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The Miller Fire, located off Highway 281 near Falfurrias in Brooks County, started on the afternoon of March 4, 2022. Multiple local fire departments responded to assist with the wildfire along with state resources from Texas A&M Forest Service and Texas Intrastate Fire Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS). Texas A&M Forest Service is currently in unified command with the local jurisdiction.The fire ignited under warm, dry, and conditions with dry vegetation and was actively burning with extreme fire behavior. Coordinated efforts from aerial and ground resources proved to be very effective in slowing fire progression. Aviation resources, including three Single Engine Air Tankers (SEATs), a Type 1 Helicopter, and an Air Attack (AA) assisted ground crews with retardant and water drops to slow the spread of the fire and protect residential structures. Forward progression was stopped. A shelter has been set up at the Ed Rachel Memorial Library located at 203 S Calixto Ave in Falfurrias. American...

No watches are valid as of Tue Mar 8 15:00:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Mar 8 15:00:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 AM CST Tue Mar 08 2022 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms exists tonight over parts of the central Gulf Coast. ...Synopsis... A series of mid/upper-level shortwave troughs, digging southward from western Canada, will reinforce the mean western CONUS trough, despite the ejection of an initially strong basal shortwave now over southern CO, NM and northwestern Chihuahua. The latter perturbation will deamplify somewhat, yet remain a well-defined shortwave trough, as it reaches parts of western KS, western OK, and northwest TX around 00Z. By 12Z, the trough should weaken further, with its 500-mb vorticity center reaching southern IL. A more-subtle, southern-stream perturbation -- initially apparent in moisture-channel imagery over the middle TX coast and vicinity -- should eject northeastward to the northern MS/northwestern AL region today, with some convective vorticity supplementation possible. This feature should accelerate northeastward near or offshore from the Mid-Atlantic Coast by the end of the period. At the surface, a cold front was drawn on the 11Z chart from offshore of New England southwestward across the SC coastal plain, becoming quasistationary southwestward across southwestern GA, across Choctawhatchee Bay and the mouth of the Mississippi River, and the northwestern Gulf. A weak frontal-wave low should develop over the southeastern LA/southeastern MS area this evening and ripple northeastward/inland along the front toward the GA/NC/TN border region by 12Z. Slight warm-frontal/northwestward motion should occur to its northeast, and cold-frontal advance to its southwest. A separate cold front, related to northern-stream upper-air processes, was analyzed across eastern ND, western SD, northeastern WY, and western MT. This boundary should move to parts of the upper Great Lakes, central Plains and central Rockies through the period, remaining well north of the first frontal zone. ..Central Gulf Coast... Isolated thunderstorms are possible throughout today and this evening along/ahead of the front -- with greater convective coverage in the zone of strongest large-scale lift (related to the ejecting TX Gulf Coast perturbation) behind the boundary. All this activity should remain non-severe, amidst little or no surface-based instability and moisture/buoyancy too weak for a substantial large-hail concern. However, late tonight after 06Z, a combination of strengthening warm-sector moisture and low-level lift near the low will support the potential for widely scattered thunderstorms moving northeastward over and just east of the frontal zone, offering isolated damaging gusts and a marginal tornado threat. The late-night activity also will be supported by large-scale lift in the form of strengthening low-level warm advection, collocated with a plume of moist advection and transport in a broadening LLJ. Surface dew points in the mid/upper 60s F will spread inland somewhat, with values near 70 F possible along the immediate coast and offshore. Though lapse rates in about the lowest 1/2 km and perhaps a few other layers beneath the 700 mb level near-surface lapse rates will remain weak, forecast soundings suggest MLCAPE near 1000 J/kg is possible over the Mississippi River mouth and from around MOB/PNS southward, and 500 J/kg across the rest of the outlook area. Though the LLJ core/speed max should remain north of the front, the nocturnal LLJ broadening across the boundary and into the warm sector will also result in enlarging low-level shear/hodographs, supporting effective SRH in the 150-250 J/kg range. Meanwhile, tightening of gradient flow aloft, related to the passage of both aforementioned shortwave troughs to the north, should help effective-shear magnitudes to strengthen to the 40-50-kt range. Minor eastward expansion of the outlook area is to give more room for potential movement of prefrontal convection over the western FL Panhandle by 12Z tomorrow. ..Edwards/Mosier.. 03/08/2022 Read more

