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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-505-070840- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ135-231-232-070840- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

MD 0732 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0732 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of the lower Rio Grande Valley Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 070456Z - 070700Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...An isolated intense supercell, or perhaps small organizing cluster of storms, may continue to evolve west of the lower Rio Grande Valley during the next few hours, before beginning to move across the Red River toward 3-4 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Moist upslope flow west of the Rio Grande River has contributed to the initiation of thunderstorm development along the higher terrain, around 75-80 miles southwest of Laredo. This may be aided by forcing associated with a weak a mid-level short wave trough embedded within southwesterly deep-layer mean flow on the order of 30-40 kt. At mid/upper levels this flow is strong and conducive to supercell development, particularly given inflow of seasonably moist air characterized by large CAPE, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. Although substantive near-surface drying has occurred across the Cotulla vicinity into the areas south of Laredo, with continued veering of near-surface flow from northerly to easterly, westward advection of mid 70s+ surface dew points up the lower Rio Grande Valley is likely to continue overnight. Various model output suggests that this may become supportive of at least isolated thunderstorm development propagating off the higher terrain, and across the Rio Grande River by 08-09Z. Given the environment, this could include a supercell capable of producing large hail and strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Smith.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 28119960 27409854 26699874 26330030 26960088 28119960 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0237 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A BROAD PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with large hail and damaging winds are possible, mainly Thursday afternoon and evening, from southern Texas across the Southeast and into the Lower Mid-Atlantic States. ...Synopsis... An elongated trough from the Northeast into the Southwest will shift eastward on Thursday. Areas of moderate mid-level winds will support some potential for strong to severe storms across a very broad region from the Trans-Pecos into the Mid-South/Southeast and the southern Mid-Atlantic. As the trough will be highly positively tilted, the surface pattern will be rather nebulous and mid-level ascent will be weak. A weak surface boundary is expected from parts of the southern Plains into the Mid Atlantic. Outlook refinement is possible as greater details of potential mesoscale severe risk corridors become more evident. ...Mid-South... A weak surface front may help to focus convective development during the afternoon. Given the orientation of the upper trough, mid-level ascent will be rather weak. Still, temperatures will be cold aloft and shear on the southern periphery of the weak upper low will be sufficient for isolated organized cells capable of large hail and damaging winds. Storm coverage and timing remain a bit uncertain as some cloud cover (some with the upper low and other influence from convection farther south) could hinder surface heating. These uncertainties preclude higher hail probabilities. ...Trans-Pecos into Rio Grande Valley... A modest shortwave trough in northern Mexico will slide eastward into the Trans-Pecos by early afternoon. Storms are expected to initiate within the Davis Mountains and move southeastward into low 60s F dewpoints. Temperatures aloft will not be overly cold, but 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE can be expected as the storms move into richer moisture. It is possible that this activity grows upscale and moves along the Rio Grande Valley into South Texas late evening into early Friday morning. Given the timing of this activity, some boundary layer cooling will have occurred and marginally warmer air aloft in forecast soundings may limit a more organized severe threat. ...Southern Mid-Atlantic... Modest mid-level forcing should promote convection along the Appalachians/Blue Ridge. A well-mixed boundary layer with 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 35-40 kts of effective shear will allow for a few organized storms during the afternoon. Damaging winds and isolated marginally severe hail may occur. ...Southern Atlantic Coast... Though models differ on the placement of the stronger core of mid-level winds, sufficient westerly flow aloft is probable for a few organized storms along the sea breeze boundary. Temperatures should remain cold enough aloft to support a large hail threat. Damaging winds are also possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1238 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...Synopsis... Fire weather potential will generally be limited for much of the country on Thursday, though regional concerns will likely emerge for parts of western North Dakota during the afternoon hours. A cold front associated with a clipper low migrating across the Canadian Prairies is forecast to push across central and eastern MT during the day. Pre-frontal southerly flow is forecast to increase to 15-20 mph across western ND by late afternoon. A combination of temperatures warming into the low 80s with deep boundary-layer mixing should yield RH values in the low to mid 20s. Much of western ND has remained dry over the past few days, and residual dead grasses have supported a couple of large fires over the past week. While the fire weather threat is not expected to be particularly widespread, the potential for elevated fire weather conditions over a receptive fuel landscape warrants highlights. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more