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More than 500 sick or dead deer have been reported in Eastern Washington since August. Bluetongue and epizootic hemorrhagic disease (EHD) are transmitted via biting gnats in drought years. Some bighorn sheep herds have also been affected by bluetongue. Spokane Spokesman-Review (Wash.), Oct 10, 2021

The South Moccasin Fire began Monday, October 4, 2021 around 12:45pm and has been declared 100% contained as of Friday, October 8, 2021. The cause of the fire remains under investigation. The fire was located about 7 miles northwest of Lewistown in the South Moccasin Mountain Range. Local resources from Fergus County, BLM and the DNRC responded. The fire burned in heavy timber and grass, mostly on private

The Twentyfive Mile fire, located 12 miles northwest of Chelan, WA, remains at 22,117 acres, with 62% containment, and 48 personnel assigned to the incident. Post fire work, including road repair and rehabilitation of bulldozer constructed fire suppression lines, is occurring. The area closure remains in effect, has been recently updated and will be re-evaluated in mid-October.  Due to the large burned area and road repair, hunters should plan their upcoming hunt outside of the Twenty-five Mile closure area and roads.   Shady Pass road (Forest Service road #5900) from the Entiat side (west side of #5900) up to Big Hill is now open, the east side from the pass to Lake Chelan remains closed while road repair is completed. Forest Service Road #8410, also known as Slide Ridge Road, is also closed. Heavy equipment traffic is also occurring on Mud Creek and Potato Creek roads, the upper portions of these roads are closed. Please abide by the closure and do not attempt to drive on these...

THREE PHASES OF WILDFIRE RECOVERY There are three phases of recovery following wildfires on federal lands: -       Fire Suppression Repair -       Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) -       Long-Term Recovery and Restoration o   Fire Suppression Repair is a series of immediate post-fire actions taken to repair damages and minimize potential soil erosion and impacts resulting from fire suppression activities and usually begins before the fire is contained, and before the demobilization of an Incident Management Team. This work repairs the hand and dozer fire lines, roads, trails, staging areas, safety zones, and drop points used during fire suppression efforts. o   Emergency Stabilization-Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) is a rapid assessment of burned watersheds by a BAER team to identify imminent post-wildfire threats to human life and safety, property, and critical natural or cultural resources on National Forest System...

 The lightning-caused American Fork Fire started on July 17, 2021 in the northeast Crazy Mountains, 24 miles southwest of Harlowton, Montana. This fire has been separated from the Divide Complex, and was under the command of the Albuquerque Zone Type 3 Team, led by Incident Commander Zach Saavedra, from August 22, to August 29. As of, August 29th, it was returned to a local Forest Service Type 4 organization. The IC is Wes Woodrome, with Greg Daniels as trainee. Repair efforts continue on the American Fork fire. Activity is moving more to mechanized equipment, repairing roads, and damage done by suppression actions. Tree felling will still continue as needed, supporting the repair. Preparations are being made for re-seeding the areas effected by suppression. The Baer Team, led by Dale White, has been assisting in coordinating activities. The incident will continue “right-sizing” as necessary to maintain financial responsibility while keeping production. As of the 1st, the...

This Thorne Creek Fire/West Lolo Complex InciWeb Page is not being regularly updated after August 29, 2021. It will be updated as closure information changes or if fire behavior and conditions warrant. NEW! (10/7/21)All closures associated with the Thorne Creek Fire (West Lolo Complex) have been lifted. Please exercise caution when traveling through a burned area as hazards exist. The Thorne Creek Fire is now 100% contained. Firefighters are continuing to patrol and monitor the fire when needed. Some interior smoldering/smoking may still be visible until a season ending event occurs, such as significant snowfall. Tips for traveling in or near a burned area: •Those traveling on Forest roads through burned areas should be prepared to remove downed trees that may have fallen across the roads or trails. •Snags – or dead, standing trees – are prone to fall without warning in burned areas. In windy conditions the danger of falling snags is heightened and visitors should always...

The Middle Fork Complex is being managed by a local Type 3 Incident Management Team.Evacuations: All vacuation levels have been dropped in the Oakridge and Westfir area by Lane County. For current evacuation information and an interactive map of evacuation areas, visit: www.lanecounty.org. Closures: Some National Forest System lands near the Middle Fork Complex fires are temporarily closed to provide for public safety. Please be sure to check current conditions before planning your trip to the Willamette National Forest. For more information on Pacific Northwest closures, visit tinyurl.com/4j3fxy8y. Management of the Kwis, Knoll, Packard, Windfall, Symbol Rock, Devil's Canyon, Larison Cove, Way, Warble, and Journey Fires, has been transferred back to the Willamette National Forest.    ADDITIONAL FIRE INFORMATION:Fire Information: (541) 782-2283Facebook: @MiddleForkComplex 