An increase in fires occurred between March 3 and March 5 with the South Carolina Forestry Commission recording 106 blazes that charred more than 1,500 acres statewide. The spate of fires led the South Carolina Forestry Commission to issue a Red Flag Fire Alert on March 7 to last several days. People are strongly encouraged to forego outdoor burning. The Post and Courier (Charleston, S.C.), March 7, 2022

Cash grain prices are at record highs with drought in winter wheat-producing areas of the U.S. and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Prices could climb higher still. Few farmers have any grain in the bin to sell in Montana as production was just 49% of the 10-year average due to drought in 2021. As Montana enters a second year of drought, farmers need good spring moisture to produce grain in 2022. Wheat in the Southern Plains is parched and not faring well, but could improve with moisture. Associated Press News (New York), March 5, 2022

No watches are valid as of Mon Mar 7 15:04:02 UTC 2022.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Mar 7 15:04:02 UTC 2022.

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/APPALACHIANS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms from the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians to the coastal Mid-Atlantic today into this evening. ...Tennessee Valley/Appalachians to Mid-Atlantic coast... A lead shortwave trough/related jet streak, which are embedded within phasing westerlies, will quick spread northeastward from the Midwest to the Northeast and New England by tonight, while a secondary southern-stream trough evolves the southern Rockies. This will result in neutral height tendencies/limited overall forcing for ascent, as well as some mid-level warming, where moisture is more readily available across the Southeast States/southern Appalachians ahead of a cold front. Early this morning, a nearly continuous northeast/southwest-oriented line of thunderstorms extends from central Kentucky to Middle Tennessee and northern Mississippi. There has been a general updraft/downdraft intensity decrease in the predawn hours, but the organization of the line has nonetheless been maintained in the presence of weak buoyancy and very strong low-level/deep-layer shear. On the southern end, across the Tennessee Valley and southern Appalachians vicinity, low-level convergence may tend to weaken today, and while considerable cloud cover exists ahead of the cold front/convective line, a semi-moist air mass persists (60s F surface dewpoints) and a modest intensity boost could occur into this afternoon as the boundary layer warms. This may result in the potential maintenance of a semi-broken squall line and other bands of storms. Isolated damaging winds are the primary hazard. Farther north, across the central/northern Appalachians vicinity to the coastal Mid-Atlantic, a modest intensity/organizational uptick may occur near the cold front this afternoon as the cyclone continues to deepen from the Ohio Valley toward the Northeast/New England. Surface dewpoints will be limited to the 50s F, but a plume to relatively steep mid-level lapse rates may contribute to weak near-surface-rooted buoyancy, potentially with areas of a coupled hundred J/kg SBCAPE. This may be sufficient for an increasing potential for convectively augmented wind gusts, even in the relative absence of lightning, across the Appalachians this afternoon, and east of the mountains and toward the coastal Mid-Atlantic by early evening. Localized wind damage may occur. ..Guyer/Mosier.. 03/07/2022 Read more

South central Nebraska farmers were breaking up the ground before planting or running their pivot to moisten the soil to avoid damaging farm implements because the soil is so hard and dry. One farmer was fearful of using equipment in a dry field and accidentally sparking a fire. BrownfieldOnline (Jefferson City, Mo.), March 7, 2022

Oregon Gov. Kate Brown declared a state of emergency in Klamath County as the snowpack in the Klamath Basin was 60% of normal. Low snowpack and streamflow indicate that this will be a difficult year in the Klamath Basin as wells were already running dry. For central and southern Oregon, this is a third consecutive year of drought. Oregon endured its third driest period from October 2019 to September 2021 since records began in the late 1800s, per a climatologist at Oregon State University. The Oregonian (Portland), March 7, 2022

