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WW 236 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 070100Z - 070500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 236 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 800 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday night from 800 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A few supercells are forecast to develop this evening and pose mainly a threat for large to very large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles north of Beeville TX to 25 miles west southwest of Mcallen TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 234...WW 235... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 29030. ...Smith Read more

MD 0729 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 234...235... FOR IN PARTS OF SERN TX...CNTRL AND SRN LA...SWRN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 0729 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0810 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...in parts of sern TX...cntrl and srn LA...swrn MS Concerning...Tornado Watch 234...235... Valid 070110Z - 070315Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234, 235 continues. SUMMARY...Strong convection, embedded within a broader area of thunderstorm activity, could still gradually organize this evening across parts of central Louisiana into southwestern and south central Louisiana. Although uncertain, it is possible Tornado Watch 234 will be allowed to expire as scheduled at 02Z. DISCUSSION...Although the primary surface baroclinic zone remains stalled across central Louisiana through southern Mississippi, consolidating convective development across much of southern into central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi has primarily remain rooted within lift associated with warm advection, above the seasonably moist boundary layer. This idea is supported by 07/00Z raobs from Lake Charles and Slidell. If lift of boundary-layer parcels through at least weak inhibition evident in the 850-700 mb layer could be sustained, the environment still appears supportive of supercells with the conditional risk of a strong tornado. However, this is appearing less likely with time. It still might not be out of the question that stronger convection could gradually organize over the next few hours, particularly close to the frontal zone across southwestern/south central Mississippi. This could result in another developing mesoscale convective vortex, perhaps accompanied by increasing potential for strong to severe surface gusts. ..Kerr.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 31909299 32119194 31979134 32289068 32138993 31278982 30379055 29909148 29829318 30209465 31909299 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ESF TO 20 W HEZ TO 40 NE HEZ TO 55 NW PIB. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-029-033-037-047-063-077-091-105-117-121-125-070340- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-029-037-063-077-085-113-127-147-157-070340- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE COPIAH FRANKLIN JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN PIKE SIMPSON WALTHALL WILKINSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL Read more

MD 0728 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 0728 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0735 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...parts of the Texas Coastal Plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 070035Z - 070230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing along a cold front/outflow boundary will likely pose a large hail threat across parts of the TX Coastal Plain for the next few hours. Watch issuance is probable based on recent convective trends. DISCUSSION...Regional radar mosaics and GOES IR imagery show multiple thunderstorms and convective towers developing along a southeastward moving cold front/outflow boundary along the TX Coastal Plain. The near-storm convective environment remains very favorable for organized convection with around 4000 J/kg MLCAPE and roughly 60 knots of effective bulk shear recently sampled by the 00 UTC CRP sounding. This environment will support vigorous thunderstorm development along the boundary with primarily a large to very large hail threat (possibly upwards of 2.0 to 3.5 inches in diameter). Stronger capping with southwestward extend should limit storm coverage, but will also promote a higher probability for discrete, potentially long-lived convection. Given the recent radar trends of the developing cells (echo tops beginning to exceed 40-50 kft), watch issuance appears probable. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX... LAT...LON 27689711 27549718 27379733 27329746 27389775 27569870 27719885 27919881 28199863 28849798 29339730 29469693 29449666 29259649 29079638 28809628 28589623 28439625 28409636 27969693 27689711 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

MD 0727 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR FAR SOUTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0727 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0706 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Far south Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 070006Z - 070200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms developing west of the lower Rio Grande may cross into far south Texas later this evening. If this occurs, the environment is favorable for robust supercells with an attendant large hail and severe wind threat. DISCUSSION...Multiple attempts at sustained deep convection are underway along the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains to the west of the lower Rio Grande. Storms that can remain sustained away from the orographic ascent along the terrain will migrate into an increasingly moist/buoyant air mass with eastward extent into Deep South TX where they will likely intensify into robust supercells given a very buoyant and strongly sheared environment (MLCAPE values upwards of 4000 J/kg with ~60 knots of effective deep layer shear). One deeper/stronger cell northwest of Rio Grande City, TX has recently exhibited echo tops above 50 kft, suggesting that this cell could remain sustained for the next few hours and pose a downstream threat for large hail (potentially upwards of 2.0 to 3.5 inches) and severe winds. Recent high-res guidance suggests multiple rounds of isolated convection may move into the region through the late evening and overnight hours. ..Moore/Smith.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26349909 26589923 27119958 27289946 27269910 26969768 26869740 26629735 26319722 25999722 25899727 25839749 25949778 26039825 26109847 26199874 26269899 26349909 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-061-131-175-215-247-249-261-273-297-355-391-409- 427-489-505-070340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ231-232-236-070340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS Read more

