear will be modest (25-30 kts), but a few stronger storms may produce damaging winds or marginally severe hail. Should the MCV track closer to the shore, surface heating would be more limited, but isolated wind damage could occur with any linear segments associated with the MCV. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, capable of damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States and southern Mid-Atlantic, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... A stronger upper-level trough in the Northeast will shear apart the elongated trough structure that has been present for the last few days in the East. A cutoff low will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley region. A diffuse surface cold front will be the primary focus for convection along with additional potential along the Gulf/Atlantic sea breeze boundaries in Florida. A belt of stronger mid-level winds near the Gulf/Atlantic coasts will promote modest storm organization. ...Southeast Virginia into North Carolina... Mid-level ascent will be greater in these areas. With a weak surface low and front moving through, there could be a greater concentration of storms than farther south. Models are consistent with at least modest early day precipitation occurring along with lingering cloud cover. Depending on afternoon destabilization, there could be a locally greater corridor of wind/hail potential. ...Southeast into eastern Florida Peninsula... Surface heating near a diffuse surface boundary (Atlantic sea breeze in Florida) will promote 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. A belt of stronger mid-level winds across these areas will support at least isolated organized storms. Damaging winds will be possible and modest mid-level lapse rates will support some threat for large hail as well. ...Florida Panhandle... Depending on the track of an MCV within the Gulf, surface heating and the Gulf breeze boundary will be potential triggers for convection during the afternoon. Shear will be modest (25-30 kts), but a few stronger storms may produce damaging winds or marginally severe hail. Should the MCV track closer to the shore, surface heating would be more limited, but isolated wind damage could occur with any linear segments associated with the MCV. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1254 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHEAST AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with severe gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the southern Appalachians, Tennessee Valley and Southeast. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible. Severe gusts and large hail will also be possible in parts of the Rio Grande Valley. ...Southern Appalachians/Tennessee Valley/Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, and an associated cold front, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today. Surface dewpoints to the south of the front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop across much of the moist airmass. A cluster of organized thunderstorms is forecast to develop in the afternoon from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, and eastward into the southern Appalachians. This large cluster will move southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. RAP forecast soundings along the zone of maximum instability have 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 45 knot range, with 850 to 500 mb lapse rates near 7 C/km. This environment will support the development of supercells with large hail, in areas where the storms can remain semi-discrete. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter will be possible with the more intense supercells. In addition, forecast soundings show very steep low-level lapse exceeding 8 C/km, which will be supportive of damaging wind gusts. Further to the south from parts of the Southeast into northern Florida, moderate instability is expected to develop during the afternoon in an airmass with surface dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. In spite of weaker large-scale ascent, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in areas that heat up the most. 0-6 km shear in the 25 to 35 knot range and steep low-level lapse rates could support a marginal threat for severe gusts and hail during the mid to late afternoon. ...Rio Grande Valley... A mid-level trough will move through northern Mexico today, as flow remains from the west across the southern Plains. Ahead of the trough, an axis of moderate instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into the Rio Grande Valley. Along much of the instability axis, forecast soundings by afternoon have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 0-3 km lapse rates near or above 8 C/km. In addition, lapse rates are steep in the mid-levels. This environment should enable supercells to develop with a potential for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe threat is expected to first develop in parts of west and southwest Texas in the early afternoon, gradually spreading southeastward into south-central and south Texas by late afternoon. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more