Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND PARTS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians/Southeast, with isolated very large hail possible. Severe wind gusts and large to very large hail will also be possible across portions of west/south Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southeast Appalachians into the Southeast... A positively tilted upper trough will extend from Ontario and the Northeast southwestward across the Great Lakes, OH/TN Valley, and into the Mid-South and southern Plains today. A weak surface low analyzed this morning over the mid MS Valley is forecast to gradually fill/lose definition through the afternoon/evening, as a weak cold front moves slowly south-southeastward through the period. Areas of at least scattered to broken clouds remain evident on recent visible satellite imagery from northern MS/western TN to the southern Appalachians. This will tend to hinder diurnal destabilization to some extent, but cool temperatures aloft (around -13 to -16C at 500 mb from area 12Z soundings) and modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates should compensate to some extent. Within the broader upper troughing, a weak embedded upper low/trough will continue to advance slowly eastward from the mid MS Valley to the TN Valley and southern Appalachians through this evening. Modest large-scale ascent associated with this feature, along with weak low-level convergence along the cold front, should be sufficient to aid in at least scattered convective development across these regions this afternoon. A combination of moderate instability and around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear appear adequate to support some thunderstorm organization. Multiple supercells and short line segments/clusters should develop and spread east-southeast this afternoon/evening across parts of the Mid-South into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. Large hail will be possible with sustained supercells, and isolated very large hail (potentially up to 2-2.5 inches in diameter) could also occur. Otherwise, severe/damaging winds will also be a concern with any clusters. Based on latest observational and guidance trends showing a favorable environment this afternoon and evening across a broader portion of the TN Valley/Southeast, the Slight Risk has been expanded westward some across the Mid-South/lower OH Valley where convection is initiating, and eastward to include more of north/central GA, and the western/central Carolinas into south-central VA. A somewhat separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may focus along/near the Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon from parts of coastal/southeast GA to the east-central FL Peninsula. Seasonably cool temperatures aloft combined with moderate to strong instability and a generally long/straight hodograph at mid/upper-levels should support some threat for both large hail and damaging winds with any cells/clusters that can form. ...Rio Grande Valley... Thunderstorms are ongoing late this morning across parts of west TX, in association with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico and related modest low-level warm/moist advection. Current expectations are for this activity to gradually increase in coverage and intensity across the Big Bend region and vicinity through the afternoon as daytime heating acts to further destabilize an already moist low-level airmass. While mid-level winds are not forecast to be overly strong with the low-amplitude shortwave trough, veering winds with height will support deep-layer shear around 35-45 kt. Supercells should be the primary convective mode initially, with a threat for scattered large to very large hail (generally 1.5-2.5 inches in diameter) and isolated severe winds. Additional intense convection should develop over the higher terrain of north-central to northeast Mexico, with some potential for this activity to spread east-southeastward across the Rio Grande Valley this afternoon and evening in a moderately to strongly unstable airmass. Large hail will continue to be a threat with any sustained supercells, and the threat for severe/damaging winds may also increase if a small cluster/MCS can develop and spread southeastward this evening and tonight. Finally, a separate area of strong to severe thunderstorms may develop through the afternoon along/near the coast and a stalled front in deep south TX. This activity would also pose some threat for severe hail/wind given a very moist/unstable airmass and sufficient deep-layer shear for organized updrafts. ..Gleason/Thornton.. 05/08/2025 Read more

MD 0739 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0739 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of Deep South Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 081258Z - 081430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storm development is possible this morning. DISCUSSION...Very rich low-level moisture remains in place across Deep South TX this morning, with MLCAPE above 2500 J/kg and minimal MLCINH already noted on regional 12Z soundings and recent mesoanalyses. With the primary mid/upper-level shortwave trough still well to the west, coverage and intensity of morning convection across the region is uncertain. However, showers have recently developed within a zone of weak surface confluence across Cameron County, and some guidance depicts development of deep convection within this area later this morning. If deep convection can initiate and be sustained this morning, strong instability and favorable deep-layer shear will support supercell potential, with an attendant threat of large hail, locally damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. Given the conditionality of the morning threat, the short-term need for watch issuance is uncertain. Additional rounds of strong to severe storms will be possible later today, with eventual watch issuance possible. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 25889710 25959805 26209836 26659846 27349827 27549791 27539756 27479711 26419698 25889710 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0738 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0738 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081256Z - 081430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms possible this morning. DISCUSSION...Convection has increased this morning near a weak confluence zone across parts of the FL Panhandle and adjacent waters, and weak rotation has been noted with cells near and northeast of Panama City. In the absence of more robust large-scale ascent, the extent to which the ongoing convection can strengthen and be sustained is uncertain. However, relatively rich low-level moisture, MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, and moderate deep-layer shear will support potential for organized storms through the morning. Isolated damaging wind and hail would likely be the primary threats, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Dean/Guyer.. 05/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE... LAT...LON 29938549 30438500 30458423 30298379 29948357 29658359 29478394 29418431 29588524 29938549 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 AM CDT Thu May 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...SOUTHEAST AND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms with severe wind gusts and large hail are expected today over parts of the Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians, with hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter possible. Severe wind gusts and large hail will also be possible in other parts of the Southeast, as well as West/South Texas including the Rio Grande Valley. ...Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians to Southeast... A positively-tilted mid-level trough, with an upper low centered over the Ozarks this morning, will move through the Ohio and mid Mississippi Valleys today, and toward the Appalachians tonight. Surface dewpoints to the south of an advancing cold front will range from the mid 50s to the mid 60s F. As surface temperatures warm during the day, moderate instability is expected to develop with minimal convective inhibition beneath relatively cool mid-level temperatures via the proximity of the upper cold pocket. Storms will steadily increase into the afternoon with some supercells and organizing clusters from western and central Kentucky into middle Tennessee, eastward into the southern Appalachians. These storms will develop south-southeastward into northern Alabama, northern Georgia and the western Carolinas by late afternoon. Large hail can be expected, with hail greater than 2 inches in diameter possible especially with the more discrete and intense supercells. Damaging wind gusts can also be expected regionally. Another relatively favorable area for severe storms may focus across southeast Georgia and nearby far southern South Carolina and/or far north Florida this afternoon through early evening. This will be coincident with somewhat stronger mid-level flow as compared to areas farther south across the northern/central Florida Peninsula, where isolated severe storms are still expected. Regarding northern Florida this morning, see Mesoscale Discussion 738. ...West/South Texas including Rio Grande Valley... A low-latitude shortwave trough will progress east-southeastward across far northern Mexico and along the Rio Grande Valley today and tonight. A corridor of moderate to strong instability will be in place across the Rio Grande Valley. As surface temperatures warm today, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the higher terrain of northern Mexico, with convection spreading eastward into and across the Rio Grande Valley, potentially with multiple rounds/corridors of severe weather possible across South Texas. Regarding short-term severe potential across South Texas, see Mesoscale Discussion 739. Strong deep-layer shear will contribute to supercells capable of large to very large hail and damaging wind gusts, especially if storms cluster/organize across the Rio Grande Valley later this afternoon into evening. ..Guyer/Dean.. 05/08/2025 Read more