The Groove fire began on the afternoon of March 5, 2022 under dry and windy conditions in Duval County, west of Benavides near Hwy 16 and County Road 310. The fire spread quickly under windy conditions and very active fire behavior. Texas A&M Forest Service responded with dozers and engines with crews to support suppression efforts. TAMFS is in unified command with local resources. Aerial resources were also utilized with an Air Attack (AA) offering aerial surveillance and a Type 1 Helicopter performing water bucket drops. Numerous fire departments were also on scene with additional departments and agencies providing support to the incident. The coordinated effort of aerial and ground resources was effective and fire behavior diminished. Dozer work to construct and complete containment line along the fire perimeter while engine crews conduct patrol and mop up of the

On 3/03/2022 a wildfire started in Potter County off of Highway 287. Potter County Fire Rescue, National Parks Service, and Texas A&M Forest Service are on scene. Fire is estimated at 60 acres and growing. The Fain Gas plant has been evacuated at this

The Adkins Avenue Fire in Bay County has burned 1,400 acres through March 5 and was 30% contained, according to the Florida Forest Service. The blaze consumed two homes, damaged a dozen homes and led to the evacuation of 600 homes. Bay and Calhoun counties have burn bans, according to the Florida Forest Service Chipola Forestry Center. The area is in moderate drought with rainfall deficits of more than four inches in the last 30 days. The Adkins Avenue Fire is one of 143 active wildfires that have charred roughly 4,700 acres in Florida, including the 1,600-acre Bertha Swamp Fire in Gulf County. UPI (Washington, D.C.), March 5, 2022

An estimated 6% of the eggs that wild winter-run chinook salmon laid in the Sacramento River during the 2021 summer survived drought, so wildlife officials are taking extreme steps to protect the endangered population. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service released 400,000 juvenile salmon on March 2 from a hatchery into the river, after releasing almost 125,000 last month. Releases this year have been more than double that of releases in 2021. San Francisco Chronicle (Calif.), March 2, 2022

Aridification and drought are dropping the level of Lake Powell, leaving fewer options for putting a boat in the water as 2021 brought the water level down another 45 feet to about 25% of capacity. There will be one access open in March for speedboats and houseboats. The dock at Rainbow Bridge is no longer useable, and boat tours will not go there this summer. One of the guides operating a fishing guide service thinks it’s the beginning of the end for Lake Powell, fearing that the reservoir will return to just a stretch of river this decade. AZ Central (Phoenix), March 1, 2022

February runoff in the upper Missouri River was 78% of average due to below average snowpack and dry soils. Mountain snowpack is about 80% of normal. Starting mid-March, releases from Gavins Point Dam will increase to offer more flow in the river for barges and boats. Omaha World-Herald (Neb.), March 3, 2022

Shasta Lake was one of the many cities that learned that allocations from the Central Valley Project would be limited in 2022 and asked its customers to reduce water use and outdoor watering to conserve water. The Bella Vista Water District, serving Redding, Bella Vista and Palo Cedro, already asked its customers to reduce water use by 40%. Redding Record Searchlight (Calif.), March 3, 2022

On March 4, 2022, the Rest Stop Fire originated at the rest stop on I44, west of the town of Iowa Park, Texas. Iowa Park VFD requested assistance from Texas A&M Forest Service (TAMFS) due to access issues. TAMFS dozers from Boomtown Task Force, along with Texas Intrastate Mutual Aid System (TIFMAS) Strike Team, are on scene assisting with containment efforts. Elevated fire conditions, rough terrain, and heavy brush have contributed to the fire spreading rapidly. The fire is in Wildland Urban Interface, 4 structures were identified, 2 of those structures were directly saved by responders, but 1 outbuilding was lost in the fire.While there are no road closures or evacuation orders, it is discouraged for non-responders to drive around the area due to emergency vehicles in the area and low visibility from the smoke. TAMFS is working in unified command with local