Aggregator

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 238 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MKL TO 20 ENE MKL TO 40 WSW BNA TO 35 SSE BWG TO 25 ENE BWG TO 55 W LOZ. ..HART..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-009-053-057-169-171-207-090040- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR BARREN CLINTON CUMBERLAND METCALFE MONROE RUSSELL MSC003-009-057-081-115-117-139-141-145-090040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION TNC003-015-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-049-055-061-071-077-081- 087-099-101-109-111-117-119-133-135-137-141-149-159-165-169-175- 177-181-185-187-189-090040- TN Read more

WW 238 SEVERE TSTM KY TN 081725Z - 090100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 238 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Central Kentucky Western and Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Multiple supercells and thunderstorm clusters are expected to develop and spread generally eastward this afternoon and evening. Both large hail generally 1-2 inches in diameter and damaging winds will be a threat with this activity. Peak gusts could reach up to 60-70 mph if any thunderstorms can form. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles north of Jackson TN to 40 miles north of Crossville TN. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0241 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W DRT TO 30 SSW SAT. ..LYONS..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...EWX...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 241 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC061-127-163-215-247-283-323-427-479-505-507-090040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAMERON DIMMIT FRIO HIDALGO JIM HOGG LA SALLE MAVERICK STARR WEBB ZAPATA ZAVALA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 241 SEVERE TSTM TX 081950Z - 090400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 241 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 250 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South-Central into Deep South Texas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 250 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Isolated significant damaging wind gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms will pose a threat for mainly large hail up to 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter as they move slowly east-southeastward this afternoon and evening. Some threat for severe winds of 60-75 mph may also exist with any clusters that evolve. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles west northwest of Del Rio TX to 45 miles east of Laredo TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238...WW 239...WW 240... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Gleason Read more

The updated 2025 calendar year runoff forecast for the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City, Iowa, continued to be below average. April runoff in the Missouri River Basin above Sioux City was 1.4 million acre-feet, 48% of average. The 2025 calendar year runoff forecast above Sioux City is 20.0 MAF, 78% of average. The runoff forecast is based on current soil moisture conditions, mountain snowpack, and long-term precipitation and temperature outlooks. Gavins Point Dam releases will continue to provide navigation flow support at 4,000 cfs below full service for the first half of the navigation season through June 30. The six mainstem power plants generated 727 million kWh of electricity in April. Typical energy generation in April is 695 million kWh. Forecast generation for 2025 is 8.6 billion kWh compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh. US Army Corps of Engineers Northwestern Division, May 8, 2025

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu May 8 22:15:05 UTC 2025.

WW 0242 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 242 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...FFC...GSP...RAH...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 242 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS GAC011-015-047-055-057-083-085-105-111-115-117-119-123-129-137- 139-147-187-213-227-241-257-281-291-295-311-313-082340- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BANKS BARTOW CATOOSA CHATTOOGA CHEROKEE DADE DAWSON ELBERT FANNIN FLOYD FORSYTH FRANKLIN GILMER GORDON HABERSHAM HALL HART LUMPKIN MURRAY PICKENS RABUN STEPHENS TOWNS UNION WALKER WHITE WHITFIELD NCC001-003-005-007-009-011-021-023-025-027-033-035-037-045-051- 057-059-067-071-075-081-085-087-089-093-097-099-105-109-111-113- 115-119-121-123-125-135-145-149-151-153-157-159-161-165-167-169- 171-173-175-179-189-193-197-199-082340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALAMANCE ALEXANDER ALLEGHANY Read more

MD 0746 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 238...239...240... FOR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY VICINITY
Mesoscale Discussion 0746 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...the Tennessee Valley Vicinity Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238...239...240... Valid 082043Z - 082215Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 238, 239, 240 continues. SUMMARY...The ongoing large hail/damaging wind threat will continue through the late afternoon and into the evening. DISCUSSION...A broad region of moderate instability and moderate shear is present from central Kentucky southward into northeast Mississippi to the Appalachians. Within this area, multiple supercells have developed with reports of 1 to 2 inch hail. The environment across the region remains favorable through the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening. Therefore, ongoing supercells will likely continue with additional development also possible. The threat has been mostly hail thus far given the more discrete mode. However, as storms coverage increases, expect clusters and potential bowing line segments to develop. This would result in a greater damaging wind threat this evening. ..Bentley.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN... PAH...MEG...JAN... LAT...LON 37218873 37548694 37238374 36678264 35018359 33768650 33308881 33258949 33438960 35048899 37218873 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0240 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 240 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...JKL...MRX...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 240 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC013-025-051-071-095-109-119-121-125-129-131-133-147-189-193- 195-199-203-231-235-082340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BELL BREATHITT CLAY FLOYD HARLAN JACKSON KNOTT KNOX LAUREL LEE LESLIE LETCHER MCCREARY OWSLEY PERRY PIKE PULASKI ROCKCASTLE WAYNE WHITLEY NCC039-043-082340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEROKEE CLAY TNC001-007-009-011-013-019-025-029-057-059-063-065-067-073-089- 091-093-105-107-115-121-123-129-139-143-145-151-153-155-163-171- 173-179-082340- Read more

WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 239 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 239 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-019-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-079-083-089- 093-095-103-115-127-133-082340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CHEROKEE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN ST. CLAIR WALKER WINSTON TNC051-103-127-082340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN LINCOLN MOORE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0239 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 239 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..HART..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...BMX...HUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 239 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC009-019-033-043-049-055-057-059-071-073-075-077-079-083-089- 093-095-103-115-127-133-082340- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLOUNT CHEROKEE COLBERT CULLMAN DEKALB ETOWAH FAYETTE FRANKLIN JACKSON JEFFERSON LAMAR LAUDERDALE LAWRENCE LIMESTONE MADISON MARION MARSHALL MORGAN ST. CLAIR WALKER WINSTON TNC051-103-127-082340- TN . TENNESSEE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRANKLIN LINCOLN MOORE THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 239 SEVERE TSTM AL TN 081900Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 239 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 200 PM CDT Thu May 8 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern and Central Alabama Southern Middle Tennessee * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to develop eastward from northeast Mississippi into parts of northern/central Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this afternoon and evening. Supercells will pose a threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Any clusters that can form may also pose some risk for damaging winds up to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 55 miles southwest of Muscle Shoals AL to 55 miles north northeast of Gadsden AL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 238... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0238 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 238 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S MKL TO 55 NE MKL TO 20 ESE OWB. ..HART..05/08/25 ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...OHX...MEG... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 238 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KYC001-003-009-031-045-047-053-057-061-085-087-099-141-169-171- 177-183-207-213-217-219-227-082340- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAIR ALLEN BARREN BUTLER CASEY CHRISTIAN CLINTON CUMBERLAND EDMONSON GRAYSON GREEN HART LOGAN METCALFE MONROE MUHLENBERG OHIO RUSSELL SIMPSON TAYLOR TODD WARREN MSC003-009-057-081-115-117-139-141-145-082340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALCORN BENTON ITAWAMBA LEE PONTOTOC PRENTISS TIPPAH TISHOMINGO UNION Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day 3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow, especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida and the Deep South through the Carolinas. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels entering or already in there spring dip. There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions increase. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day 3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow, especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida and the Deep South through the Carolinas. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels entering or already in there spring dip. There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions increase. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day 3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow, especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida and the Deep South through the Carolinas. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels entering or already in there spring dip. There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions increase. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day 3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow, especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida and the Deep South through the Carolinas. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels entering or already in there spring dip. There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions increase. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day 3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow, especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida and the Deep South through the Carolinas. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels entering or already in there spring dip. There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions increase. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day 3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow, especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida and the Deep South through the Carolinas. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels entering or already in there spring dip. There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions increase. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z An upper-level ridge over the West will begin to shift eastward over the central US and Great Lakes this weekend through early next week as an upper-level trough moves into the West. Above normal temperatures will shift from the northern Intermountain West Day 3/Saturday to over the northern Plains and Great Lakes Day 4/Sunday into early next week. Scattered precipitation will fall across the northern half to two-thirds of the West, with mountain snow, especially in the northern Rockies. An upper low will slowly migrate east-northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley over the Southeast through mid-next week. Heavy precipitation is expected from Florida and the Deep South through the Carolinas. ...Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday: northern Plains into the Upper Midwest... Southerly flow will strengthen over the Plains, especially the northern Plains into the Upper Midwest this weekend through early next week. With above normal temperatures and the dry return flow, elevated to critical fire weather conditions are likely Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday with a 40% probability introduced. There remains some uncertainty regarding when/where the low-level moisture will increase across the central/northern Plains into the Upper Midwest. Fuels guidance indicates receptive fuels, including certain fuels entering or already in there spring dip. There is the possibility of isolated dry thunderstorms from the Nebraska Panhandle into the western Dakotas Day 4/Sunday - Day 5/Monday. However, there is too much forecast uncertainty to include probabilities at this time. ...Great Basin into the Southwest... As the deep upper-level trough moves into the West, dry/windy conditions will overspread the Intermountain West, especially from the Great Basin through the Southwest. The dry/windy conditions will start Day 3/Saturday from the interior Pacific Northwest and western/northern Great Basin and shift south/east across the Intermountain West through Day 6/Tuesday. Recent precipitation has reduced fuel receptiveness across these areas, but portions of the Southwest may need to be included in future outlooks, especially if probabilities of high-end critical to extremely critical conditions increase. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more