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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081700Z - 091200Z The Elevated area was expanded based on the latest observations and high-resolution ensemble forecast guidance. RH has already dropped to 15-30% in northwest Minnesota with wind gusts of 15-30 mph. In western North Dakota, RH is generally 25-35% with sustained south-southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting 25-35 mph. With daytime heating and the approaching cold front, elevated to locally critical conditions are expected to develop across western North Dakota into northwest Minnesota this afternoon into the early evening. An IsoDryT area was added as well in western North Dakota. There is a 10-30% chance of isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms across western North Dakota late this afternoon into the evening along/ahead of an approaching cold front, with the area along the pre-frontal trough likely a genesis zone. Precipitable water values of 0.5-0.8", storm motions of 10-25 mph, and cloud bases of ~3km AGL will help limit wetting rainfall, although some training could be possible before winds aloft turn more westerly. Gusty and erratic winds are also possible with these storms. ..Nauslar.. 05/08/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1250 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025/ ...Synopsis... Elevated fire weather conditions are expected this afternoon across portions of western North Dakota. 05 UTC surface analysis shows a surface low developing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies, which will track to the east through the day. Southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across ND ahead of a southeastward moving cold front out of MT and Saskatchewan. Although isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected along this boundary by early evening, there should be a 3-4 hour wind during the afternoon with warm temperatures in the low/mid 80s, RH values in the low 20s, and breezy conditions. Although spring green up is underway, dead grasses remain across the fuel landscape and are sufficiently dry to carry large fires (as evidenced by a couple of large fires in recent days across western ND). Similar wind/RH conditions could develop along the MT/Canadian border within the post-frontal regime, but wetting rainfall over the past three days has likely mitigated fuel status for the time being. Elsewhere across the country, widespread rain chances and weak gradient winds will limit additional fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more