Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PHL TO 25 E UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC019-021-027-035-037-041-062140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC007-015-017-023-025-077-097-105-107-109-062140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE OTSEGO SCHUYLER SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC011-015-017-025-029-037-045-069-077-079-089-091-093-095-097- 101-103-107-113-115-127-131-062140- Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PHL TO 25 E UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC019-021-027-035-037-041-062140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC007-015-017-023-025-077-097-105-107-109-062140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE OTSEGO SCHUYLER SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC011-015-017-025-029-037-045-069-077-079-089-091-093-095-097- 101-103-107-113-115-127-131-062140- Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LFK TO 35 ESE GGG TO 35 NNW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723 ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-039-043-049-053- 055-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-115-119-127-062140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-199-241-245-347-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0720 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061915Z - 062045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Stronger storms may develop this afternoon, posing a risk for a severe gust, instance of hail, or a landspout tornado. The severe threat appears too isolated and/or localized to warrant a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to deepen beneath and immediately ahead of an upper low that is slowly drifting eastward across the southern Rockies. A plume of colder mid-level temperatures accompanying this upper low is advecting eastward, resulting in a steep mid-level lapse rate plume overspreading a destabilizing airmass. To the west of a remnant northwest-to-southeast oriented baroclinic boundary draped across the TX Panhandle, surface temperatures are rising into the 60s F amid upper 40s F dewpoints, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE given the aforementioned colder temperatures aloft. Given scant buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, the overall severe threat should remain isolated, hence no WW issuance planned. However, a severe gust or instance of hail may accompany one of the stronger storms that manages to materialize. Furthermore, deep-layer vertical oriented vorticity (including at low levels) does overlap with well over 100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE in far eastern NM, where a landspout could form if a robust updraft can develop and take advantage of this environment. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33100493 33750466 34430446 35040419 35250389 35390333 35110265 34430199 33350123 32880158 32690232 32720345 32720415 33100493 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more