No watches are valid as of Thu Oct 7 12:46:02 UTC 2021.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Oct 7 12:46:02 UTC 2021.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A brief tornado and locally damaging winds are possible through midday over a portion of the Florida Panhandle. A few strong storms with gusty winds and marginally severe hail will be possible from mid-afternoon into this evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin. ...FL Panhandle... Similar to the past couple mornings, remnant overnight convection may pose a near-term threat for a brief tornado and locally damaging winds. Low-level flow is generally anemic, but regenerative updrafts in the presence of convective outflow has yielded transient supercell structures within the past couple hours. While a tornado occurring is unlikely, 0-1 km SRH around 100 m2/s2 per EVX/TLH VWPs in the presence of a richly moist air mass characterized by 72-74 F surface dew points will support a low-probability threat through about midday. See MCD 1808 for further near-term information. ...Eastern Great Basin... Within the left-exit region of an intense upper jet centered off the CA coast, a series of low-amplitude impulses embedded within the southwesterly flow regime will approach the Great Basin region this afternoon. Low-level moisture will remain limited, but moderately steep mid-level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km should support meager MLCAPE of 250-500 J/kg by peak heating. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within this regime towards mid-afternoon. The inverted-V thermodynamic profiles in conjunction with around 30 kt effective bulk shear might support a few strong wind gusts and a couple instances of marginally severe hail with the stronger storms. ...Lower Midwest to the Cumberland Plateau... Upper low over east-central MO will continue to drift north across the Mid-MS Valley. Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon immediately east of the low across IL and likely separately in a weak warm theta-e advection plume across the Cumberland Plateau. Steeper mid-level lapse rates will be confined near the low within a weakly sheared environment. Small hail is possible, but severe hail appears unlikely. Farther east, weak low-level flow and 0-1 km SRH holding below 100 m2/s2 should mitigate a tornado threat. ..Grams/Mosier.. 10/07/2021 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Oct 7 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized
cloudiness and thunderstorms over portions of Central America and
the adjacent eastern Pacific waters. This system is expected to
move westward and emerge over the eastern Pacific Ocean later today
or tonight. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive
for gradual development over the next few days, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the system moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0436 AM CDT Thu Oct 07 2021 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z CORRECTED FOR WORDING THIRD PARAGRAPH ...DISCUSSION... ...Sunday/Day 4 to Wednesday/Day 7... The medium-range models are in relatively good agreement on Sunday, moving an upper-level trough quickly eastward into the southern High Plains. Ahead of the approaching trough, low-level moisture will advect northward across east Texas, eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. As is forecast by the ECMWF, a corridor of moderate instability is expected to develop from northeast Texas into eastern Oklahoma by early to mid evening. Thunderstorms should first develop along a dryline across west-central Oklahoma, with convection quickly growing upscale and moving eastward across eastern parts of the southern Plains. Model forecasts suggest a focused band of large-scale ascent and strong deep-layer shear will overspread the southern Plains Sunday evening. This should support severe storm development, with supercells likely. Supercells with large hail and wind damage will be possible. A tornado threat will also be possible as the low-level jet ramps up quickly during the early evening. However, uncertainties still exist concerning the amount of instability that will develop and type of storms that will form. If a squall-line organizes quickly, then the favored severe threat would be wind damage and large hail. At this time, confidence in a severe event is great enough to maintain the threat area and add a 30 percent contour in for parts of southeastern Oklahoma. On Monday, the upper-level trough and an associated cold front are forecast to move into the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorms will be likely along and ahead of some portions of the front from the morning into the afternoon. Although instability is forecast to remain weak in most areas ahead of the front, strong deep-layer shear will still support severe storm development. The greatest potential for severe storms would be across parts of Arkansas and southern Missouri during the morning and early afternoon as an MCS moves across the region. However, there are uncertainties concerning how fast the front will move eastward and the positioning of convection at the start of the period. If a linear MCS is ongoing at the start of the period, then that would affect the east-to-west position of the severe threat area. On Tuesday, an upper-level low is forecast to develop across the central Rockies as an upper-level trough moves across the southwestern U.S. A powerful 80 to 100 knot jet is forecast by the GFS to eject northeastward across New Mexico and into the southern High Plains. Ahead of the system, low-level moisture and instability will rapidly increase according to the GFS. Under this scenario, moderate instability would be expected to develop by afternoon in much of central/east Texas, Oklahoma and central/ eastern Kansas. This would involve numerous thunderstorms developing just to the east of a southern and central Plains dryline. Storms would quickly obtain a severe threat and move eastward across the region during the late afternoon and early to mid evening. Surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s F along with moderate instability and strong deep-layer shear would support supercell development. Supercells would be capable of producing large hail, wind damage and tornadoes. However, the ECMWF is much slower with the upper-level system. This would mean that the event would be delayed until either the overnight period on Tuesday or even into Wednesday across the southern and central Plains. Given this uncertainty, will maintain a 15 percent area for Tuesday. If the trough is faster then the threat area could need to be upgraded. But if the trough is slower, then a threat area would need to be added for Wednesday. ...Wednesday Night/Day 7 and Thursday/Day 8... From Wednesday night into Thursday, the models move the upper-level trough northeastward across the north-central states as a cold front advances rapidly eastward across the Mississippi, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Thunderstorms will be likely along portions of the front both Wednesday and Thursday afternoon and evening. Although a severe threat will be possible on both days, uncertainty is substantial at this range in the forecast. Read more

