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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu May 8 17:15:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more