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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...20Z Update... The forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made with this update. In particular, the Slight Risk along the Rio Grande Valley in Texas was expanded northward, where scattered thunderstorms are gradually intensifying in a moist/unstable air mass with 40-50 kt of effective shear. Reference MCD 745 for more details. Farther east, widely scattered thunderstorms -- including several discrete supercell structures -- are spreading eastward across Severe Thunderstorm Watches 238, 239, and 240. The only change to the outlook here was a minor expansion of the significant-hail probabilities ahead of evolving supercells. For details, reference MCDs 743 and 744. ..Weinman.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 238 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC059-069-127-151-082040- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE GALLATIN HARDIN MASSAC POPE KYC001-003-007-009-031-033-035-039-045-047-053-055-057-059-061- 075-083-085-087-099-101-105-107-139-141-143-145-149-157-169-171- 177-183-207-213-217-219-221-225-227-233-082040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BALLARD BARREN BUTLER CALDWELL CALLOWAY CARLISLE CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CRITTENDEN CUMBERLAND DAVIESS EDMONSON FULTON GRAVES GRAYSON GREEN HART HENDERSON HICKMAN HOPKINS LIVINGSTON LOGAN LYON MCCRACKEN MCLEAN MARSHALL METCALFE Read more

MD 0743 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0743 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...The western Carolinas and southern Virginia. Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 081837Z - 082000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Storms developing over the mountains will eventually become severe with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite shows some deeper convection developing along/near the crest of the Appalachians. As low-level moisture continues to advect north and the boundary layer heats up, instability will increase. This should permit storms to strengthen further and move off of the terrain. Effective shear around 40 knots (per SPC mesoanalysis) and 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will support the potential for organized storms, including supercells. Expect a more discrete mode with a hail threat initially before storms likely congeal into one or more clusters with an increasing damaging wind threat late this afternoon and into the evening. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be needed by mid-afternoon to address this evolving threat. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP... LAT...LON 34178213 34688330 35308347 35728307 36138197 36298167 36478155 36998106 37107967 36857882 36007896 34837967 34268124 34278133 34178213 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0241 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0241 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0241 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0241 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0240 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0240 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0240 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0742 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 0742 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...northern Florida...southeastern Georgia...far southern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081729Z - 081930Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Hail and damaging wind threat may increase through the afternoon as thunderstorms develop along the sea breeze. DISCUSSION...The air mass across southeastern Georgia and southern South Carolina has warmed and destabilized through the morning and early afternoon, with temperatures now in the 80s. Thunderstorms have developed across southern South Carolina along a southward moving remnant outflow boundary. Additional thunderstorm development is expected along the sea breeze boundary through the afternoon. Deep layer shear will see some increase to around 30-40 kts through the afternoon, with increasing westerly flow aloft. A plume of steep lapse rates is in place across this region, owing to cooling temperature aloft. Largely straight hodographs and moderate to strong instability will support risk for large hail and damaging wind with thunderstorm development. This area will be monitored for possible watch issuance by mid to late afternoon. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC... LAT...LON 31398266 31538266 32008247 32488220 32528154 32338107 32008087 31388132 30418141 30068125 29848129 29858167 30058214 30528262 31398266 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0239 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0239 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0239 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0130 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible in parts of northern Florida and southern Georgia on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper ridge will shift into the Plains on Saturday, as a compact shortwave trough exits the Northeast. Beneath the building ridge, an upper low will meander about the Sabine/lower MS Valleys, providing cool air aloft. At the surface, high pressure will stretch from James Bay into the Southern Plains, with another ridge from the Carolinas into the mid MS Valley. An old front will stall roughly from far southern AL and GA into northern FL, with northerly winds across much of the western Gulf. ...Northern FL into southern GA... Storms will likely be ongoing near or just south of the northern Gulf Coast for much of the day. Some of this activity may affect parts of the coastal FL Panhandle with heavy rain and locally strong wind gusts. To the east, heating over parts of FL, and perhaps far southern GA, will contribute to around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE, resulting in an uncapped air mass. Convergence near the front as well as weak warm advection from the south will lead to scattered storms. Shear will not be particularly strong, but the strongest initial cores may produce hail as temperatures aloft will be cool. Otherwise, clusters of storms or outflows could locally cause wind damage. ..Jewell.. 05/08/2025 Read more