Total wheat production in Washington state plummeted nearly 50% to 87.1 million bushels, down from 166 million bushels in 2020. The yield was just 39.1 bushels per acre, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual Small Grains 2021 Summary. The lack of rain and heat really hurt the crop. Spring wheat production in 2021 was 16 million bushels, half of 33.2 million bushels produced in 2020, with yields also falling by more than half to 30 bushels per acre in 2021 from 61 bushels per acre in 2020. Winter wheat harvests and yields were almost halved, falling to 70.9 million bushels at 42 bushels per acre in 2021 from 133 million bushels at 76 bushels per acre in 2020. This was the smallest wheat harvest in 57 years, stated the program director for the Washington Grain Commission in Spokane. Washington barley growers planted about 70,000 acres of barley in 2021, compared to 90,000 acres in 2020. The harvest amounted to 2.6 million bushels at 38 bushels per acre from 6.4 million bushels at 90 bushels per acre in 2020. Recent yields in Washington state have been about 70 bushels per acre. This was the lowest barley harvest since 1977. The Seattle Times (Wash.), Oct. 6, 2021 Exceptional drought gripped 38% of Washington state. Washington’s drought has been very hard on farmers, especially in the drier eastern part of the state. Dryland farmers or those irrigating from rain-fed streams have suffered. Washington’s wheat production looks to be about 93 million bushels of wheat this year, the lowest output since 1973, according to the chief executive of the Washington Grain Commission. Last year, the state produced nearly 166 million bushels. The Seattle Times (Wash.), Sept 6, 2021 The wheat crop in Washington state is estimated at 117 million bushels, down from 165 million bushels last year. Some parts of the state experienced a complete crop failure, according to the executive director of the Washington Association of Wheat Growers. About 90% of the wheat is unirrigated. The drought is being described as the worst since 1977. Some farmers are certain to be bankrupted by this drought. The soft white winter wheat grown in Oregon and Idaho has also been damaged by drought. Associated Press News (New York), Aug 11, 2021

Located 17 miles northwest of Plain, Washington, the Nason Fire is approximately 1,269 acres, burning in very steep, rocky terrain that is difficult to access. Its initial position high on a north facing slope along the Nason Ridge made it dangerous for firefighters to directly attack the fire. Fire managers then implemented indirect firefighting strategies, which were the safest available tactics due to the fire’s location.Over the September 18-19 weekend, almost 1.5 inches of rain fell in the vicinity of the Nason Fire. Firefighters have started rehabilitation work on the fire, which consists mainly of chipping fuels and hazard tree removal on the 6700 and 6702 roads. Firefighters utilized Road 6700 as a containment line along the west and north edges of the fire; a portion of the road is closed for public safety as crews continue working to mitigate hazards. Smoke Information: The Forest Service works closely with other federal and state partners to predict and mitigate smoke...

Drought in North Dakota has been so harsh that it has been compared to the Dust Bowl and 1988. Forage production was poor, due to drought and intense heat, leaving ranchers looking ahead to winter, wondering how to feed the livestock. Auction barns have been busy. This year ranchers have already sold nearly 25% more cattle than last year, according to the North Dakota Stockmen's Association. NPR (Washington, D.C.), Oct. 6, 2021

Drought and the high cost of labor have devastated the pear industry in the Rogue Valley. Harvest was about 25% of normal, and the fruit was smaller and of a lower grade. Irrigation water only flowed through early summer as intense heat gripped the valley. A pear grower in Talent opted to pull out the pear trees on his 75 acres near Talent. Medford Mail Tribune (Ore.), Oct 6, 2021

The East Bay Municipal Utility District announced that it would begin drawing water from the Sacramento River to increase water supplies. Through February, EBMUB intends to pump 35,250 acre-feet, or about 11 billion gallons, of water, which may affect the taste or smell of the water. The price tag for purchasing and delivering the supplemental water is nearly $15 million, which is being covered by budgeted operations costs. The district intends to pursue additional water transfers for 2022. EBMUD provides water for 1.4 million people in Alameda and Contra Costa counties and usually pulls from the Mokelumne River. KPIX-TV CBS 5 San Francisco (Calif.), Oct 4, 2021

Los Angeles shifted its water use and began using less from the State Water Project in favor of using more stored Colorado River from the Metropolitan Water District. The switch leaves 20,000 acre-feet available from the SWP for use by communities. Southern Californians were urged to redouble their conservation efforts and continue to use less water. Los Angeles Times (Calif.), Oct 6, 2021