WW 0236 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 236 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOORE..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 236 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-061-131-175-215-247-249-261-273-297-355-391-409- 427-489-505-070340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CAMERON DUVAL GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO STARR WILLACY ZAPATA GMZ231-232-236-070340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS COPANO ARANSAS AND REDFISH BAYS Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE ESF TO 20 W HEZ TO 60 NNE HEZ TO 70 W MEI. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 235 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-029-033-037-047-063-077-091-105-117-121-125-070240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION CONCORDIA EAST BATON ROUGE EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE LIVINGSTON POINTE COUPEE ST. HELENA TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE WEST FELICIANA MSC001-005-021-029-037-049-063-077-085-113-121-127-147-149-157- 070240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS AMITE CLAIBORNE COPIAH FRANKLIN HINDS JEFFERSON LAWRENCE LINCOLN PIKE RANKIN SIMPSON WALTHALL WARREN WILKINSON Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LCH TO 25 NNW LCH TO 40 SSE ESF. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AN HOUR BEYOND 07/02. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-097-099-101-113-070200- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LCH TO 25 NNW LCH TO 40 SSE ESF. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AN HOUR BEYOND 07/02. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-097-099-101-113-070200- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LCH TO 25 NNW LCH TO 40 SSE ESF. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AN HOUR BEYOND 07/02. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-097-099-101-113-070200- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W LCH TO 25 NNW LCH TO 40 SSE ESF. PARTS OF REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME FOR AN HOUR BEYOND 07/02. ..KERR..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-045-055-097-099-101-113-070200- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA IBERIA LAFAYETTE ST. LANDRY ST. MARTIN ST. MARY VERMILION THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 234 TORNADO LA TX 061835Z - 070200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 234 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 135 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Louisiana East Texas * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A line of thunderstorms with embedded supercells will spread eastward over east Texas into Louisiana this afternoon and evening. Main threats will be tornadoes and severe/damaging winds. A strong tornado or two will be possible with any supercell that can persist along/ahead of the ongoing thunderstorms. Isolated large hail may also occur. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 10 miles west southwest of Lufkin TX to 25 miles northeast of Alexandria LA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232...WW 233... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 24035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN...SABINE RIVER VALLEY...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms, associated with large hail, severe gusts and an isolated tornado threat, will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain, Sabine River Valley and lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Marginally severe hail will also be possible in parts of west Texas. ...Texas Coastal Plain/Sabine River Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front across the Texas Coastal Plain, along which a broken line of strong thunderstorms is ongoing. An MCS is located from east Texas eastward across much of Louisiana, along and near a warm front. The MCS is being supported by large-scale ascent associated with a shortwave trough, evident on water vapor imagery over the Ark-La-Tex and lower Mississippi Valley. The storms are also being supported by warm advection from southern Louisiana into far southern Mississippi, where the RAP has MLCAPE in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg range. The MCS will continue to move eastward across this unstable airmass this evening. Within the MCS, rotating storms should be capable of producing large hail and wind damage. In addition, the Lake Charles, Louisiana 00Z Sounding has 0-3 km storm-relative helicity near 500 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with supercells that remain strong this evening. Further southwest from the Texas Coastal Plain into south Texas, a very moist and unstable airmass will reside this evening. In south Texas, the RAP suggests that MLCAPE is as great as 4500 J/kg. The strong instability is reflected on the 00Z sounding at Brownsville, Texas, where 0-6 km shear is near 50 knots, and the 700-500 mb lapse rate is near 8 C/km. This environment will support supercell development later this evening into the overnight period as a subtle shortwave trough moves into the region. Isolated large hail and severe gusts will be possible. ...West Texas... A mid-level low is currently evident on water vapor imagery across eastern New Mexico. A trough extends southeastward from the low across west and north Texas. The trough is supporting thunderstorm storm development along and near an axis of instability. The RAP is estimating MLCAPE in the 500 to 750 J/kg range over parts of the Caprock near Lubbock. In addition, the Lubbock WSR-88D VWP has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots. RAP forecast soundings early this evening near Lubbock have steep low to mid-level lapse rates in the 7 to 8 C/km range. This environment should support a marginal threat for hail and severe gusts over the next hour or two. ..Broyles.. 05/07/2025 Read more