Aggregator

MD 0724 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 0724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0432 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Parts of eastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 062132Z - 062300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm potential will increase across parts of eastern Louisiana into southwestern Mississippi over then next few hours. Primary concerns are large hail and damaging winds, though the tornado risk could increase with time. DISCUSSION...A mix of semi-discrete supercells and line segments are evolving in the warm-advection wing extending from eastern LA into southwestern MS. Around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear (per HDC VWP data) and middle/upper 60s dewpoints spreading gradually northward along/south of the warm front will continue to support this activity as it continues spreading east-northeastward over the next few hours. While some of these storms will remain elevated north of the warm front, posing mainly a risk of large hail, any storms that can mature along/south of the surface front will be capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a brief tornado -- given ample low-level buoyancy and SRH. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible watch for parts of the area. ..Weinman/Smith.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30729084 31489171 32469178 32819158 32959114 32909069 32509000 31268926 30688954 30479016 30729084 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 233 SEVERE TSTM NJ NY PA 061705Z - 070000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 233 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 105 PM EDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and Northern New Jersey South-Central New York Eatsern Pennsylvania * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 105 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms should continue to increase in coverage and intensity this afternoon as they move generally northward. The strongest thunderstorms could produce hail up to 1-1.5 inches in diameter and damaging winds with peak gusts to 60-70 mph. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north northeast of Binghamton NY to 35 miles west of Philadelphia PA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 231...WW 232... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 19030. ...Gleason Read more

WW 0235 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0235 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

MD 0723 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 234... FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO MUCH OF LOUISIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0723 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Texas to much of Louisiana. Concerning...Tornado Watch 234... Valid 062048Z - 062215Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 234 continues. SUMMARY...Continued threat for severe wind gusts, tornadoes, and isolated hail. DISCUSSION...A well-developed line of storms extends from east-central Texas to northwest Louisiana. Sporadic wind damage and at least one tornado has been reported thus far within the line. A more favorable orientation of the line has occurred across northeast Texas/northwest Louisiana where a bowing segment is apparent. In addition, a tornado with a TDS was recently observed southwest of the SHV radar where a leading supercell interacted with this line. Limited surface base instability amid mid 60s dewpoints and preceding rainfall should keep the tornado threat somewhat limited, but enough surface based or near surface based instability is present for some tornado threat near the apex of this bow, particularly where any cell interactions occur. Expect the greatest severe wind threat near this bowing segment of the line across northern Louisiana this afternoon and into the early evening. Farther south, isolated large hail and severe wind gusts are possible, particularly with any embedded supercells within the line. A conditional greater tornado threat exists with any supercells which can develop along/south of the warm front in Louisiana where STP values are around 2 to 3. STP values may increase this evening as low-level shear strengthens. Convection strengthening across southeast Texas could be the beginning of this potential threat. If any of these supercells can remain discrete with sufficient longevity to mature, they will pose a strong tornado threat this afternoon/evening. ..Bentley.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX... LAT...LON 32599438 32889379 32969282 32829236 32319202 31539204 30579252 30199349 29979421 29549570 29519653 29559682 29779721 30239722 30849622 31759508 32599438 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LFK TO 25 E SHV TO 35 SSW ELD. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-013-019-021-027-031-039-043-049-053-055-059- 061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-115-127-062240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY UNION VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-062240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW LFK TO 25 E SHV TO 35 SSW ELD. ..KERR..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-013-019-021-027-031-039-043-049-053-055-059- 061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-115-127-062240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY UNION VERNON WINN TXC005-199-241-245-347-351-361-403-405-419-457-062240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANGELINA HARDIN JASPER JEFFERSON NACOGDOCHES NEWTON ORANGE SABINE SAN AUGUSTINE Read more

MD 0722 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0722 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into northwestern New Jersey and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233... Valid 062037Z - 062200Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 continues. SUMMARY...Additional instances of damaging gusts and perhaps hail remain possible with the stronger storms. A tornado may still occur with storms ahead of a pre-frontal boundary. DISCUSSION...A primary arching band of strong thunderstorms persists ahead of a pseudo-dryline pre-frontal boundary across far eastern PA, with temperatures rising into the upper 70s F amid 10 degree F dewpoint decreases as the boundary passes. These pre-frontal storms have been the most organized so far, with multiple instances of low-level rotation detected and an apparent tornado reported in the past hour. The best chance for an additional tornado remains with these storms, along the PA/NJ/NY borders, before the ongoing storms move into a more stable airmass. Otherwise, strong wind gusts and perhaps hail may develop with the stronger storms to the west of the pre-frontal boundary. ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... LAT...LON 40267688 41177674 42567623 42787535 42797500 42027455 41117454 40727455 40397480 40187520 40117594 40267688 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

MD 0721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
Mesoscale Discussion 0721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0227 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...much of the Florida Peninsula Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061927Z - 062200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...A sparse severe threat could develop this afternoon across the FL Peninsula, where a stray damaging gust or instance of hail are possible. However, the severe threat should be isolated at best, precluding a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Strong surface heating has aided in thunderstorm initiation across the FL Peninsula as temperatures have climbed over 90 F. Given at least upper 60s F dewpoints steep low-level lapse rates, 2000-3000 J/kg MLCAPE are in place south of a remnant frontal boundary per 19Z mesoanalysis. Synoptic forcing is weak and vertical wind shear is quite poor, casting doubt on any appreciable severe threat. However, if a robust thunderstorm manages to develop and persist, the strong buoyancy in place may support an instance of hail or strong wind gusts, especially over southern parts of the Florida Peninsula. Given the very isolated nature of the severe threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...JAX... LAT...LON 25308083 26188173 27448225 29118239 29718163 29658121 28658070 27498028 26578015 25948017 25438037 25308083 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more