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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0417 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Fire weather concerns will remain low in the D3/Thursday through D8/Tuesday period. A broad upper-low will linger across the southeastern US as heights rise with an upper-level ridge building in the western US. The building upper-level high in the west will bring warming and drying conditions but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. Some breezy/dry conditions may overlap as a shortwave traverses the northern periphery of the ridge across Montana/North Dakota on D3/Thursday. Late in period D6/Sunday into D8/Tuesday, a trough is progged to develop across the western Pacific. Increased southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the Great Basin region, bringing likely overlap of wind/dry conditions ahead of potential for more precipitation. Fuels in this region are generally below seasonal averages for dryness, owing to recent scattered shower and thunderstorm activity. Though some drying is forecast in ERC modeling, it is unlikely fuels will be overly receptive for fire spread, leading to low confidence in including any areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PHL TO 25 E UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC019-021-027-035-037-041-062140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC007-015-017-023-025-077-097-105-107-109-062140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE OTSEGO SCHUYLER SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC011-015-017-025-029-037-045-069-077-079-089-091-093-095-097- 101-103-107-113-115-127-131-062140- Read more

WW 0233 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PHL TO 25 E UNV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0722 ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...PHI...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 233 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NJC019-021-027-035-037-041-062140- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HUNTERDON MERCER MORRIS SOMERSET SUSSEX WARREN NYC007-015-017-023-025-077-097-105-107-109-062140- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOME CHEMUNG CHENANGO CORTLAND DELAWARE OTSEGO SCHUYLER SULLIVAN TIOGA TOMPKINS PAC011-015-017-025-029-037-045-069-077-079-089-091-093-095-097- 101-103-107-113-115-127-131-062140- Read more

WW 0234 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW LFK TO 35 ESE GGG TO 35 NNW SHV. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0723 ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 234 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC001-003-009-011-013-015-017-019-021-027-031-039-043-049-053- 055-059-061-069-073-079-081-085-097-111-115-119-127-062140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES BEAUREGARD BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO CALCASIEU CALDWELL CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EVANGELINE GRANT JACKSON JEFFERSON DAVIS LAFAYETTE LA SALLE LINCOLN NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RAPIDES RED RIVER SABINE ST. LANDRY UNION VERNON WEBSTER WINN TXC005-073-199-241-245-347-351-361-365-403-405-419-457-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

MD 0720 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061915Z - 062045Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Stronger storms may develop this afternoon, posing a risk for a severe gust, instance of hail, or a landspout tornado. The severe threat appears too isolated and/or localized to warrant a WW issuance. DISCUSSION...Convection is beginning to deepen beneath and immediately ahead of an upper low that is slowly drifting eastward across the southern Rockies. A plume of colder mid-level temperatures accompanying this upper low is advecting eastward, resulting in a steep mid-level lapse rate plume overspreading a destabilizing airmass. To the west of a remnant northwest-to-southeast oriented baroclinic boundary draped across the TX Panhandle, surface temperatures are rising into the 60s F amid upper 40s F dewpoints, contributing to over 500 J/kg MLCAPE given the aforementioned colder temperatures aloft. Given scant buoyancy and deep-layer vertical shear, the overall severe threat should remain isolated, hence no WW issuance planned. However, a severe gust or instance of hail may accompany one of the stronger storms that manages to materialize. Furthermore, deep-layer vertical oriented vorticity (including at low levels) does overlap with well over 100 J/kg 0-3 km CAPE in far eastern NM, where a landspout could form if a robust updraft can develop and take advantage of this environment. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 33100493 33750466 34430446 35040419 35250389 35390333 35110265 34430199 33350123 32880158 32690232 32720345 32720415 33100493 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 231 TORNADO TX 061315Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop near a warm front across the region with other storms related to an eastward-moving cluster of storms across central Texas early today. Tornado potential is apparent, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Damaging winds and large hail are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of San Antonio TX to 35 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 35 E AUS TO 40 WNW LFK. ..WEINMAN..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-089-123-149-157-177-185-201-225-285-287-291- 313-339-373-407-455-471-473-477-481-062140- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LIBERTY MADISON MONTGOMERY POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 231 TORNADO TX 061315Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 231 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 815 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Central and East/Southeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 815 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely with a couple intense tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop near a warm front across the region with other storms related to an eastward-moving cluster of storms across central Texas early today. Tornado potential is apparent, including the possibility of strong tornadoes. Damaging winds and large hail are also expected. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles north northwest of San Antonio TX to 35 miles southeast of Huntsville TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 24025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0719 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 233... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK
Mesoscale Discussion 0719 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...portions of eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and southern New York Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233... Valid 061843Z - 062015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 continues. SUMMARY...Strong, damaging wind gusts and hail remain the primary threats across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 233 through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Ample diurnal heating has supporting boundary layer destabilization and subsequent development of multiple bands of thunderstorms ahead of a pronounced upper trough. Damaging gusts and hail (some stones approaching 1 inch in diameter) have been reported with some of the stronger storms. Given the presence of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40+ kts of effective bulk shear preceding ongoing storms, additional strong wind gusts and instances of hail remain possible through the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 39747698 40447694 41847679 42467662 42717597 42767521 42317466 41007440 40217468 39737530 39617595 39747698 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more