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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Southeast into Mid-Atlantic... By early next week, the cutoff upper low is forecast to become more progressive and move northeastward. As this occurs, convection will begin to overspread more of the Southeast into southern portions of Florida and eventually the Mid-Atlantic. At this time, the potential for several days of precipitation/cloud cover to impact surface heating does not suggest a substantive severe threat will exist. Furthermore, mid-level flow will weaken with time as the low lifts northeast. Moderate mid-level winds will remain over Florida until midweek. While Central/South Florida could see relatively higher severe potential on Tuesday into Wednesday, models still show limited destabilization on account of the uncertain surface heating described earlier. ...Northern Rockies/Plains... Strong upper-level winds will overspread the northern Rockies on Sunday. Mid-level ascent should be sufficient for potentially scattered storm development. Moisture still appears it may be limited, but some threat for severe wind gusts may accompany storms on Sunday in parts of southwest into central Montana. Uncertainty in storm intensity precludes highlights, however. As the trough continues to shift eastward, moisture return may be sufficient enough to support some potential for severe storms mid to late next week in parts of the Dakotas into Iowa/Minnesota. Aside from questions about low-level moisture, timing and structure of the trough varies in guidance and makes the coverage/intensity of storms too uncertain for highlights. ...Central/southern Plains... Model guidance continues to show the potential for a trough to impact these regions by mid/late next week. Timing and position of the stronger winds/greatest forcing continues to shift spatially, however. Given that both the GEFS/EPS ensembles show a trough in the mean next week does give some confidence in the general pattern. Available ML guidance has also picked up on the pattern shift and started to show an increased signal for severe potential. However, significant uncertainties remain. With the cutoff nature of the upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley, it is a feature that is not predictable in terms of how fast it will depart. If guidance is correct, it will move out right as the trough nears the Plains. This leaves little time for a deep moist layer to develop and move northward after a few days of offshore winds in the western Gulf. Low-level moisture forecasts ahead of the trough do show mid/upper 60s F dewpoints. That said, the moisture profile in the vertical is quite poor. It is not until next weekend that a signal for deeper moisture is evident in model guidance. Lastly, shortwave ridging will be in place ahead of the trough. Temperatures aloft do not appear likely to appreciably cool given the current forecast evolution of the trough and capping will be a concern. Trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...NORTH FLORIDA...FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... The cutoff upper low in the lower Mississippi Valley is forecast to retrograde westward on Saturday. A warm front will be roughly parallel to the Gulf Coast. Warm air advection across the warm front and subtle shortwave perturbations around the upper low will promote widespread precipitation in the central/eastern Gulf Coast regions. A trough will push into the Northwest and northern Rockies with strong mid-level winds moving into western Montana towards Sunday morning. ...Florida Panhandle...North Florida...southern Georgia... Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will persist through the day. There will be concern for cloud cover from the convection to the west and within the Gulf itself. However, a plume of steeper mid-level lapse rates will extent into parts of central/northeast Florida. Where surface heating can occur, a few strong to severe storms are possible. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats, but a tornado could occur near the warm front. Upper level winds will not be overly strong and shear will be focused from low to mid-levels. This will potentially lead to rain negatively impacting inflow of storms. ...Southwest Montana... With the approach of mid-level shortwave trough, isolated convection will likely develop within the higher terrain. Moisture will be limited, but cold temperatures aloft will promote weak MLCAPE in some areas. A few strong to near-severe gusts could occur, but storm coverage/intensity does not currently warrant probabilities. ..Wendt.. 05/08/2025 Read more