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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. An upper trough over the central/southern Plains will slowly drift east through the day. A secondary shortwave trough is noted in water-vapor imagery over the Southwest. Scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of both of these features will limit fire concerns for much of the Southwest, Plains, and Southeast. Although receptive fuels and dry conditions remain across parts of West TX, gradient winds are forecast to remain relatively weak. Localized fire weather conditions may emerge across parts of eastern MT where southerly winds are forecast to increase to 15-20 mph by late afternoon. However, relative humidity values should generally remain above 30% for most areas. ..Moore.. 05/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1217 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms with large hail and wind damage will be possible across parts of the Texas Coastal Plain. Marginally severe storms will also be possible in parts of the southern Plains, Ark-La-Tex and from the Sabine River Valley to the central Gulf Coast. ...Texas Coastal Plain... Mid-level flow will remain west-southwesterly today across the southern Plains. At the surface, a moist airmass will be located across the Texas Coastal Plain, where surface dewpoints will range from the mid 60s to the lower 70s F. The airmass will be moderately unstable throughout the day as onshore easterly flow keeps the moisture in place. Although low-level convergence will be weak across this airmass, isolated thunderstorms could develop in the afternoon as minor mid-level perturbations pass through the flow. RAP forecast soundings between San Antonio and Corpus Christi have MLCAPE peaking near 3000 J/kg, with 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are forecast to be near 7 C/km. This could be enough for isolated large hail with cells that develop during the mid to late afternoon. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...Southern Plains/Ark-La-Tex... A mid-level low will move eastward across the central Plains today, as west-southwesterly flow remains in place across the southern Plains. To the southeast of the low, a moist and unstable airmass will be in place from east Texas northward into eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Surface heating and large-scale ascent will likely support scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon. RAP forecast soundings across eastern Oklahoma at 21Z have 0-6 km shear near 50 knots, with steep low-level lapse rates exceeding 7 C/km. This, combined with relatively cold mid-level temperatures of -16C to -18C, could be enough for hail. Marginally severe gusts will also be possible. ...Sabine River Valley/Central Gulf Coast... Thunderstorms, with some potentially strong, are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period from the northwest Gulf east-northeastward into the central Gulf Coast states. This convection is forecast to become an organized line segment, moving eastward across the northern Gulf from this morning into the afternoon. The northern edge of this line segment may affect areas near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and western Florida. Instability and steep low-level lapse rates may support a marginal potential for severe gusts. ..Broyles/Moore.. 05/07/2025 Read more