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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... From this weekend through early next week, an upper-level low will be situated in the lower Mississippi Valley into the northern Gulf. This feature will drive repeated days of convection within parts of the Southeast into the Florida Peninsula. Lower-end severe potential may occur with this activity, but how organized/intense it will be is not certain. The upper-level low will become more progressive and lift northeastward by the middle of next week. Shortwave ridging aloft will move through the Plains into the Southeast in advance of a western trough. With the presence of the upper low over the Gulf Coast region, there will be offshore flow in the western Gulf for a few days before moisture returns northward again in response to the mid-week trough. The largest uncertainty with this system will be the moisture quality. Secondly, models currently project the strongest forcing to be within the central/northern Plains, farther away from the moisture plume moving north. At least as currently forecast, strong southwesterly/westerly winds aloft should overspread the southern/central Plains by late next week. This particular trend in guidance is recent and confidence is accordingly low, but model trends will continue to be monitored in the coming days. Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-505-070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ135-231-232-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-505-070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ135-231-232-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-505-070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ135-231-232-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 0237 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 237 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..05/07/25 ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 237 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC047-131-215-247-249-261-273-355-409-427-479-505-070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROOKS DUVAL HIDALGO JIM HOGG JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG NUECES SAN PATRICIO STARR WEBB ZAPATA GMZ135-231-232-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX BAFFIN BAY AND UPPER LAGUNA MADRE CORPUS CHRISTI AND NUECES BAYS THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 237 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 070640Z - 071300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 237 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 140 AM CDT Wed May 7 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of South Texas Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday morning from 140 AM until 800 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...A cluster of intense storms potentially including a couple of semi-discrete supercells are expected to cross Deep South Texas overnight, with locally significant severe weather possible, including very large hail and severe-caliber wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles south of Laredo TX to 40 miles south southeast of Corpus Christi TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 650. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Wed May 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible from the Florida Panhandle into North Florida, southeast Georgia, and central/coastal South Carolina on Friday. ...Synopsis... The elongated upper-level trough will begin to evolve into a stronger trough in the Northeast with a weak cutoff low developing in parts of the southern Plains and Mid-South. Much of the stronger mid-level winds will be offshore during the period. During the afternoon, remnant 30-40 kts mid-level winds are expected from the Florida Panhandle into South Carolina. Convection appears possible along a weak surface boundary as well as the Atlantic sea breeze. ...Florida Panhandle into South Carolina... Dewpoints near and south of the weak boundary should hold in the low/mid 60s F during the afternoon. Despite some potential cloud cover influence from convection within the Gulf, most guidance suggests that strong surface heating should occur. 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 25-35 kts of effective shear will support organized storms. Highest confidence in development is along the Florida sea breeze. The weak surface boundary may see more isolated coverage unless some clustering can occur. Isolated large hail and damaging winds will be possible. ..Wendt.. 05/07/2025 Read more