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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 05/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms, from damaging winds along with some hail, are possible across the Southeast States, mainly on Friday afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated mid/upper-level trough will begin to separate into a more compact trough across the Northeast and a weak cutoff low over the South-Central States. A weak surface cyclone should accompany the northern shortwave impulse, tracking from the VA vicinity towards coastal southern New England. ...Southeast... The aforementioned synoptic pattern evolution will confine the spatial extent of at least moderate mid-level west-southwesterlies closer to the Coastal Plain and Piedmont regions of the Southeast by Friday afternoon. This should overlap a broad swath of 60s surface dew points, with strong boundary-layer heating from the Carolinas southward where moderate buoyancy is anticipated. Large-scale ascent tied to the vigorous shortwave impulse over the Northeast should largely remain displaced farther north of this plume. Highest confidence in scattered storm development is along the sea breezes and lee trough along the southern Appalachians. Isolated damaging winds and severe hail will be possible. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

MD 0735 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 0735 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Areas affected...northern parts of the Florida Peninsula into extreme southeast Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 071822Z - 071945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A strong wind gust or instance of hail cannot be ruled out with any of the stronger storms. The severe threat should be quite isolated at best, precluding a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are beginning to develop and/or intensify amid a destabilizing airmass, with surface temperatures warming to over 90 F, boosting MLCAPE to over 500 J/kg. Mid-level lapse rates are quite poor, and regional VADS depict short hodographs, which indicate mediocre vertical wind shear. As such, the severe threat should remain quite sparse, with no WW issuance expected. Still, strong enough surface heating and associated low-level lapse rates may foster organized strong thunderstorms that may produce a strong wind gust or brief instance of hail. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 28198195 28628226 29478244 30558227 30888205 30928163 30488141 29858135 29208100 28808082 28408098 28148120 28058146 28198195 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered damaging winds and severe hail are possible over the southern Appalachians on Thursday afternoon to early evening. A swath of large hail and severe wind is possible along the Rio Grande Valley from mid-afternoon to evening. ...Synopsis... An elongated, positive-tilt mid/upper trough from southeast Canada to the Rio Grande will slowly progress east on Thursday. At least a trio of embedded shortwave impulses will aid in corridors of modest large-scale ascent, amid a pervasive swath of 35-50 kt 500-mb west-southwesterlies across the South into the East. Given the highly positive-tilt orientation of the trough, attendant surface reflections will remain weak. A minor surface wave over the Mid-South should decay by early evening, while a separate low drifts northeast from the lee of the southern Appalachians to VA. ...Mid-South to southern Appalachians... Multiple corridors of scattered thunderstorm development are expected by Thursday afternoon, ahead of a shortwave impulse drifting from the Ozarks across a portion of the Mid-South. Lingering activity/cloud cover during the morning will serve as the northern limiter to severe potential, along with weaker deep-layer shear closer to the trough. The most likely zone for a scattered severe hail and damaging wind threat appears to be across the southern Appalachians vicinity where MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt effective bulk shear are anticipated. Here, a few supercells may congeal into an organized cluster or two. Farther west, lesser values of instability and shear should yield a more isolated/marginal severe threat. ...TX Rio Grande Valley... A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress from northern Chihuahua along the Rio Grande. Numerous thunderstorms are expected ahead of the impulse across the southern Trans-Pecos/Big Bend by mid-afternoon and adjacent Coahuila. Uncertainty increases with how this activity will evolve downstream Thursday evening, potentially remaining primarily across northeast Mexico or growing upscale across the Lower Rio Grande Valley into Deep South TX as it impinges on richer low-level moisture. With low-level northeasterlies beneath mid/upper-level west-southwesterlies, an elongated/nearly straight-line hodograph is expected. This should foster splitting supercell structures, which could congeal into a cluster/small MCS. The primary limiting factor to more robust intensity will be a lack of steep mid-level lapse rates amid weak warm advection. Still, enough signal exists to warrant a level 2/SLGT risk. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing for ascent should promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing off the central Appalachians and Blue Ridge Mountains on Thursday afternoon. A well-mixed boundary layer with weak MLCAPE and moderate effective shear will allow for a few transient/weakly organized cells during the afternoon. This could promote small hail amid weak mid-level lapse rates and support a primary threat of localized damaging winds. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Sufficient mid-level westerlies are expected to support a few weakly organized storms along the sea breeze boundary on Thursday afternoon. Mid-level temperatures should remain cold enough to support an isolated severe hail threat. A warm/moist boundary layer will also foster isolated strong to severe gusts. ..Grams.. 05/07/2025 Read more