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MD 0718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR EAST TEXAS AND MUCH OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA.
Mesoscale Discussion 0718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0119 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Areas affected...East Texas and much of central Louisiana. Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 061819Z - 061945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent SUMMARY...A downstream tornado watch will likely be needed soon for portions of East Texas and much of central Louisiana. DISCUSSION...A line of storms has developed across central Texas. Embedded supercells within this line have shown persistent circulation with at least one confirmed tornado thus far. East of this line, the boundary layer continues to destabilize as a warm front lifts north. This will support a continued threat through the afternoon and into the evening along and south of the warm front. Favorable low-level shear is present ahead of this line across East Texas where SPC mesoanalysis shows a peak STP of 3 to 4. Expect this environment to continue to expand north and east ahead of this line with a persistent threat for primarily severe wind gusts and tornadoes. The higher end tornado threat hinges primarily on whether supercells can develop ahead of the ongoing linear activity. If this occurs, a greater strong tornado threat would exist this afternoon/evening. However, it is unclear whether this will occur. Storm development seems closely tied to the warm front/cold front and temperatures along the warm front across east Texas and west-central Louisiana are only in the low to mid 70s. Warmer temperatures have developed farther south across southeast Texas, but without a focused boundary for development, new development within this environment may be challenging. Nonetheless, even if the more discrete supercell threat does not materialize, confidence is high for a line of storms to move across East Texas and central Louisiana within a moderately unstable and strongly sheared environment. This will necessitate a tornado watch shortly. In addition, based on the current warm front location and expected northward movement, a few of the southern counties within severe thunderstorm watch 232 may also need to be replaced by a tornado watch with the issuance of this downstream watch. ..Bentley/Gleason.. 05/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX... LAT...LON 30339448 30749464 31829471 32099387 32389302 32229220 31799210 31379207 30769209 30449227 30299380 30339448 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...120-150 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

WW 0231 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S BAZ TO 25 SSE AUS TO 40 W CLL TO 45 SE CRS. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...HGX...EWX...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 231 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC015-021-041-051-055-089-123-149-157-177-185-187-201-225-285- 287-289-291-313-331-339-373-395-407-455-471-473-477-481- 062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUSTIN BASTROP BRAZOS BURLESON CALDWELL COLORADO DEWITT FAYETTE FORT BEND GONZALES GRIMES GUADALUPE HARRIS HOUSTON LAVACA LEE LEON LIBERTY MADISON MILAM MONTGOMERY POLK ROBERTSON SAN JACINTO TRINITY WALKER WALLER WASHINGTON WHARTON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0232 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE CRS TO 45 SSW TYR TO 15 SSE TYR TO 20 ENE TYR TO 30 N GGG TO 5 S TXK. ..BENTLEY..05/06/25 ATTN...WFO...FWD...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 232 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC067-315-343-459-062040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS MARION MORRIS UPSHUR THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 232 SEVERE TSTM TX 061450Z - 062100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 232 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 950 AM CDT Tue May 6 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of North-central and Northeast Texas * Effective this Tuesday morning and afternoon from 950 AM until 400 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Mainly elevated supercells should pose some threat for large hail up to 1-2 inches in diameter. Some increase in the severe/damaging wind threat may occur by this afternoon along/near a warm front across east-central TX, where a tornado or two will also be possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south southwest of Fort Worth TX to 35 miles east of Longview TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 230...WW 231... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Gleason Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more info. ..Thornton.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0107 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal for Wednesday across the country. An upper low currently over the Southwest will meander over the south-central U.S. for the next 48 hours. This will maintain widespread rain chances for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Across the northern Plains and upper MS River Valley, breezy conditions are possible behind a cold front, but an influx of cooler air will limit fire concerns. Dry conditions will likely persist across southwest TX where several days of preceding dry/windy conditions will likely cure fine fuels, but weak gradient winds will limit the fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more