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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Tue May 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF EAST/SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO WESTERN LOUISIANA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected today into this evening, especially across parts of east/southeast Texas and Louisiana. Large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes, potentially a few of which may be strong, are expected. Severe thunderstorms are also expected this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and the Florida Peninsula. ...20Z Update... The primary change with this update was trimming severe probabilities behind a squall line tracking eastward across parts of east/southeast Texas. A separate area of severe hail/wind probabilities were maintained and expanded slightly over the southern High Plains -- closer to the cold-core upper low. See MCD #720 for details on the severe risk here. Farther south, guidance continues to suggest an uptick in severe-thunderstorm potential across south TX during the overnight hours. While steep lapse rates atop rich boundary-layer moisture would conditionally support a couple supercells capable of producing large hail and severe winds, the overall threat appears too conditional for higher probabilities at this time. ..Weinman.. 05/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Tue May 06 2025/ ...Southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley... Multiple supercells are ongoing late this morning across central TX along/near a surface warm front. As an upper trough/low continues to eject eastward over the southern Plains today, a rather favorable environment will be in place this afternoon and evening for intense severe thunderstorms across central/east-central TX into LA. Even with continued cloudiness across the warm sector, filtered daytime heating and the presence of modestly steep mid-level lapse rates will support moderate to locally strong instability given the rich/moist low-level airmass present. Ample low-level and deep-layer shear will foster continued updraft organization, including the potential for several supercells. The greatest potential for tornadoes, some of which could be strong, will likely remain focused along/near the warm front, which will attempt to lift northward some across east TX and LA through the afternoon and evening. Otherwise, large hail will be possible north of the warm front with elevated supercells. A severe/damaging wind threat will exist with any clusters that can become established. The tornado and damaging wind threat will probably continue through the evening and perhaps overnight hours across parts of the lower MS Valley, given sufficient instability and strong low-level shear along/near the warm front. Have therefore adjusted the Slight Risk eastward some across this region. Have also trimmed the Slight Risk from the southern High Plains, as low-topped convection closer to the cold-core upper low will probably only have access to weak instability this afternoon/evening. Still, this activity may have an isolated hail/wind threat, and the Marginal Risk has been maintained across the southern High Plains for this potential. ...Northern Mid-Atlantic/Northeast... Even in the presence of some cloud cover, thunderstorm development and intensification will occur this afternoon across parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic and vicinity in a modestly moist/unstable air mass preceding an upper low over the upper OH Valley. Relatively steep lapse rates aloft and moderate to strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow should support organized convection capable of severe hail and damaging winds. The best severe threat should remain focused across parts of eastern PA into NJ and southern NY, where the Slight Risk has been maintained with only small expansions. ...Florida... Upper ridging should be more influential today over FL compared to yesterday. Still, cool temperatures aloft and moderate instability could support occasionally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail and/or damaging winds this afternoon across parts of the FL Peninsula along/south of a remnant front. Read more