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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There is a chance of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in portions of southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Fuels are in or entering the spring dip in this area and could be receptive to lightning ignition. However, precipitable water values are likely to be 0.8-1" with dewpoints in the 50s, and lightning amounts could be minimal over receptive fuels. Given the potential of hot, dry, and windy conditions emerging Sunday into early next week, this area will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There is a chance of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in portions of southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Fuels are in or entering the spring dip in this area and could be receptive to lightning ignition. However, precipitable water values are likely to be 0.8-1" with dewpoints in the 50s, and lightning amounts could be minimal over receptive fuels. Given the potential of hot, dry, and windy conditions emerging Sunday into early next week, this area will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There is a chance of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in portions of southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Fuels are in or entering the spring dip in this area and could be receptive to lightning ignition. However, precipitable water values are likely to be 0.8-1" with dewpoints in the 50s, and lightning amounts could be minimal over receptive fuels. Given the potential of hot, dry, and windy conditions emerging Sunday into early next week, this area will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... There is a chance of isolated mixed wet/dry thunderstorms in portions of southern Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin along/ahead of an approaching cold front. Fuels are in or entering the spring dip in this area and could be receptive to lightning ignition. However, precipitable water values are likely to be 0.8-1" with dewpoints in the 50s, and lightning amounts could be minimal over receptive fuels. Given the potential of hot, dry, and windy conditions emerging Sunday into early next week, this area will continue to be monitored. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track, and please see the previous discussion. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential appears limited for Friday across the country. The upper trough currently across the central U.S. will continue to meander east through the next 48 hours. This will bring widespread rain chances to much of the MS/OH River Valleys and the Southeast over the next two days. To the west, upper ridging will favor drier conditions, but weak low-level winds should modulate the potential for fire spread. Breezy and dry conditions may develop through the Red River Valley of the North Friday afternoon after a dry cold frontal passage, but confidence in sustained winds above elevated thresholds (15 mph) during peak heating is too low to warrant risk highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 0741 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR WESTERN AND SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0741 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...Portions of far Western and South-Central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081632Z - 081830Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of large to very large hail and severe winds possible through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity ongoing near the Trans Pecos and Davis Mountains is showing an uptick in intensity over the last 30 minutes. Additionally, cumulus development further south across the Texas Big Bend is noted on visible satellite. Further thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as a weak shortwave shifts eastward and the current activity shifts south and eastward through time. The environment across this region is characterized by MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg, steep low to mid-level lapse rates, and deep layer shear 45-50 kts. Further daytime heating and moist advection will lead to increase in instability through the afternoon. This regime will support a mix of supercells and multi-cell clusters capable of large to very large hail (some 2-2.5 in) and severe wind. There is some uncertainty on when the most robust convection will develop beyond the ongoing thunderstorms. This will be monitored for watch potential this afternoon. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF... LAT...LON 29560454 29830464 30310420 30520361 30720301 30820260 30870201 30770137 30560093 30200066 29820049 29570051 29370064 29270082 29310092 29690155 29730207 29700251 29490269 29070288 28920309 28930344 29030360 29200394 29360422 29560454 Read more

MD 0740 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
Mesoscale Discussion 0740 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...the Mid Mississippi Valley to the Southern Appalachians Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 081610Z - 081745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Widespread thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures aloft, associated with an eastward meandering upper low, will provide a focus for widespread thunderstorm development this afternoon from the Mid Mississippi Valley to the southern Appalachians. Beneath this cold air aloft, surface dewpoints are mostly in the mid 60s. This moisture will be sufficient for moderate instability this afternoon (~1500 J/kg MLCAPE) as temperatures warm into the mid 70s. A belt of moderate (40 to 45 knots) of mid-level flow exists south of this upper low and was apparent on the 12Z RAOB from KBNA and KLZK. This will provide a sufficiently sheared environment for organized storms including the potential for some rotating updrafts. This cold air aloft, yielding moderately steep mid-level lapse rates, and potential for some supercells will support a threat for large hail, some of which could be 2+ inches. A remnant EML and dry air aloft, combined with steep low-level lapse rates will also support a damaging wind threat. In addition, the expectation for many storms within the already uncapped airmass should promote storm clustering which will also increase the damaging wind threat within those corridors which clustering/bowing segments occur. The 12Z BNA RAOB showed a convective temperature of 73F which has nearly been reached as of 16Z. As such, a few storms have already developed over southeast Missouri and northwest Tennessee where cooler temperatures aloft are likely supporting a lower convective temperature. As the boundary layer warms and mid-level temperatures continue to cool, expect additional strong storm development within the next 1 to 2 hours. Multiple severe thunderstorm watches will be needed to address the threat from this development. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG... LAT...LON 35029014 36878979 37328902 37338742 37418598 37158449 37028343 36648324 36288332 35098447 35028552 34548760 34068914 34118994 35029014 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0238 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0238 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE GULF COAST STATES NORTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of damaging gusts and large hail are possible across the Southeast States. ...Synopsis... Upper troughiness will extend from the Northeast southwestward into TX, with upper lows in both locales. The low/trough over the Mid Atlantic and New England will deepen through the period, with the base of this wave sweeping across VA and NC. To the south, cool midlevel temperatures will remain over the Gulf Coast states as a positive tilt trough develops over the western Gulf. At the surface, weak low pressure will develop from the Mid Atlantic Coast to the eastern Carolinas, ahead of a cold front. Sufficient moisture will exist ahead of the front, from far southeast VA toward the Gulf Coast and FL, to support scattered strong and isolated severe daytime storms. ...Southeastern States... Although the Gulf Coast portion of the front will be weak, moderate instability due to strong heating should lead to scattered storms by late afternoon in an east-west zone from southern MS into southern GA. Forecast soundings depict weak shear but a steep lapse rate environment favorable for diurnal hail. Cold downdrafts may also yield localized wind damage. To the north, storms will increase in coverage over much of the Carolinas into far southeast VA. Instability may be a bit marginal over north parts of this region due to early development. However, pockets of air mass recovery will support scattered strong storms, aided by the upper trough influence to the north. Over FL, strong heating beneath cool midlevel temperatures (500 mb around -11 C) will result in moderate instability. Isolated storms are likely to develop over the interior Peninsula, with large hail potential. Storms should move slowly given weak flow below 500 mb, and as such, the threat should remain relatively localized. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more